The U.S., Iran, and ‘lethal support’ to Shia militias in Iraq

February 10, 2007

In talking to reporters yesterday about Iran providing weapons or technology for Iraqi militants, Defense Secretary Robert Gates sounded a little vague. Referring to “pretty good” evidence, Gates said, “I think there’s some serial numbers, there may be some markings on some of the projectile fragments that we found” that point to Iran.” For those keeping score at home, that’s three qualifiers in 20 words. (thanks to G.D. for the tip)

And yet, there’s this report on the front page of the New York Times today.

The most lethal weapon directed against American troops in Iraq is an explosive-packed cylinder that United States intelligence asserts is being supplied by Iran.

The assertion of an Iranian role in supplying the device to Shiite militias reflects broad agreement among American intelligence agencies, although officials acknowledge that the picture is not entirely complete.

In interviews, civilian and military officials from a broad range of government agencies provided specific details to support what until now has been a more generally worded claim, in a new National Intelligence Estimate, that Iran is providing “lethal support” to Shiite militants in Iraq.

At this point, given what we know, there’s probably reason for skepticism. Let’s start with the journalist who wrote the NYT story.

Saturday’s New York Times features an article, posted at the top of its Web site late Friday, that suggests very strongly that Iran is supplying the “deadliest weapon aimed at American troops” in Iraq. The author notes, “Any assertion of an Iranian contribution to attacks on Americans in Iraq is both politically and diplomatically volatile.”

What is the source of this volatile information? Nothing less than “civilian and military officials from a broad range of government agencies.”

Sound pretty convincing? It may be worth noting that the author is Michael R. Gordon, the same Times reporter who, on his own, or with Judith Miller, wrote some of the key, and badly misleading or downright inaccurate, articles about Iraqi WMDs in the run-up to the 2003 invasion.

In fact, he wrote with Miller the most widely criticized one of all, even by the Times itself, the Sept. 8, 2002, “aluminum tubes” story that proved so influential, especially since the administration trumpeted it on TV talk shows.

Indeed, today’s front-pager, Glenn Greenwald notes, “does nothing, literally, but mindlessly recite administration claims about Iran’s weapons-supplying activities without the slightest questioning, investigation, or presentation of ample counter-evidence. The entire article is nothing more than one accusatory claim about Iran after the next, all emanating from the mouths of anonymous military and ‘intelligence officials’ without the slightest verified evidence, and Gordon just mindlessly repeats what he has been told in one provocative paragraph after the next.”

For that matter, this is not exactly the ideal time for the Bush administration to be presenting evidence against Iran.

In little noted comments on Feb. 2, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley acknowledged that the Iran briefing washeld back because it was “overstated” and not “focused on the facts.”

HADLEY: The reason we put the intelligence briefing on hold was really two reasons. One, we thought we’d better get the NIE out so people could see the full context, which you now can. And secondly, quite frankly, we want to make sure that if we put out intelligence, the intelligence community and MNFI can stand behind it, because we are sensitive to try and put out the facts as accurately as we can. …

Q And now [the briefing has] been pushed back. Can we conclude anything from that other than people looked at the intelligence that was set to offered and said, this is not good enough?

MR. HADLEY: No, I wouldn’t –

Q Does that mean there was a willingness to overstate it?

MR. HADLEY: The truth is, quite frankly, we thought the briefing overstated. And we sent it back to get it narrowed and focused on the facts.

But a new report in the National Journal states that it was the intelligence community, not the White House, that demanded the briefing be “scrubbed” of overstated claims.

Honestly, it’s like deja vu all over again.

Yeah, I just read that that LIEberman guy, (I usually affort respect to respectable human beings), says let’s get Iran. He’s “seen” the evidence. He knows Iran is “killing our troops in Iraq.” Mr. LIEberman’s predisposed ideas about the boogy-man in the Middle East needs to be checked just at the journalist who wrote the propaganda piece on the front page of the NYT, just as the editor’s desk agent who let such a fluff piece become front page material, just as this WH which as hoodwinked us into untold misery, death, destruction , and a future wrouht with continual terrorism and fear. Yes, it seems, this daisy chain must be checked, or surely we’ll continue to go to hell in a hand basket, just a little faster. -Kevo

  • As far as I know it is the Sunni insurgents that are using IEDs. I have never heard of the Shia using IEDs against the US. This whole thing sound phony to me.

  • Uh yeah. I guess people used the tons of HEX that went missing from Al-Quaa [sic] to patch holes in their walls.

    And of course, when undercover agents from the GAO were able to purchase all sorts of goodies from the DoD Rummage Sale that’s just a fluke. But Iran isn’t allowed to have sloppy weapons re-sale practices. No black market for you! And of course it couldn’t be common criminals acting for their own screwed up reasons. President Ahmenlongname is personally packaging the things before they are sent off!

    But you know what? Thanks to Shrubya & Co (TM) there’s not a fuck of a lot we can do about it, because after Stay the Course Parts I through XVI we can’t really muster much of a response. So fine, keep rattling those sabres boys. It might help drown out the sound of the whole world laughing at the clowns who set out to destroy an army and wound up trashing their own.

  • I suggest every high school junior and senior in the US be required to view the film “Syriana” so that they can get a handle on what’s happening here. Of course, mandatory viewings of “An Inconvenient Truth” must occur as a corollary.

    I’m waiting to be told that “British Intelligence” has determined that Iran is seeking yellow cake uranium from Niger.

  • So why, if this clown’s hackery is so obvious to so many, does the NYT allow this administration sock puppet to do the exact same thing he did before AGAIN? Is there no sentient life left in their organization at all, or have they all sold their soul to the devil without restraint?

    It’s one thing to fool the world once, but to be allowed to do it again and have the world powerless to stop it is shameful beyond belief.

  • The American Public has overwhelmingly said ENOUGH. Anybody with a weapon to sale or money to buy is in the game but not officially. Americans and Congress have made it clear that we do not want to widen this war. We know that this administration is looking for any reason to attack Iran. We want it known that Bush/Cheney will be removed from office as a threat to National Security if Iran is attacked without prior approval of the Senate…before impeachment proceedings ever begin. Iran is demonstrating that they are willing to talk but this Administration would rather threaten war than even try a diplomatic approach. This is being viewed by the rest of the world as American Imperialism. We should go out of our way to find peaceful solutions and become unified with Iran to fight terror rather than each other. We should at least try.

  • “I think there’s some serial numbers, there may be some markings on some of the projectile fragments that we found” that point to Iran”

    Yes, they are absolutely convinced that these markings maybe could point to the undisputed possibly of a probable link to Iran. And the White House is completely assuming that this information is, potentially and without a shadow of a doubt, iffy.

    And people have a problem with that professor we talked about who’s studying the possible existence of Bigfoot.

  • Thanks for addressing the provenance of this article.

    I found the whole thing tendentious:

    “Attacks using the device have doubled in the past year”–from what number to what?

    “In the last three months of 2006, attacks using the weapons accounted for a significant portion of Americans killed and wounded in Iraq, though less than a quarter of the total”–what’s significant? how much less than a quarter?

    “Because the weapon can be fired from roadsides and is favored by Shiite militias, it has become a serious threat in Baghdad. Only a small fraction of the roadside bombs used in Iraq are explosively formed penetrators. But the device produces more casualties per attack than other types of roadside bombs.”–what fraction? what are the average number of casualties per attack?

    “Some American intelligence experts believe that Hezbollah has provided some of the logistical support and training to Shiite militias in Iraq, but they assert that such steps would not be taken without Iran’s blessing.”–Some experts…maybe the ones who used to work for Feith?

    Michael Gordon cowrote a terrific book, Cobra II. I hope he’s not angling for access that will help him write Cobra III…Or how I stopped worrying and learned to love Iran.

    Bruce

  • What about the story I read that said that wealthy Saudis (our allies) are bankrolling the violence against American troops in Iraq? True, or not? And if true, what will the Saudi’s buddy GWB do about it? Attack that country, too? Yaright.

  • Gordon makes it clear that he has multiple sources for his story. He clearly points out that he had cross-checked the story with intelligence analysts who had been skeptical about previous claims of Iranian involvement. And he points out that these skeptics have changed their minds after being presented with new damning evidence, which dispells all doubts. Moreover Gordon is no pro-Administration shill. He is the coauthor of “Cobra II”, an account of the Iraq war which is highly critical of Administration strategy.

  • Miller was at the height of his deception in September of 2002; the Iraq War began in March 2003. That’s six months. It’s now February 2007, and the Miller-esque saber-rattling has been going full steam since October 2006. That’s four months.

    Mathematically, we may well be at war with Iran by sometime in April. It will not be “Mr. Bush” is at war with Iran; it will be “the United States of America” is at war with Iran. Dragging that pompous idiot from the Oval Office after the fact will do nothing to lessen the issue; one does not revoke the fact that the barn has burned down the day after the fire. It does not work that way.

    There are three alternatives. The first is to shut down the Iraqi expedition within that sixty-day time frame. The second is to drag that imbecilical chimp-in-chief from his position of authority—again, within that same said sixty-day time frame.

    The third is to accept the fact that the United States is going into yet another war; one that will, based on the current condition of this nation’s conventional force status, could involve a nuclear deployment….

  • I notice that he appears to have made no effort to investigate other channels by which Iranian weapons might have come into Iraq, and cites no experts in global weapons smuggling other than American intelligence officials. I also see no attempt to verify the claim that the allegedly critical component could not be manufactured in Iraq, either before the war or now. He is probably reliable in his description of the physical details of the EFP devices he describes, but all the attributions about where they come from or who got them to the roadside seems vague, and worded in tendentious ways that I have to be suspicious of.

  • Wow, flashback!! Remember the earnest fervour with which those dedicated journalists over at Fox announced a cache of French Roland missiles had been discovered buried in the sand in Iraq? I think this was some time in 2002. Bearing recent serial numbers, the reporter nearly sobbed in anguish – those dirty backstabbing cheese-eating surrender monkeys; was there no limit to their perfidy?

    Somebody helpfully pointed out that the Roland production line had shut down, having completed the last of this very successful design, sometime in the mid-80’s. Therefore a recent serial number was practically impossible. Oops.

    I’ve often wondered why the U.S. didn’t simply plant some nuclear evidence, to be discovered with round eyes and hushed voices; “..well, lookie here…”

    Anyway, suggestion that Iran is a freebooting international arms dealer who doesn’t look too closely at its customers credentials could backfire. It’s pretty well known who the world’s biggest arms dealer is, and it’s not Iran.

  • I believe the only thing that will prevent war with Iran is Presidunce Bush’s impeachment. We are presently relying on Shrub’s “gut feeling” to not attack Iran while experiencing deja vu to the demonization of Iran as we saw before Bush’s illegal war of aggression in Iraq. All of Shrub’s new handpicked lackeys that will push forward on his next war are in place and offering conflicting statements about the US’s intentions. One lesson from WW I is that opposing sides can not amass such large forces in such close proximity without great risk of everything getting out of control. Supposedly our large military fleet is in place off the coast of Iran “to contain” Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which is laughable. A blind man can see our forces are there to bait Iran into a retaliatory strike after Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities. Here is another story that “US forces are ready for Iran strike.” This report claims that Shrub is undecided while Evil Dick is supporting a war with Iran. Shrub has literally screwed up everything he has touched during his misadministration. Now we are once again relying on his impaired judgement. It is high time for President Pelosi if for no other reason than the actions of Shrub, Pencil Dick and their minions should fall under the RICCO laws concerning organized crime for the way they have intentionally mislead an entire country and enriched themselves and their partners. How much more should Americans have to endure because the Republiscum are unwilling to acknowledge they backed a failure.

  • Just wondering — Would these explosive devices — the “deadliest weapons aimed at American troops” — have killed anywhere near as many soldiers if the US had provided adequate armor for the Army’s humvees?

    Seems as if it would have been a better investment than the $8 billion in cash it sent to Viceroy (!) Paul Bremer to pay “ghost” Iraqi employees (per his recent Congressional testimony).

  • I’m late to the table as usual, but no matter. I’m weary of all the back and forth over disputed evidence of Iranian or Syrian support for one Iraqi insurgency group or another Sunni led anti-American militia. I’m so tired and frightened and disgusted with the goddamn ‘defenders of Freedom and Democracy’ because, you know what they’re doing don’t you all? They’re going to kill us all eventually. Oh, it’s going to take a long time but that’s the only way to win the ‘War on Terror’. And we sit down at our keyboards after reading the latest ‘leaks from unofficial sources’ in Washington or London and we fire off a post or a blog saying we’re onto these bastards and we’ll expose their lies and their distortions and then we’ll elect some Democrats next time. That’ll stop this damn nonsense. But it won’t because if you try to stop them, you become a terrorist and they’re gonna kill you. Not right away, and not necessarily with bombs or guns. They’ll kill you with the War Without End because that’s what a War on Terror is and they decide who the terrorists are and they’ve gutted the Constitution, and destroyed our civil rights and they’re not done yet, not by a long shot.
    Goodnight everybody, and Good luck.

    Dr Sardonicus

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