Thursday’s political round-up

January 26, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In New Jersey, competing polls are coming to different results when looking ahead to November’s Senate election. The latest Rasmussen poll shows State Senator Tom Kean Jr. (R) leading newly appointed Sen. Bob Menendez (D), 42% to 35%. Quinnipiac, however, shows Menendez ahead, 38% to 36%.

* Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) continues to look fairly strong in advance of her re-election fight this year, enjoying double-digit leads over her most likely GOP rivals. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Sebelius leads Robin Jennison (R) 46% to 32%, and Jim Barnett (R) 46% to 35%. Sebelius’ overall approval rating is 64% statewide.

* After four top-tier recruits turned down the opportunity, Republicans finally have a Senate candidate in West Virginia. Multimillionaire businessman John Raese announced yesterday he will challenge Sen. Robert Byrd (D) this year. This will be Raese’s third attempt at statewide office, following unsuccessful campaigns against Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984 and then Gov.-Arch Moore in a 1988 GOP primary. Raese owns several media outlets, including The Dominion Post of Morgantown, the West Virginia Radio Corp., which owns 15 radio stations, and the MetroNews radio network serving 56 stations.

* Just when it looked like Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar has smooth sailing on route to the Dem nomination in Minnesota’s Senate race, Mike Ciresi may throw his hat into the ring. Ciresi, who ran in 2000, said he will announce whether he’s running next week. The announcement would come on the heels of child safety advocate Patty Wetterling’s withdrawal.

* Rep. Ted Strickland (D), the frontrunner for the Dem nomination in Ohio’s gubernatorial race, tapped former Ohio Attorney General Lee Fisher as his running mate yesterday. The Cleveland Plain Dealer said, “Fisher brings to the ticket geographic balance, a sophisticated understanding of state government and a proven ability to raise money.”

* And speaking of Ohio, embattled Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio) will officially kick-off his re-election campaign this afternoon in Dover, Ohio. Ney, who will likely be under indictment soon, told The Hill last week that he will run for his seat whether he’s facing criminal charges or not.

I hope someone sneaks in to Ney’s kickoff event and replaces the music with “Jailhouse Rock”.

  • Regarding the competing New Jersey polls, they aren’t really conflicting based on the way polling margin of error works. If the margin of error is 3% (it might even be 4 or 5), the Rasmussen poll has Keane at between 45% and 39%, while the Quinnipiac poll has him between 39% and 33%. For Menendez, Rasmussen has him between 38% and 32% and Quinnipiac between 41% and 35%. So if both polls are with-in a 3% margin of error, that would put Keane at 39% and Menendez at between 35% and 38%.
    .
    At this point, we can be certain that Keane is ahead…
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    or Menendez is ahead, or it’s a dead heat.
    .
    After all, the margin of error is only to a 95% certainty, meaning that 1 out of 20 polls is completely wrong. One or both of these polls could be way off. Add to this any of a hundred things that can skew the results of any poll (e.g., timing, question order and wording). Polls are always an approximation, especially this early when a quarter of the sample is still undecided.

  • Here’s a campaign point for the Menendez people —

    Tom Kean Jr. has a politically-famous father, and so does George W. Bush. Remind the voters that you can never tell how “far from the tree the apple will fall.” The elder Bush is a lot more popular–because he was more mainstream in philosophy and restrained in his governing–than his son George W.

    Point number 2: A Republican senator will readily “rubber-stamp” President Bush’s judicial nominations.

  • Goddamn Mike Ciresi. One of my closest friends works for Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi, and between his public utterances and what I hear privately, I’ve got no use for him. Go away, Mike, and spend your money and have a good time doing it.

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