The results of the Wisconsin presidential primary will certainly be big news tonight, but the real excitement will be in watching the results from a special congressional election in Kentucky.
In November, Ernie Fletcher (R) left his House seat to run successfully for governor, creating a vacancy. After a very short campaign cycle, a special election will be held today to fill Fletcher’s seat.
Considering the area, one might assume that one Republican would likely replace the other in this district. Instead, former Kentucky attorney general Ben Chandler, whom Fletcher beat in the governor’s race just four months ago, is favored to win today and give Dems a key election-year pickup of a GOP seat.
It’s even more exciting when one considers what Chandler’s up against. Not only is this a traditionally Republican area, but Chandler’s opponent — Republican state Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr — enjoys the enthusiastic backing of the White House and congressional leaders in Washington, a fact Kerr reminds audiences of constantly. Indeed, Kerr is the handpicked candidate of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the state’s most powerful lawmaker.
And yet, Kerr is still trailing.
In fact, House Speaker Dennis Hastert effectively tried to bribe voters in the district, insisting that he would push through a lucrative federal tobacco buyout to benefit Kentucky farmers — but only if they voted for Kerr in the special election.
If Chandler overcomes these obstacles and pulls this off — polls generally show him with a high single-digit lead — it will be the first time since 1991 that the Dems have won a Republican-held seat in a special election. Better yet, the DCCC is noting that a Chandler win may be a sign of things to come. In 1994, Republicans took away a Democratic seat in a Kentucky special election, and in the ensuing November elections, the entire House went to the GOP. Maybe history will repeat itself?
Many political observers are making this campaign a bellweather race for the nation, much to the GOP’s consternation. With Kerr doing everything possible to tie her campaign to the Bush White House, a Kerr defeat in a conservative GOP-leaning district will be seen as a defeat for Bush. As Roll Call’s Stu Rothenberg said last week, “[W]orse than the loss of a single House seat, a Republican defeat would suggest some problems for President Bush and his party.”
That’s exactly the emphasis from the press that Dems need to build some confidence and a sense of momentum in the coming months.
The Chandler-Kerr race is also of particular importance to the blog community. With a limited schedule and heavy spending from the national GOP, Chandler turned to some of the most popular liberal blogs for support, buying weeks worth of ads on Talking Points Memo, Kos, Atrios, Calpundit, Pandagon, and others.
In fact, blog readers seem to have responded in kind, donating to Chandler and boosting his campaign. Kos noted this morning, for example, that Chandler was able to secure last-minute TV advertising while Kerr hasn’t, perhaps due to her fundraising difficulties. “If so,” Kos reported, “the Chandler donations from readers of Kos, Atrios and other blogs may have made the difference.”
Chandler may be the first member of Congress ever elected, in large part, because of the blog community. In the coming months, I’d expect to see more and more candidates appealing directly to blog writers and readers for support. In fact, strolling over to Kos and Calpundit right now, you can find seven different congressional candidates with prominent ads.
Not bad for a still-new medium that most Americans don’t even know exists.