Tuesday’s political round-up

September 26, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Though several recent polls showed Sen. Rick Santorum (R) closing the gap against Bob Casey (D) in Pennsylvania, new data shows the gap getting bigger again. A new Quinnipiac poll showed Casey regaining his double-digit lead and is now up 54% to 40%. A month ago, Quinnipiac showed Casey ahead by only six. Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli garnered 4% support, though he has lost a court fight and will probably not appear on the ballot. (Thanks to Rege for the tip)

* In Nevada, a new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll shows the Senate race looking less and less competitive. Incumbent Sen. John Ensign (R) now leads challenger Jack Carter (D) by 23 points, 58% to 35%. Carter said he expected a dip in the polls due to a two-week hospital stay due to severe colitis that kept him off the campaign trail.

* Speaking of Nevada, in the state’s gubernatorial race, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) leading state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D), 45% to 36%. In July, Gibbons led 46% to 37%.

* A Democratic poll in Tennessee shows Rep. Harold Ford (D) keeping the momentum up against Bob Corker (R) in the state’s Senate race. Ford, according to the Benenson Strategies Group poll, now leads 45% to 39%.

* In Colorado, Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) has opened up an even bigger lead against Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) in a new Rasmussen poll, and is now ahead, 50% to 34%. The 16-point margin is Ritter’s biggest lead to date, and is a seven-point improvement on his lead from August.

* And Amy Klobuchar (D) continues to look very strong in Minnesota’s open Senate race, and according to the latest Pioneer Press poll, leads Rep. Mark Kennedy (R), 52% to 37%.

Given that the NJ senate race is so close and could be the only GOP pickup, I found the recent update from electoral-vote.com to be quite interesting:

In New Jersey, the race has tightened considerably. Rasmussen reports that state senator Tom Kean Jr.’s lead over incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) has shrunk to essentially zero, 41% to 40%.

If Menendez can hold his seat and we pick up the Ten and Missouri seats, the Senate may just be returned to the reality-based community.

  • Another odd event is happening in my Hoosier state (besides the Democratic turnaround in the House races): Though Dick Lugar (R-IN) is running unopposed for re-election to the Senate, he is still advertising!

    Ads are showing up on the main TV stations in Indianapolis at least once during prime time hours on pretty much a daily basis. It does not appear to be a major buy and there is no indication how long these ads will run.

    Still, in a “red” state with NO opponent, why would Lugar even want to waste his money. He’ll get the votes no matter what!

  • As a Nevadan, I can say that we really do not appreciate newcomers to the state like Dina Titus and Jimmy Carter. The democratic party should just take them back to wherever they came from. Talk about Carpetbaggers!

  • “As a Nevadan, I can say that we really do not appreciate newcomers to the state like Dina Titus and Jimmy Carter.” – Hortense

    Isn’t most of the population of Nevada first generation? How long have you even had Las Vegas? I thought the whole state pretty much moved in 😉

  • Ford is running an aggressive campaign. This is one to keep an eye on, if successful it could serve as a southern state model.

    Course it does not hurt that Corker looks and sounds like a doofus.

  • I just worry that Ford’s polling, as has been the case with so many African-American candidates in the south, overstates his real support. He’ll probably need a double-digit lead for me to feel confident that Corker will be making a concesssion speech late on Nov. 7.

    Hopefully this gets better over time, and maybe the fact that the guy is evidently such a great campaigner makes a difference. But until the trend breaks, I’ll worry.

    Great news from PA, though. Casey’s campaign says they have enough money to stay on the air through Election Day, which is a relief, and with Green Boy hopefully off the ballot, it’s time for the committed lefties in PA to hold their noses and vote for Bob. To send Sick Rick home (to Virginia), it will be well worth it.

  • “To send Sick Rick home (to Virginia), it will be well worth it.” – dajafi

    Why do we keep getting the worst of America’s rejects? First DeLay and now Santorum.

    Give the Commonwealth a break people. Isn’t having George Felix “Macaca” Allen Junior transplanted here from California (Whittier’s 2nd most famous citizen, no less) bad enough?

  • Lance, I’m not blaming Virginia (and FWIW, I’m a native PA’er–so in a sense I have to claim Santorum). It’s just that your state abuts DC, so the slime ooze back there when they’re done hurting all of us on the public payroll. Not to add to your woes, but a recent New Republic profile on McLean, VA ends with the note that Cheney has bought land there and will reside after he leaves office.

    Personally, I’d prefer to see his wretched life end in a federal jail cell, but I won’t hold my breath. So at least true Virginians can leave flaming bags of dog poop on his lawn, or something…

  • AP has a story up saying the Colorado race is “seen as a tossup,” even as Ritter has built a 16-point lead. I wonder. If Beauprez had a lead that big, would they be calling the race in the bag?
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060926/ap_on_el_gu/colorado_governor;_ylt=AkMmU3LN5qHW0oV.MF0j2C.s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3OXIzMDMzBHNlYwM3MDM-

    The entire article is about how the Beauprez campaign is imploding under a string of insensitive remarks followed by apologies. A prominent local pollster is quoted as saying “I don’t know that it’s over, but it’s getting very, very close.”

    Yet AP calls it a tossup. Do their headline writers actually read the stories, or do they simply spin them to the right as a matter of course?

  • Oops, they changed the headline to “GOP candidate stumbles in Colo. race.” I’d like to think that my letter to the AP editor had something to do with this, but I doubt it. I do stil wonder about the headline writers, though.

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