Thursday’s political round-up

September 21, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In Pennsylvania, Sen. [tag]Rick Santorum[/tag] (R) closed the gap recently against [tag]Bob Casey[/tag] (D), but he’s still not close to catching up to his challenger. A new Keystone Poll shows Casey leading, 45% to 38%. Last month’s poll showed the race at almost the exact same point. Green Party nominee and GOP ally [tag]Carl Romanelli[/tag] trails badly with 5%.

* Speaking of Pennsylvania, the state’s gubernatorial race appears to be far less competitive than the Senate race. The same poll showed incumbent Gov. [tag]Ed Rendell[/tag] (D) leading retired football player [tag]Lynn Swann[/tag] (R), 52% to 34%. The margin is almost identical to last month’s Keystone poll.

* In nearby New Jersey, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows state Sen. [tag]Tom Kean[/tag], Jr., (R) continuing to hold a narrow lead over Sen. [tag]Bob Menendez[/tag] (D), 48% to 45%. Both candidates look strong with their respective party bases, and independents break a little towards the challenger, 46% to 44%.

* In Hawaii’s Democratic Senate primary, Sen. [tag]Daniel Akaka[/tag] (D) appears poised to fend off challenger Rep. [tag]Ed Case[/tag] (D). The latest poll from the Honolulu Advertiser shows the incumbent ahead, 51% to 38%.

* [tag]Bob Corker[/tag], Tennessee’s Republican candidate for Senate, still hasn’t earned any cred with the anti-abortion movement. In 1994, he said he’s personally pro-life but doesn’t want to see the government get involved in the issue. He’s since repudiated his earlier comments, but Tennessee Right to Life still hasn’t forgiven him, and the group is talking openly about staying home in November.

In nearby New Jersey, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., (R) continuing to hold a narrow lead over Sen. Bob Menendez (D), 48% to 45%.

Is this still seen as a result of confusion between Kean Jr. and his dad? If so, when is Menendez going to start in on the JUNIOR advertising? How about a direct mail piece to every voter in PA with JUNIOR as the most prominent message?

  • Menendez should run a commercial with the Bush’s reminding the voters about the most recent JR that was elected to office.

  • By the way the New York Times Poll this morning had Bush’s approval rating at 37%. Will this get 1/2 as much airtime as the Gallop 44%?

  • From what I’m picking up in media reports, I don’t think Kean supporters care whether he is Jr. or Sr. Apparently they did not realize that the former governor’s name included Sr. and don’t care now. When confronted with that fact, I get the sense that supporters and undecideds want to know why they should set aside the goodwill that Sr.’s name engenders. Goodwill is a positive feeling that is much in short supply at this time in this country. And I am not aware of any significant negative baggage that Jr. carries. I’m afraid that the best that Menendez and his campaign will be able to do is to educate voters of the generational difference, persuade them to judge both candidates based on current situations (get their heads out of a more pleasant past by acknowledging and validating it but remind them of where we are now), and make the case that Menendez is the BETTER candidate given current conditions.

    From the NPR report I heard a few days ago, Kean is doing a masterful job of spinning the message that he will be an independent voice for New Jersey. He almost sounds as if he is running against the Bush administration and Republicant establishment. What is not getting said is that his first votes will be for Republicant leadership. Given the current nature of Republicant leadership, it’s all downhill from there. Even if Kean is truly independent in nature, his “independent voice for New Jersey” will a voice lost in the wilderness of rightwing oppression. (Specter and Chafee instantly come to mind.)

    I’m hoping that the Menendez campaign has someone skilled enough to turn Kean’s messages around to Menendez’s advantage, so that Mendendez can make the case successfully that he is the best choice.

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