No matter how flawed the process in Iowa, one side benefit of the caucuses is some wheat-chaff separation. Candidates who fail to meet their own (and the political establishment’s) expectations invariably start to feel pressure to withdraw. More often than not, they do, resulting in a trimmed-down field.
The Republican roster of candidates has already been pared down in advance of the caucuses (Gilmore, Brownback, and Tancredo all dropped out), but by the weekend, the field looks like it’ll get a little thinner still.
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.
Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.
This reality — combined with a fundraising drought — left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.
Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire.
“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”
No shame in that. This comes, of course, just a few days after Thompson conceded to a group of voters that he’s “not particularly interested in running for president.” Indeed, on Jan. 1, when most of the competitive candidates were working furiously to rally support, Thompson hosted just one event. One.
The question then becomes, what happens next?
According to the Thompson campaign, officials believe “there is ‘a strong likelihood’ that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon — most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates.”
Even a distant third might be too much to ask. Polls show Thompson fading badly in Iowa, running fourth, and possibly dropping to fifth. He hasn’t consistently topped 15% in Iowa polls since September.
Of course, one wonders if this might be some kind of rallying cry to Thompson backers to coincide with the caucuses — Vote for Fred or he’ll quit! — but I suspect it will have the opposite effect. Voters will hear that Thompson is on his way out, which will dampen enthusiasm for his campaign.
If Thompson throws his support to McCain, that could make a fair amount of difference. Thompson has a small core of supporters, and in a competitive contest, especially in South Carolina, if Fred Heads shift to McCain, it could give the senator a sizable edge.
We’ll know soon enough. Stay tuned.
Update: Thompson has denied the accuracy of the report, saying they are “absolutely made up out of whole cloth.” He added that he suspects a rival GOP campaign of starting the rumor to undermine his campaign.