Tuesday’s campaign round-up

July 15, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* The Obama campaign unveiled its first new TV ad in a while, called, “America’s Leadership.” The spot focuses on Obama’s bipartisan work on counter-proliferation, with Obama explaining, “The single most important national security threat that we face is nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.” The commercial will run in 18 states, including 14 “red” states.

* A new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading John McCain nationally by nine, 50% to 41%.

* Fortunately, wrestler-turned-politician Jesse Ventura told Larry King last night, “I’m not going to run at this moment” for the U.S. Senate. What about the “at this moment” qualifier? Ventura would have to change his mind very quickly: the federal filing deadline is today.

* Obama spoke to the NAACP yesterday, once again arguing that “African Americans needed to take more responsibility for their lives and families, a theme that had angered one of the icons of the civil rights movement.” The message seemed to resonate with, rather than alienate, the audience.

* McCain surrogate/advisor Carly Fiorina told NBC that McCain is committed to “fully” funding No Child Left Behind. In reality, McCain has already voted against fully funding the education policy.

* Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) is generating some VP buzz, but he’s not pushing it. “There are people that are spending a lot of time, one, looking for candidates, and … trying to promote themselves as candidates,” Reed said. “And I’m in neither category.”

* Is John McCain campaigning in Arizona?

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Michigan by eight, 47% to 39%.

* Public Policy Polling (D) shows Obama leading McCain in Colorado by four, 47% to 43%.

* I never would have imagined South Dakota being in any way competitive, but Rasmussen shows McCain’s lead in South Dakota down to just four points, 47% to 43%.

* Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama in Louisiana by 19, 56% to 37%.

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Iowa by 10, 48% to 38%.

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Minnesota by 10, 52% to 34%.

* Speaking of Michigan, Obama has quite a ground operation in the state. Put it this way, the Kerry campaign took Michigan seriously in ’04, and Obama’s operation is already twice as big.

* Obama’s fundraising in Orange County, Calif., is surprisingly strong.

* Who’s leading the Senate race in Minnesota? It depends on which pollster you listen to.

* Missouri’s gubernatorial race is looking awfully good for state attorney general Jay Nixon.

Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama in Louisiana by 19, 56% to 37%

This I just don’t get. After Katrina one would think the people of Lousiana would figure out Republican’s don’t care a whit about what happens to them.

  • Someone please ask McCain if he approves of his buddy Bush’s latest joke…

    The American leader, who has been condemned throughout his presidency for failing to tackle climate change, ended a private meeting with the words: “Goodbye from the world’s biggest polluter.”

    He then punched the air while grinning widely, as the rest of those present including Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy looked on in shock…

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/2277298/President-George-Bush-'Goodbye-from-the-world's-biggest-polluter‘.html

  • ” Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Minnesota by 10, 52% to 34%”

    Wouldn’t that be 18?

  • Obama’s fundraising in Orange County, Calif., is surprisingly strong.

    Not in this household. And so I reject any suggestion that any of my neighbors might feel differently, and in honor of this post, I’m threatening to make a donation to Hillary. Soon. Real soon.

  • Technically, McCain is probably committed to “fully” funding No Child Left Behind just as soon as pigs learn to fly.

    Ask jeff, we’re just not being fair.

  • This I just don’t get. After Katrina one would think the people of Lousiana would figure out Republican’s don’t care a whit about what happens to them.

    The former people of Louisiana who understand that–that is, the overwhelmingly black residents of New Orleans–are now living in other states while their city isn’t rebuilt.

    At least Mary Landrieu’s holding tight–not that that Bush Dog is worth much, but presumably she’d be better than Kennedy. Maybe not, though…wasn’t he a Dem until he wanted to run for the Senate?

  • I hate to say it, but McCain’s lead in Louisiana probably has more to do with race than anything else. Louisiana isn’t as progressive as Mississippi. It’s also an oil state.
    .

    Now McCain has flip-flopped on “No Child Left Behind.” Eventually even the corporate media won’t be able to ignore the mountain of contradictions spoken by the Pander Bear. (That nickname came from the late Paul Tsongas, speaking of another candidate.)
    .

    I read an interesting article yesterday at Salon about how most polls overlook people without landline telephones. The demographic for cell-only voters:

    …under 40 years of age (oops, that one favors Obama); disproportionately renters rather than homeowners (Obama-leaning again); full of college students (sounds like a Starbucks Obama thing to me) — and, for good measure, includes a higher proportion of blacks and Hispanics than the national population does.”

    http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/07/14/cell_phone/

    It’s something to keep in mind as we stare in amazement at the closeness of the McPander / Obama race.

  • MSNBC follows Obama’s speech with military analyst who says Obama can’t leave Iraq if commanders say he can’t leave and we can’t buy off China (with a few billion dollars).

    MSNBC follows McCain’s speech with Senator Sam Brownback.

    Then: From Moscow: Russians prefer Obama!

  • Eventually even the corporate media won’t be able to ignore the mountain of contradictions spoken by the Pander Bear.

    Never underestimate the MSN’s ability to ignore evidence and blantant lying. I give the build up to the Iraq war as Exhibit A.

  • McCain surrogate/advisor Carly Fiorina told NBC that McCain is committed to “fully” funding No Child Left Behind. In reality, McCain has already voted against fully funding the education policy.

    On Steve Benen’s coverage of the daily Fiorina-McCain follies:
    One more stooge and it would make a teevee show…

  • Ventura would have to change his mind very quickly: the federal filing deadline is today.

    According to Political Wire: “If between now and five o’clock, maybe God comes and speaks to me like he did the president, and tells me I should run like he apparently told to president to invade Iraq … just understand God sent me to file.”

    Ventura added that God has never spoken to him before.

  • Steve, I take issue with your characterization of Obama’s speech last night. Although the the AP headlines scream that “Obama Calls For Parental Responsibility At NAACP,” the text of the speech shows that he did not focus so much on this issue, and focused more on society’s responsibilities. 27 paragraphs, 3 deal with “personal responsibility.”

    I personally am sick of being lectured by Obama on this issue, but I am most sick of the glee some people show at the idea that Obama is putting Black people in our places.

    Read the text of the speech here.

  • I have a feeling that many of the dems in Louisianna moved — a lot of them to neighboring Texas and Mississippi; both of which could be more competetive as a reasult.

    What I still don’t understand is how the national polls can be so close. I took all of the state weighted averages from Pollster.com (in a few cases there wasn’t enough data so I weighted what was there or took the latest if the others were too old) and then determined the percent difference and weighted those against the electoral votes of each state and came up with Obama ahead by 9% nationally. I don’t see how some national polls can put it at 2% unless it is just margin of error issues.

  • “As for Chezoklavakia, they don’t call me the nation builder for nothin’.”

    I wish that McCain was running. Atleast he is funny as shit.

  • * McCain surrogate/advisor Carly Fiorina told NBC that McCain is committed to “fully” funding No Child Left Behind. In reality, McCain has already voted against fully funding the education policy. — CB

    Did not! He voted for new funding standards. Once the pared and impaired standards are in place, NCBL *is* fully funded, in accordance with those. You just don’t know how to think like a Repub, Benen.

  • CB, could you just give us a map (or a link to one) with the changing Obama/McCain poll numbers? It’d be easier to take in than the current listing state by state. Thanks.

  • Wow, Carly Fiorina has lost it. Do any of his surrogates not contradict his voting record or his positions? Carly Fiorina, another child left with a big behind.

  • Maria @ 9 had my thought on L:A voting McCain.

    Ventura may not run in 2008… plenty of time for the other Senator to face a challenge, no?

    * Speaking of Michigan, Obama has quite a ground operation in the state. Put it this way, the Kerry campaign took Michigan seriously in ‘04, and Obama’s operation is already twice as big.

    Obama’s seriousness doesn’t have much to do with it. People are joining because Obama is a much better candidate. It feeds on itself. It’s not what Obama does, it’s what he’s already done. I suppose he can take credit for making the grass roots feel welcome. Kerry screwed that up royally, taking the top down approach that Dean’s troops despised.

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