Tuesday’s political round-up

September 5, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In Missouri’s closely-watched Senate race, a Research 2000 poll for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV shows incumbent Sen. [tag]James Talent[/tag] (R) closing the gap against state Auditor [tag]Clair McCaskill[/tag] (D) after a furious TV ad blitz. According to the poll, McCaskill now leads 47% to 46%. In June, a Research 2000 poll showed McCaskill with a six-point lead. In previous the six weeks, Talent outspent McCaskill by a ratio of 10:1.

* Over the weekend, Sen. [tag]Lincoln Chafee[/tag] (R-R.I.) said he will not follow Joe Lieberman’s example and run as an independent if he loses his GOP primary. Appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” Chafee said that option is “off the boards.” Even if Chafee wins the primary, he’s still in a tough spot — a new Rasmussen poll shows him trailing Sheldon Whitehouse (D), 44% to 42%.

* In Michigan’s gubernatorial race, a Selzer & Co. poll released on Sunday showed Gov. [tag]Jennifer Granholm[/tag] (D) leading Amway heir [tag]Dick DeVos[/tag] (R), 46% to 44%. A Selzer poll in July showed DeVos leading Granholm by five, 47% to 42%, which suggests the race is finally going in the right direction.

* In Iowa’s very competitive gubernatorial race, Iowa Secretary of State [tag]Chet Culver[/tag] (D) is still hanging on to a narrow lead over Rep. [tag]Jim Nussle[/tag] (R) in a new Rasmussen poll, 42% to 40%. Last month’s Rasmussen poll showed Culver ahead by a similar margin, 41% to 38%.

* Minnesota’s gubernatorial race is getting very interesting lately. A new Rasmussen poll shows state Attorney General [tag]Mike Hatch[/tag] (D) narrowing the gap against incumbent Gov. [tag]Tim Pawlenty[/tag] (R) down to six points, 45% to 39%. A month ago, Pawlenty led by double digits. A curveball to watch: independent Peter Hutchinson garnered 8% in the poll, which suggests he has enough support to tip the scales. A Gallup poll, meanwhile, shows Hatch actually taking a narrow lead over Pawlenty.

* And in Pennsylvania, the once-close gubernatorial race is getting less and less competitive all the time. A new Gallup poll shows Gov. [tag]Ed Rendell[/tag] (D) leading retired football player [tag]Lynn Swann[/tag] (R) by the biggest margin yet, 57% to 35%.

Re: Michigan – neither Granhom nor DeVos has done much on the airways yet – I’m not sure what they’re waiting for.

Granholm originally wanted to be an actress when she grew up, and comes across extremely well in front of the camera, whereas DeVos comes across kind of emotionless and dry.

In Michigan, you can’t discount the effect that the auto industry has here – beyond the Big 3, there are suppliers, parts factories, software companies, even restaurants and hotels which rely on the car companies to survive. You can be sure DeVos is watching Ford Motor Company closely – they’re in big trouble, and the friends and neighbors I have who work there are all worried for their jobs in finance and Ford Credit, the latter of which is in horrible shape, despite being the only profitable part of Ford in recent years. I have heard they’re planning on halving Ford Credit’s workforce, but I don’t know if that’s truth or rumor. GM is rebouding a bit for the time being, so they won’t be as much of a factor. If something awful happens at Ford before November, DeVos may be able to use it to his advantage. Granholm can only hope the Google and Toyota deals she’s recently landed will be enough of a boost.

  • I actually feel sorry for Lincoln Chafee. He proves with this statment what he has proved all his life: he’s a good, decent, honest man.

    Too bad there’s not a job description that uses those words in sequence in the Republican Party.

  • There appears to be an interesting pattern where R’s in close races dumped a lot of money early to stay competitive — in Missouri, Michigan and Washington to name three. There appears to be a concerted effort by Dems to resist the urge to fire back, ride out the storm, and spend their money after Labor Day. Presumably now McCaskill, Granholm, Cantwell and others will open the spigot and make their own large buys; I remain hopeful those efforts will put each of those races safely out of reach.

  • DeVos has spent over $12 million of his own money on ads, without anything to show for it. It gave him an initial bump in the polls but now that voters are getting a clear picture of DeVos, the billionaire Bush loving extremist, Granholm is back in the lead.

    And now he’s trying to distance himself from Bush, now after his family contributed hundreds of thousands to his presidential campaigns. I’m sorry Dick, you can’t pretend to be a Democrat in Michigan. We know what your real color is.

  • Chafee is like 99.999% of all incumbents: If he loses the primary, game over and he supports his party’s candidates.

    Joe is the 000.001% of politicians who tell’s his constituancy that he knows best and will continue running, no matter the damage he does to his FORMER party.

  • I got a chance to hear McCaskill speak at a Labor Day rally yesterday and I was impressed with what she had to say, which reinforced my favorable opinion based on the job she has done as state auditor. If Missourians don’t elect Claire I think that we’ll be missing an opportunity to have a dedicated public servant (as opposed to a corporate servant) in the Senate.

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