The week that changed nothing

September 18, 2007

Last week was supposed to be a crossroads in the debate over Iraq policy. Testimony from Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker would captivate Capitol Hill; a prime-time speech from the president that pointed to the end of the surge would bring some comfort to the nation; and a controversial ad from MoveOn.org would galvanize those inclined to support the administration’s policy. Everything would be different.

At least, that’s what we were told would happen. David Broder, for example, said the MoveOn ad “was disgraceful, and it probably did serious damage to the effort to shorten the Iraq war.” Indeed, Glenn Greenwald noted today that the media establishment were in complete agreement about the political landscape.

* Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray, The Washington Post: “MoveOn.org provided Republicans a life raft when it ran a full-page newspaper advertisement Monday taunting Petraeus as ‘General Betray Us.'”

* Time’s Joe Klein: “It seems clear the President has won this round. An optimistic general will trump a skeptical politician anytime.”

* Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard: “For Democrats, Petraeus Week was a wrenching ordeal. . . . The New York Times ad by MoveOn.org trashing Petraeus as a liar backfired badly. . . . The prospect of a return engagement by Petraeus can only fill Democrats with a feeling of dread.”

* Fox News favorite Susan Estrich: “The Democrats, especially the Democrats running for president, have a problem, and his name is Petraeus.”

Given all of this, I guess we should see quite a shift in public opinion, right? After all, the pundits were convinced that Bush, Petraeus, and MoveOn had shifted the landscape considerably.

Except, Americans apparently didn’t see it that way.

Most Americans continue to want troops to start coming home from Iraq, and most say the plan President Bush announced last week for troop reductions doesn’t go far enough, according to a CBS News poll released Monday.

While the president spoke of a long-term commitment to Iraq in his nationally televised address, a time frame longer than two years is not acceptable to most Americans. […]

Sixty-eight percent of Americans say that U.S. troop levels in Iraq should either be reduced or that all troops should be removed – similar numbers to those before Mr. Bush’s speech.

What’s more, despite non-stop praise for Petraeus, Americans watching last week’s developments weren’t persuaded at all. Indeed, the public seems to have rejected all of the administration’s rhetoric.

Only about one in three (31 percent) said the surge has made things in Iraq better, while more than half (51 percent) say it’s had no impact. Eleven percent say it’s made things worse.

Overall, Americans remain pessimistic about the war. Just 34 percent think things are going well for the U.S. in Iraq, while 63 percent say things are going badly – about the same as before the president’s speech.

More than half of Americans (55 percent) believe that success in Iraq is unlikely, and nearly two-thirds (65 percent) think Mr. Bush’s assessments of the situation there are too rosy.

So much for the week that would change everything — and the chattering class’ ability to assess public opinion.

My God, has the public finally grown so weary of being taken for complete suckers that they’re just not falling for the empty cheerleading like they were before? How refreshing.

  • I say the policy wonks who don’t see the wisdom of redeployment are the same ones who now realize they have far too much blood on their hands, and don’t know just how to wash it off. -Kevo

  • When the Media Establishment pulls its collective Big Head out of its Big Butt, then it will see how most Americans’ view Iraq: “Get the hell out of there!”

  • “— and the chattering class’ ability to assess public opinion.”
    While they claim to assess it, they actually try to sway it. But they have gone to the well far too often. Except for Fox viewers (love those tits & lies!), much of the public won’t swallow the spin anymore.

    As I’ve said before, given the diversity of opinion when there’s a discussion anywhere (in the real world), the homogeneity of opinion in the MSM is truely suspect. Actually it is unbelievable, unless the possibility that a consensus is reached somewhere, and very little other opinion is expressed.

    Perhaps they will come around to the concept that there are thousands of free lance fact checkers out here in the tubes. By continuing to try to sell falsehoods, they are killing their media.

  • Those are interesting numbers at CBS, showing a fairly steady decline in support for the war. David Folkenflik did an interesting take on the MoveOn ads this morning. Having read both George Lakoff and Drew Westen on words and how we’ve failed to use them well, I was fascinated enough by the apparent political intention of the “betrayal” ads to transcribe Folkenflik’s interview with Pariser, Lakoff, and the dreadful Ari Fleisher. It’s posted at my place. Maybe I’m the only one (not having TV means I don’t actually hear the ads!) to miss the full impact of the betrayal theme and where it’s meant to take us! Probably everyone else caught on to what Lakoff and Pariser had in mind. If it works, great. About time.

    Meanwhile, Petraeus is at 10 Downing St. this morning, spreading all those ribbons and scrambled eggs on Gordon Brown, pressuring the Brits to stay in. Where the eggs are ending up, of course, is on Petraeus face.

  • ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Regarding “the public”:

    You’d have to be dumber than a Bush fart not to see the obvious:

    The Iraq war is for losers…
    It’s dead dumb obvious.

  • Americans are getting it. Even before Petraeus set foot on Capitol Hill, everyone could see the PR machine winding up. Whether anyone thought MoveOn’s ad was in good taste on not, it was obvious there was a very strong core of truth to the ad’s intent — Petraeus was acting like a politician and not a general.

    Bush himself got everything off on the wrong foot with his 6-hour trip to an isolated base in Iraq. Nothing could have more clearly demonstrated the accuracy of Dem statements that things aren’t going well there than a president hiding behind a 13-mile long perimeter in the middle of nowhere. Whether its Bush’s tail-between-his-legs visit or US politicians visiting Iraq with 80 lbs of body armor on, Republican photo ops in Iraq are unintentionally telling US citizens ever so accurately how screwed up this whole mess is and how more troops aren’t going to do a damn thing to fix it.

  • When the tech stocks nose dived in 2000/2001.
    MSM: “It’s okay, it’s only a flesh wound.”

    Just before ENRON went belly up.
    MSM: “It’s got good fundamentals. It’s a good investment!”

    Iraq
    MSM: “Cakewalk! We will be greeted as LIBERATORS! Ain’t war fun? Occupation will be easy!”

    House Market Mashup
    MSM: “No problems. Housing starts are going great. Just a flesh wound. Subprime mortgages are only a SMALL portion of the market…”

    Since the 1980s, the MSM has always played the Pollyana cheerleader of good times. After all, they did hire a lot of folks who were once cheerleaders like Katie Couric.

    Too insulated, too idolized, too medicated by fame, money and ego to actually see things as they are.

  • The media establishment is playing the Inside the Beltway game, where nothing happening can be construed a win. Sure a huge swath of the American public wants the troops to start coming home, but because Bush doesn’t care about the American public and won’t change policy even a hair and because Congress can’t and won’t do more to force the issue things like the Petraeus testimony don’t matter if they don’t move anyone. If nothing moves it is a victory of the status quo and whomever is pushing that.

  • Republicans kept screaming for Americans to wake up to the very real terrorist threat. Well, America is wide awake and extremely vigilant toward all enemies foreign and “domestic”. We are paying attention now and see through the snow jobs being thrown at us. Iraq has made us aware that our leaders will lie and mislead us. We thought we made it clear with the ‘06 elections and hopefully congress will see we are not so easily mis lead any longer. The exercise of power is not governing and Americans are tired of being threatened by fear of terrorism.
    Americans don’t see it that way anymore is an accurate statement. We saw Colin Powell lie…he was a great General…We saw Petraeus going out of his way with an Iraq PR campaign that was less than honest and extremely political and was being contradicted by other US reports being leaked before the WH could change them. “Before the WH could change them”…is the key phrase on why Americans remain vigilant. We were not impressed by the PR spin…Neither are we buying into this attack Iran rhetoric, which Bush feels compelled to do despite most of America being against it.

    We aren’t buying it anymore and expect congress to end it NOW…not years down the road…because we DO support our troops and want to protect them by getting them out of harm’s way.

  • Juan Cole mentions that the UIA, the Shiite fundamentalist bloc that currently controls the Iraqi parliament, wants the Sadr Movement to reconsider its withdrawal from the UIA.

    A quote from Cole’s post:
    Al-Hayat says that the Sadr Movement is refining its statement of national principles, which most factions in the UIA signed off on 2 years ago. It will include a demand that US forces withdraw, or that a timetable be set for their withdrawal, with a commitment that no American bases will remain in the country.

    Events on the ground in Iraq may decide the date of America’s withdrawal despite Republican intransigence and Democratic powerlessness.

  • Joe Klein: “It seems clear the President has won this round. An optimistic general will trump a skeptical politician anytime.”

    That makes Klein sound a lot worse than the article really was. Digging through Klein’s piece, he seems more right than wrong. Joe does channel his earlier idiot self somewhat, when he says: “Petraeus may well be right” [that “we are back on the right track now.”]

    But that retarded statement is the minority in a series of good ideas, like asking why Barbera Boxer would fail to ask the simplest and most important question possible.

    Klein: The stage was set for Boxer to point out that the Petraeus effort to train the Iraqi army had failed and to ask, “So why should we believe your optimism now?“

    Good question. Klein goes on to say this:

    “The nature of military leadership is congenital optimism; officers are trained to complete the mission, to refuse to countenance the possibility of failure.”

    Yup. I would add that the recently retired military is remarkably worse at sucking up for some strange reason. I wonder why that is? Hmm.

    Joe goes on to restate what should be obvious but needs saying anyway:

    “George W. Bush’s credibility on Iraq is nonexistent”

    Indeed. And of course everyone knows that Petraeus is Bush’s sock puppet so do the math.

    He also lays this out well:

    …Petraeus gave sketchy, disingenuous answers expressing hope about the three-way Shi’ite gang war in the oil-rich port city of Basranot… The general was armed with the modern military’s deadliest weapon, the PowerPoint-presentation-serried ranks of bar charts marching toward victory, which provided camouflage for the gaping holes and contradictions in the Petraeus-Crocker story…

    All in all I’d give Joe an A- on this article. It’s worth a read, and the title “Hiding Behind the General” spells out his position pretty well.

    http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1661686,00.html

  • The right-wing has spent so many years fostering mistrust in the “liberal” media, that the effectiveness of their strategy has bit ’em in the butt. When they and their corporate cronies (who now own and control that media) attempt to sway the “public,” their efforts are disregarded. How very amusing.

  • I’m real sick of the Right spotlighting the stupid Move On ad.

    Why doesn’t any one ask REPUBLICANS politicians to disown any number of ads blasting Dems? The Swift Boat campaign? The stupid new ad campaign saying we must stay in Iraq?

  • You may also want to note that more people watched the Democratic response to Bush’s speech than actually watched Bush’s speech (at least on the cable networks), proving even more that that American public is no longer buying what Bush Co. is selling.

    (Note: You very well may have covered this already and I missed it. Sorry if you have.)

  • This sounds a bit like what I’m told happened to the Catholic church in Ireland and Italy.

    The church was once the dominant, all-encompassing, must-not-be-trifled-with institution in those countries.

    Through hundreds of years of tough times, occupation, and oppression, Irishness was completely tied up in Catholicness. Divorce was illegal until very recently. In Italy, Catholicness had been an essential part of Italianness for nearly 2000 years!

    But the countries modernized, joined the EEC and EU, and things changed. People were getting more with a secular lifestyle, but the church still maintained its traditional position of respect and authority. And then..

    The priest-sodomy scandals hit. It was… a betrayal. Of trust. And people lost respect. And started leaving the church in droves.

    I’m told that nowadays the church holds very little sway in those countries. I’m told that Italy is one of the most secular countries in Europe, and has the lowest birthrate in all of Europe (The horror! People using birth control!). Ireland too, very secular now.

    I think what’s happening here is that the Repugs have been able to wave the flag and soldiers covered in medals and ribbons at us, and we all just have been forced to go along. This residual knee-jerk reaction continued long after we lost our faith in government during Watergate. Now, after 7 years of likes of Rove, Brownie, Gonzales/Asscroft, Petraeus, and similar characters, it’s just not working anymore.

    Put a person in front of us who is honest, straightforward, respects the Constitution, and is willing to serve the civilian public of the United States and its peaceful interests, and we will respect them, regardless of whether he or she is rich or poor, wearing a uniform or not, representing some mass-media outlet or blogging from home, holding a high office or not, etc.

  • What changed was that the republican desire to remain in Iraq for decades need no longer be whispered, but was said aloud. It seemed to be met with a quiet acceptance.

  • Re: beep52 @ #18

    Outstanding. You’re right. I looked at the blog of Matthew “White Man’s” Burden (aka “Blackjive”) yesterday and noticed a lot of deference to the “Long War” in comments –their words.

  • One of the Sunday talk show “pundits (?),” I can’t remember who and where – it hardly matters since most of these so-called experts and numb nuts anyway and most of those Sunday talk shows spew mostly drivel, said that Americans are through with the war and have gone shopping.

    The implication being that the reason the poll numbers are so low for the Bush administration’s war in Iraq is because the people are no longer paying attention. I suppose the further implication would be that if the people were paying attention they would have a different view on things.

    How insulting! The reason the polls indicate such disdain for the Bush war is because they are paying attention and the bs is no longer being believed. People can see the truth plainly in front of them, and no matter who it is that’s trying to spin reality to their advantage – it is no longer working.

    The pro-war group hasn’t quite caught up to this yet, or maybe they just don’t care and understand that nobody in the immediate will stop them from doing whatever it is they want to do.

    The real ongoing tragedy is that the anti-war politicians (Democrats) haven’t grasped yet that they are completely out of step with and far behind the public who keep imploring them to DO SOMETHING to end this fiasco!

    MoveOn ventures out, Kucinich ventures out McKinney (sp?) steps out, Feingold moves to end the war, and the stupid myopic Democrats criticize and attack them all.

    No one wants to be responsible, no one wants to take the perceived risk, and everyone points fingers of blame in all directions. Everyone keeps talking and posturing and paying more attention to politics than principle and soldiers and civilians keep killing each other, things keep getting worse, and now the Bush administration is talking and manipulating about Iran the way they did prior to the run up to the invasion of Iraq.

    If a true leader with courage, vision, and understanding of what is going on would step forward I think he or she would see just how many Americans are just waiting for such an individual.

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