For months, it seemed as if Republicans, gearing up for the campaign season, were living in some kind of bizarro world in which they wanted to run on, instead of away from, the war in Iraq. I never quite understood the logic of emphasizing a disastrous war that Americans have grown to deeply resent, but the GOP, which is pretty good at this campaigning stuff, seemed pretty confident in the strategy.
That, at least, was the idea in the early summer. Now, Republicans seem to have given up on that game plan.
Four months ago, the White House offered a set of clear political directions to Republicans heading into the midterm elections: embrace the war in Iraq as critical to the antiterrorism fight and belittle Democrats as advocates of a “cut and run” policy of weakness.
With three weeks until Election Day, Republican candidates are barely mentioning Iraq on the campaign trail and in their television advertisements.
Even President Bush, continuing to attack Democrats for opposing the war, has largely dropped his call of “stay the course” and replaced it with a more nuanced promise of flexibility.
It is the Democrats who have seized on Iraq as a central issue. In debates and in speeches, candidates are pummeling Republicans with accusations of a failed war.
What a concept. There was some talk not too long ago that Dems would shy away from “the GOP’s turf” and campaign on domestic policy, instead of the war and national security. In other words, some Dems seriously suggested we replay 2002 and 2004 all over again, as if the strategy worked the last two cycles.
Fortunately, those suggestions were ignored. Iraq is front and center, where it should be.
Taken together, the discussion on the campaign trail suggests just how much of a problem the Iraq war has become for Republicans. It represents a startling contrast with the two national elections beginning in 2002 with the preparation for the Iraq invasion, in which Republicans used the issue to keep Democrats on the run on foreign policy and national security.
The development also suggests that what has been a classic strategy of Mr. Bush’s senior adviser, Karl Rove — to turn a weakness into a strength — is not working as well as the White House had hoped.
“As the Iraq war gets more unpopular, the environment for Republican candidates erodes,” said Mark Campbell, a Republican strategist who represents several Congressional candidates, including Representative Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, who is fighting for re-election in one of the toughest races.
“Only in an election year this complicated can Republicans be happy that Mark Foley knocked the Iraq war off the front page,” Mr. Campbell said.
Matt Bennett, a founder of Third Way, told the NYT, “For the first time in modern memory, Democrats are actually on the offensive when it comes to national security…. It is really stunning.” It shouldn’t be; this is simply overdue.
So, if Republicans don’t want to talk about Iraq, and they can’t rely on the “family values” pitch anymore, what’s the campaign message? The far-right Washington Times reported today that the GOP is “trying to shift the focus to the economy.” That may not be the right idea, either.
Through September, the growth in hourly wages was flat or negative for 27 of the previous 29 months, according to Labor Department data….Workers are barely keeping up. Health care, wages and energy prices are consumers’ top three economic concerns, according to a Gallup poll in September.
“That has to do with things like stagnant wages, fears of jobs being outsourced, income security. These are on people’s minds, particularly in lower- and middle-income areas,” said Dennis Jacobe, chief economist in Charlotte, N.C., for Gallup.
“I think it’s quite clear to people that their paychecks are being squeezed when they try to meet their family budgets,” said Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for the liberal Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “There’s a disconnect between overall economic performance and paychecks of working families.”
Honestly, if Dems don’t excel this year, we might as well give up.