In a painful waste of time, Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) is engaged in negotiations, which his staff calls “very delicate,” with some moderate Dems to sign on to his constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.
Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colo.) and other Republicans are courting several Democrats the GOP believes can be persuaded to support an amendment barring gay marriage.
These Democrats include Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.), Bill Nelson (Fla.), Robert Byrd (W.Va.), Mark Pryor (Ark.), Ken Salazar (Colo.) and Mary Landrieu (La.), Capitol Hill sources indicated.
Three of those Democrats — Ben Nelson, Bill Nelson and Byrd — are up for reelection in 2006. All of their states supported President Bush in 2004…. Other Democrats mentioned as possible co-sponsors are Sens. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Evan Bayh of Indiana.
OK, let’s think about this for a minute. To pass the chamber, Allard needs 67 votes. Last year, the measure came up for a cloture vote about three months before a national election, but it didn’t even generate a simple majority. Supporters couldn’t even keep the Republican caucus together on this (six Republicans voted against it).
Basic arithmetic tells us the amendment is going to do no better in this Congress than it did in the last.
Allard is reaching out to six centrist Dems with an eye on three others. You don’t have to be a math wiz to do a head count and see that this isn’t going to work. First, it’s highly unlikely that Allard is going to convince all these Dems to enshrine anti-gay bigotry in the Constitution. Second, it’s equally unlikely that Allard will be able to keep the entire GOP caucus together on this.
But let’s give Allard the benefit of the doubt. Let’s say he gets all 55 Republicans to vote for the amendment plus gets every centrist Dem with whom he’s “negotiating” to back this amendment. Ultimately, even if this unlikely scenario falls into place, he’s still short of the 67 votes needed for a constitutional amendment.
This is exactly why Bush indicated he’s given up on passing the so-called “Federal Marriage Amendment” this Congress. The votes just aren’t there. And if Bush, despite his limitations, can do the math on this, there’s no reason for Allard can’t save everyone the trouble and do the same.