It’s not generating national attention, but there are a few interesting congressional races today that will help set the stage for the rest of the year.
The biggest race is in South Dakota. A special election will decide who holds the state’s lone House seat after former Rep. Bill Janklow (R) had to resign after a vehicular manslaughter conviction late last year.
Stephanie Herseth, a Democrat who lost in a competitive race to Janklow in 2002, is the odds-on favorite today, facing former state senator Larry Diedrich (R). Polls show Herseth, who’s enjoyed significant national support, in the lead. In fact, Diedrich has all-but admitted that he’s going to lose.
Republican congressional hopeful Larry Diedrich is effectively conceding defeat in today’s South Dakota special House election before the polling booths even open.
The former state senator dramatically ratcheted down expectations during an interview with The Hill at his campaign headquarters, saying he would be happy to lose to Democrat Stephanie Herseth by only five percentage points.
Diedrich is hoping to set the stage of a competitive rematch in November, when Herseth will have to run for “re-election” after just five months in office. By lowering expectations, Diedrich is spinning his way towards avoiding a primary fight, but history has shown that these rematches almost always favor the incumbent.
Dems are very excited about this race and with good cause. Not only will this be another key pick-up of a GOP seat in a conservative state, but it bodes well for November. The last time a party won two House seats in special elections was the GOP in ’94 — on route to winning a House majority. Dems picked up one earlier this year — Ben Fletcher (D) won in Kentucky’s 6th District — and will probably do the same today. Let’s hope history repeats itself.
Another race that may be interesting, but far less important, is in Alabama today. The outcome is already clear, but I’m enjoying the campaign nevertheless.
Phillip Jauregui, Roy Moore’s lawyer, is trying to capitalize on his association with Alabama’s cult leader, by challenging Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) in a GOP primary. It’s a bizarre move that will likely destroy Jauregui’s fledgling political career.
The basis for Jauregui’s strange campaign is simple and misguided: Bachus isn’t right-wing enough. Jauregui has received from tacit support from Moore, which is the only reason to watch this race at all, but Bachus is one of Congress’ most conservative members, with a higher rating from the American Conservative Union that Moore’s favorite congressman, Bob Aderholt (93% to 88%).
I’ll let you know what happens, but if I were Jauregui, I wouldn’t be giving up on that unsuccessful legal career just yet.