Thursday’s political round-up

August 3, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Two new Rasmussen polls offer good news for Dems in Pennsylvania. According to the latest numbers, Gov. [tag]Ed Rendell[/tag] (D) has sustained a double-digit lead for the third month in a row, and now leads retired football player [tag]Lynn Swann[/tag] (R) 50% to 40%. State Treasurer [tag]Bob Casey[/tag] (D), meanwhile, continues to lead incumbent Sen. [tag]Rick Santorum[/tag] (R), this time by a 50% to 39% margin. Looking back at previous Rasmussen polls on this race, the results are nearly identical going back to late March.

* In Ohio’s gubernatorial race, Rep. [tag]Ted Strickland[/tag] (D) released federal income tax forms for him and his family yesterday, covering the last five years. Ohio Secretary of State [tag]Ken Blackwell[/tag] (R), however, declined to do the same, becoming the first Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate in at least 35 years to keep his income tax records secret. Asked to explain Blackwell’s decision, a campaign spokesperson said there was “no particular reason” for keeping the records private, “other than it’s not required.”

* Don’t look now, but Nevada’s Senate race may be competitive after all. [tag]Jack Carter[/tag] (D) released still-private Rasmussen poll results yesterday, showing Carter trailing incumbent Sen. [tag]John Ensign[/tag] (R) by just seven points, 46% to 39%. A Rasmussen poll taken earlier this year showed Ensign leading by 19 points.

* In the competitive open gubernatorial campaign in Iowa, Secretary of State [tag]Chet Culver[/tag] (D) is still leading Rep. [tag]Jim Nussle[/tag] (R), but not by much. A new Rasmussen poll shows Culver up, 41% to 38%. In May, Culver led, 46% to 40%.

* Though Oregon Gov. [tag]Ted Kulongoski[/tag] (D) has long been considered one of the more vulnerable incumbents this year, two new polls show him leading his GOP rival by double digits. A new Rasmussen poll shows Kulongoski ahead of [tag]Ron Saxton[/tag] (R), 45% to 35%. A Grove Insight poll conducted for the Oregon AFL-CIO shows an even larger lead, 42% to 25%. Kulongoski seems to be rebounding at the ideal time: Rasmussen shows solid improvements in his personal and job approval ratings.

* And in Michigan, the back-and-forth between Gov. [tag]Jennifer Granholm[/tag] (D) and Amway heir [tag]Dick DeVos[/tag] (R) has swung back in the Republican’s direction, at least according to the latest Rasmussen poll, which shows DeVos ahead, 48% to 42%.

If the Ohio Democrats can’t pound Blackwell on this, and connect it to a general theme that he’s dishonest and self-interested above all else, they really don’t deserve to win.

Please, Buckeyes, don’t screw this up.

  • I have a warning for all Democrats: If the Diebold electronic voting machines can’t be trusted, neither can the opinion polls; the only thing that matters is the turnout of our voters. (It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings.)

  • slip kid’s right.

    Any dem who takes the good polls as a sign we can kick back and relax is a fool. We need to bury them in November.

    With the power of subpoena as the prize for the winners, the masterminds of the current administration are going to pull out every filthy trick they can think of in order to keep their power. The phrase “trapped rats” comes to mind.

  • Its tempting to pay for the access to the Rasmussen cross-tabs on the Iowa poll (Culver-Nussle) just to try and figure out this surprising internal: (1) a strong plurality of Iowa voters believe the Bible is “literally true,” and (2) a majority are “pro-choice.” Now, I would have expected Biblical literalalism and a pro-life stance to rise or fall in tandem, so this disconnect between an apparent convervative bent on one question and liberal bent on another is somewhat fascinating — and presumably makes it a little hard for the candidates’ targeting and messaging operations.

  • Fortunately for Kulongoski, Saxton was the right-winger of the GOP primary, so he is going to be a lot harder to beat than the more moderate but perennial loser Kevin Mannix (who Kulongoski beat just barely in 2002.)

  • ***We need to bury them in November.***
    —Diane

    I’ve a really nice cornfield out behind the house. So—how big a hole do we need—and should I start digging now?

    And, of course “Slackwell” doesn’t want to release his tax records to the public. After all, which one would he release? There’s the one to IRS (says one thing), the one to Ohio (says something completely different), then there’s all those papers in a shoebox related to Abramoff, the coffee-can with cribnotes to Ney, …oh, and I mustn’t forget the reams of stuff connected to Diebold (or the cash-stuffed mattresses). Whichever cooked return he releases, someone’s going to catch on right quick….

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