It’s hardly a secret that the Democrats’ strategy for 2008 is premised, at least in part, on tying John McCain to George W. Bush. This isn’t complicated — Bush is the least popular president since the dawn of modern polling; Americans are desperate for a change in direction; and by showing voters that McCain offers more of the same, Dems’ chances of success increase considerably. In some Democratic circles, this approach even has a name: “McSame.”
Which is why I find it odd that Sidney Blumenthal is taking the counter-intuitive position and arguing that Dems give up on this strategy and try something else.
Sidney Blumenthal, a former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and strategist for Hillary Clinton’s Democratic presidential campaign, went “off message” (his words) today with a warning to his party: Don’t run against GOP nominee John McCain by painting him as Bush III, because he’s not.
Bucking the Democratic National Committee’s talking points that characterize a potential McCain administration as tantamount to a third Bush term, Blumenthal told our Liz Halloran that running on that strategy in the fall would be a mistake. “I understand people’s political reasons for doing that,” he said. “I think it’s more helpful to describe [political opponents] as they are.”
Bottom line, Blumenthal calls the strategy “a mistake” and adds: “The public doesn’t see [McCain] that way. That’s a hard sell.” … What hurts the presumed Republican nominee? His need, Blumenthal says, to reassure conservative Republicans about the kind of nominees he’d make to the Supreme Court.
If I understand Blumenthal’s argument, he’s saying people don’t perceive McCain as being like Bush, so Dems shouldn’t put too much effort into a pitch that people aren’t going to believe.
Blumenthal’s strategic point is not without merit. As Greg Sargent noted, Dems have a challenge on their hands given that the “media has seared the ‘McCain is a maverick’ line into the electorate’s brain for 15 years or more.” Fair enough.
But I’m still cautiously optimistic that Blumenthal’s mistaken.
There’s already some polling data showing that Bush is an albatross for McCain, and it’s seriously undermining his support. There was this NBC/WSJ poll…
Sen. Barack Obama’s ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright could hurt his presidential hopes. So could his comment about “bitter” small-town America clinging to guns and religion. And Americans might question Sen. Hillary Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness.
But according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the bigger problem appears to be John McCain’s ties to President Bush.
In the survey, 43 percent of registered voters say they have major concerns that McCain is too closely aligned with the current administration.
…and this Gallup poll.
George W. Bush may do as much damage to John McCain’s chances of being elected as Jeremiah Wright does to Barack Obama’s, according to results of a recent USA Today/Gallup poll.
The May 1-3 poll finds 38% of likely voters saying McCain’s association with Bush makes them less likely to vote for McCain, while 33% say Obama’s association with Wright diminishes their likelihood of voting for Obama.
But data aside, Blumenthal’s argument seems to be based largely on the notion that public perceptions about McCain are solid and unmovable. But I can’t find any evidence to support this. Indeed, isn’t this what campaigns are for — educating the public about your strengths and your rival’s weaknesses? Changing their minds about preconceived ideas? McCain may not be perceived as a stay-the-course loyal Bushie now, but that’s all the more reason to get started.
What’s more, this shouldn’t be especially difficult. McCain really is running on a four-more-years platform. In other words, the Democrats’ attack strategy has the added benefit of being true. On everything from the economy to foreign policy to the judiciary, there is simply no daylight between Bush and McCain. Oddly enough, over the last several weeks, the two have been getting closer on their policy agreements, not further apart.
Blumenthal thinks Dems shouldn’t pursue this as a campaign strategy? Here’s to hoping the DNC doesn’t take his advice.
