The Bush White House can’t afford to let Democrats succeed in the race to replace retiring Sen. Bob Graham. It’s not just because it’s another Senate seat in a closely-divided Senate; by that measure, every race is of equal importance.
The problem for Bush is Florida’s significance as part of his 2004 election strategy. If Dems are mobilized for the Senate race and rallying behind a single candidate, it makes Bush’s efforts to win the state’s 27 electoral votes all the more difficult.
As I’ve been writing about for a couple of weeks, the GOP field is pretty weak in the Sunshine State, while the Dem field features a diverse field of very strong candidates, including a popular state Education Secretary, two current members of Congress, and the mayor of Miami-Dade.
Katherine Harris, infamous for her role in the 2000 recount debacle, has announced that she’s “seriously” considering a run for the Senate now that Graham has said he will not seek re-election, but the White House knows that few GOP figures in Florida will be able to rally the Democrats better than Harris.
Bush’s top choice for the campaign has been Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, who Karl Rove has begged to run for nearly a year. Martinez announced in June that he wasn’t interested and rumor had it he was focused more on running for governor in Florida in 2006.
But three things have changed since June. First, Graham, a hero in the Sunshine State, has announced his retirement (which seemed unlikely six months ago). Second, no top-tier Republicans have stepped up to run for Graham’s Senate seat. Third, the White House is getting desperate.
Apparently, these three factors have led Martinez to consider changing his mind, and he’s now likely to announce a Senate run very shortly.
“I know he’s thinking seriously about the U.S. Senate,” said Jim Smith, Florida’s former attorney general and secretary of state who said he had spoken with Martinez yesterday. “I think he’s still going back and forth, but I know he likes being in public service.”
The AP is also reporting that Martinez has held multiple discussions with Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), who is actively recruiting candidates as chairman of the Senate GOP campaign committee.
If Martinez throws his hat in the ring, I think Harris will opt out and several current GOP candidates will withdraw.
And, in case you’re wondering why I talk about this race so much, I’m a Florida native (though I no longer live there) and I used to work for one of the Dem candidates. Plus, it’s shaping up to be one of the most interesting Senate races of the cycle.