Tuesday’s political round-up

September 19, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Don’t look now, but Connecticut’s Senate race is starting to get very interesting again. Though polls showed Sen. [tag]Joe Lieberman[/tag] (I) leading [tag]Ned Lamont[/tag] (D) by double digits a few weeks ago, a new Rasmussen poll showed Lamont closing the gap and trailing the incumbent by just two, 45% to 43%.

* In Ohio, the gubernatorial race is looking less and less competitive. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rep. [tag]Ted Strickland[/tag] (D) with a “commanding” lead over Ohio Secretary of State [tag]Ken Blackwell[/tag] (R), 55% to 34%. “Rep. Strickland’s lead is solid and uniform. He is ahead among men and women and the critical independent voters. And his supporters are more likely to say they won’t change their mind than are Secretary of State Blackwell’s,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

* Speaking of Ohio, Dems will also be encouraged by the latest Rasmussen poll, which shows Rep. [tag]Sherrod Brown[/tag] (D) leading incumbent Sen. [tag]Mike DeWine[/tag] (R) by six points, 47% to 41%. It’s Brown’s biggest lead to date in Rasmussen polling.

* In Rhode Island, Sen. [tag]Linc Chafee[/tag] (R) does not appear to be getting a post-primary bump in the polls. The latest Rasmussen numbers show the incumbent trailing former state Attorney General [tag]Sheldon Whitehouse[/tag] (D), 51% to 43%. A month ago Rasmussen showed Whitehouse leading by just two.

* In Illinois, the latest Chicago Sun Times poll shows incumbent Gov. [tag]Rod Blagojevich[/tag] (D), considered a very vulnerable incumbent a few months ago, with a big lead going into the campaign’s homestretch. The poll shows Blagojevich leading state Treasurer [tag]Judy Baar Topinka[/tag] (R), 56% to 26%. Topinka suffers from her association with former Gov. George Ryan (R) who was recently sentenced to jail time stemming from a series of corruption charges.

* In Montana, [tag]Jon Tester[/tag] (D) has also pulled out to his biggest lead to date over incumbent Sen. [tag]Conrad Burns[/tag] (R), 52% to 43%, in the latest Rasmussen poll. In last month’s poll, the two were tied.

* And in Pennsylvania, Sen. [tag]Rick Santorum [/tag](R-Pa.) seems to be struggling a bit with the pressure of a tough re-election campaign. Over the weekend, a reporter from The Patriot-News, a newspaper in Harrisburg, approached Santorum to discuss his policy on Iran. Santorum not only refused to speak with the journalist, but lashed out at the news outlet. “I have to raise tens of millions of dollars because of the junk you feed the people of Pennsylvania,” he said. The newspaper reported that Santorum “used an expletive to describe the coverage and slammed down a newspaper.”

Somebody PLEASE videotape Santorum venting an expletive and put it up on YouTube. His base really doesn’t like that kind of thing.

Maybe ask him if he could comment on rumors that he’s gay. (I did hear that somewhere)

  • Wow Ricky is a little too excited. Poor guy has to raise money for re-election. Does this mean he supports campaign finance reform? Federal election financing?

    Maybe if he spent less time throwing birthday parties for the “unborn” and more time pandering be would not be so pinched financially. http://www.hannity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2689

  • “Maybe ask [Santorum] if he could comment on rumors that he’s gay. (I did hear that somewhere)” – Racerx

    That would be why he is so insistent on the definition of Marriage as only being between a man and a woman. Doesn’t want to be tempted 😉

    Oh JRS Jr.! Notice the trends? See Lamont mounting up in the polls? If we draw the line with even a slight downward curve, he’s going to pass Joe (it’s all about me) Lieberman pretty soon, don’t you think?

    Hmmm?

  • On the Ohio races: should be hard for the GOP to overcome leads like those. Not impossible, though; we’re talking about the home of Diebold now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t election victories.

  • Oh, I forgot the best part (or actually, it just occurred to me). Once it is clear that Lieberman is going to lose, all his Republican fair-weather friends are going to bolt off and actually vote for their party’s nominee (like they are supposed to) leaving poor Joe with 20% of the vote.

    Now, there’s a bold prediction!

  • “Not impossible, though; we’re talking about the home of Diebold now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t election victories.” – Ed Stephan

    It works better simply to have too few polling stations with too few machines in heavily African-American precincts. Worked in 2004.

  • I wonder if Linc Chafee is suffering from all the news coverage of his support from the RNC? It seems like being seen as the candidate the White House chose might be a disadvantage…

  • Lance. I agree.

    The soap opera is done and no matter what the polls say, I just do not see a bunch of republicans voting for an independent; not enough to matter.

    “His base really doesn’t like that kind of thing” – Racerx

    Ya, but they don’t like liberals even more. I doubt many people are going to care if Ricky tosses out a cuss word considering how much they like torture and all.

    It is going to be interesting to see what all these republicans do in November after the elections. There are going to be some great quotes. If (that’s a huge if) we do win back both houses, you can bet you bottom dollar that there will be a paper trail next election. And some crazy ass quotes coming from the losers.

  • I don’t want to rain on the parade, but the USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows Bush back at 44 percent and the generic ballot contest closer to even than it’s been in some time.

    Granted, it’s just one poll and could easily be an outlier, but at the least I hope our guys are thinking about this and trying to figure out how to seize the initiative–and have something better in mind than sending Pelosi out before the cameras with yet another utterly forgettable laundry list of proposals.

  • “[Santorum’s] base really doesn’t like that kind of thing” – Racerx

    “Ya, but they don’t like liberals even more.” – ScottW

    Ya, but Bob Casey is not a liberal. Make the “conservatives” focus on the real differences between the two (like the fact that Santorum actually lives in Virginia (shudder) ) and you might see the Democrat win 😉

  • Bush’s recent rise in the polls is due in large part to the fifth anniversary of 9/11. Check back with the polls in 3 or 4 weeks when the public has moved on and when Iraq civil war and war in Afghanistan have produced more and more dead.

  • slip kid no more has it right. From Rasmussen:

    Today, 40% of American adults approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job and 58% disapprove. That’s slightly below where the numbers were before the President’s 9/11 speech, and at the same level as the August monthly average

    they’ve been tracking his numbers daily (3 day rolling average) since Sept. 05. You may not agree with their methodology (I think it has serious flaws), but that’s alot of data collected essentially the same way. Check out the chart in the left hand column. Post 9/11 bounce is clear and its fleeting impact is also clear.

  • Lance my boy, Joe’s and Ned’s numbers have remained flat as a pancake with the last Ras poll taken 8/21, so Lamont hasn’t gone anywhere when you compare the polls on an apples-to-apples basis. Plus the Survey USA poll taken only 3-4 days earlier than the latest Ras poll shows Joe with a 13 point lead… Now, how come you don’t reference that poll? Hmm?? Furthermore, in the Ras polll the GOP candidate only gained one point between the two polls, so your prediction of moderates jumping to him isn’t coming through just quite yet.

    Just face the facts… when you average all the polls since the primary, Lieberman has maintained an average 6-7 point lead among all polls, despite all the Dem support Lamont has gotten right out of the gates.

    Lance I got a bold prediction myself: All those dems who originally supported Joe will also come and beg him for the forgiveness after his win in the general election in November.

    P.S. The Dems national efforts are already starting to hit some speed bumps according to USA Today:

    Amid falling gas prices and a two-week drive to highlight his administration’s efforts to fight terrorism, President Bush’s approval rating has risen to 44% in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. That’s his highest rating in a year.The poll also showed likely voters evenly divided between Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress, 48%-48%.

    Lance, finally answer this simple question: How the heck are the Dems having so much trouble gaining traction when the GOP has been such a disappointement on so many fronts these last few years… hmmm???

  • Hey JRS Jr ,

    How do you like your “crow” cooked and served? We want to be ready for when you come to dinner.

  • “Lance, finally answer this simple question: How the heck are the Dems having so much trouble gaining traction when the GOP has been such a disappointement on so many fronts these last few years… hmmm??? ” – JRS Jr.

    I suppose the would be because you all are not living in reality?

    I only follow the polling that CB reports. It’s nice to know that someone still thinks Joe deserves more opportunities to call other Americans traitors.

  • Ahh I get it now Lance, you are the recipient of a blog that only reports selective polls… Right from the school of Kerry in ’04’s election!!! Keep those blinders on!

    Just to help you become informed and from a blog that our own CB respects…

    From RealClear Politics:
    Average 08/10 – 09/14 – 48.3 41.0 4.8 Lieberman (I) +7.3
    Rasmussen 09/13 – 09/14 550 LV 45 43 5 Lieberman (I) +2.0
    SurveyUSA 09/09 – 09/11 572 LV 51 38 7 Lieberman (I) +13.0
    Zogby Interactive* 08/29 – 09/05 531 LV 46 42 3 Lieberman (I) +4.0
    Pub Op Str (R) 08/27 – 08/29 600 LV 51 35 4 Lieberman (I) +16.0
    Rasmussen 08/21 – 08/21 550 LV 45 43 6 Lieberman (I) +2.0
    American Res. Group 08/17 – 08/21 790 LV 44 42 3 Lieberman (I) +2.0
    Zogby Interactive* 08/15 – 08/21 533 LV 49 39 2 Lieberman (I) +10.0
    Quinnipiac 08/10 – 08/14 1083 LV 53 41 4 Lieberman (I) +12.0

  • Lance, finally answer this simple question: How the heck are the Dems having so much trouble gaining traction when the GOP has been such a disappointement on so many fronts these last few years… hmmm??? -JRS Jr

    The corporate owned media whores for the GOP? Nah, couldn’t be that simple…

    Anyway, we’ll see. Only one poll counts and that’s in November.

    Topinka suffers from her association with former Gov. George Ryan (R) who was recently sentenced to jail time stemming from a series of corruption charges. -CB

    Actually, Topinka suffers from being an insufferable fool who thinks gambling is the answer to the states troubled economy.

    Plus Rod hasn’t been indicted. So he’s got that going for him.

  • Seems to me that if we go back a few months Lamont is still heading in the right direction.

    We’ll see 😉

  • doubtful, your blaming of the media for the Dems troubles is laughable…

    I think dajafi is onto something when he says “but at the least I hope our guys are thinking about this and trying to figure out how to seize the initiative–and have something better in mind than sending Pelosi out before the cameras with yet another utterly forgettable laundry list of proposals.”

    dajafi confirms my point yesterday, Dem proposals have to be clearer and memorable than the GOP’s — not equal to in order to get voters to swing left… and that’s something the Dem rank and files has yet to pull togther. Without it, its going to be a tough go.

    Please, please stop blaming the messenger and blame your teams lack of a better message!

  • I don’t want to rain on the parade, but the USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows Bush back at 44 percent and the generic ballot contest closer to even than it’s been in some time.

    USA Today/Gallup poll consistently skews pro Bush and pro GOP.

  • Bold predictions, eh? Joe Lie gets whipped* on November 7, finds himself shunned by both Democrats and his “new friends” for the balance of his term, and then winds up being a political rarity—a former US Senator who can’t get a job on a major network, a major print publication, or K Street.

    *>>>Look to see Lamont-Lieberman-Schlesinger as the win-place-show, with a spread of 51/38/11. Ted’s going to hold his own; Republicans will begin to see Joe Lie for the angry old carrion-bird he’s become over the past few years, and they’ll start drifting back to Schlesinger.

    Ohio>>>It’ll be fun to sit back and watch what happens in Ohio, once Blackwell’s out of its government. One of the things to watch for is a re-evaluation on the use of Diebold voting machines, and the possibility of an investigation into Blackwell’s handling of the “arrangements” with Diebold (they go back a-ways). It’s also important to remember that he’s the same guy who has to certify the election—so he gets to “rub salt into his own wounds.” Strickland over Blackwell by 28 points—and Brown will widen his lead over D’Whine; final that one out at a 9-to-10-point spread.

    Sanitorium’s cash influx should start running out in a couple of weeks—and he’s pretty much blown it all on his attack-blitz strategy. It’s not washing well with folks in Pennsylvania: Sanitorium gets sent home by a 9-point margin, his K Street connections start getting their cojones squeezed by corruption investigations in February, and his fundie Reich associates start getting letters from the IRS concerning audits and tax-exempt status—something about pulpit-based “missionary fundraising” actually being “slush” for his campaign coffers.

    Bold enough for youze guys?

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