Republican majorities in both chambers may have increased in November, but Bush is going to have to change a lot of minds — among members of his own party — if his Social Security scheme has any chance at all.
Many Republicans are expressing reservations about the political wisdom of President Bush’s vision for restructuring Social Security, as the White House today intensifies its campaign to restructure the entitlement program for the retired and disabled.
Bush, who relishes challenging the conventional wisdoms of Washington, has privately counseled Republicans that partially privatizing Social Security will be a boon for the GOP and has urged skeptics to hold fire until he builds a public case for change. But several influential Republicans are warning that Bush’s plan could backfire on the party in next year’s elections, especially if the plan includes cuts in benefits.
Most alarming to White House officials, some congressional Republicans are panning the president’s plan — even before it is unveiled. “Why stir up a political hornet’s nest . . . when there is no urgency?” said Rep. Rob Simmons (Conn.), who represents a competitive district. “When does the program go belly up? 2042. I will be dead by then.”
Simmons said there is no way he will support Bush’s idea of allowing younger Americans to divert some of their payroll taxes into private accounts, especially when there are more pressing needs, such as shoring up Medicare and providing armor to U.S. troops in Iraq.
Rep. Jack Kingston (Ga.), a member of the GOP leadership, said 15 to 20 House Republicans agree with Simmons, although others say the number is closer to 40.
About a month ago, Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, former chairman of the House Republican campaign committee, said he knew of about 30 House Republicans, including him, who are already inclined to oppose Bush’s Social Security plan. It sounds like that number is going up, not down.
This continues to have “Domestic Debacle for the Ages” written all over it.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), one of the chamber’s most enthusiastic supporters of privitization, believes Bush’s approach is misguided and, as he put it, “irresponsible.” Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) says Bush’s plan puts House Republicans in a “no-win” sitution. A Republican senator reportedly told Karl Rove at a GOP retreat last month that the party’s lawmakers are “scared to death” of this entire debate.
And that’s just on the Hill.
Outside Congress, several party activists are sounding similar alarms after word spread last week that Bush is planning to reduce future benefits as part of the restructuring. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) is warning that Republicans could lose their 10-year House majority if the White House follows through with that proposal.
William Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, is challenging the president’s assertions that Social Security is in crisis and that Republicans will be rewarded for fixing it. Republicans are privately “bewildered why this is such a White House priority,” he said. “I am a skeptic politically and a little bit substantively.”
Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, also maintain the ability to read poll numbers.
Some Republicans question whether Bush’s victories had anything to do with Social Security. A post-election survey by Pew found that Social Security was named by 1 percent of voters as the most important or second most important issue in deciding their vote.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll in late December found that 1 in 4 Americans thinks the Social Security system is in crisis, and the percentage that says the country is facing a Social Security crisis has gone down, not up, since 1998.
“I don’t buy the partisan argument that Republicans benefit by somehow carving up this Democratic program,” Kristol said. He contended it could undermine other GOP initiatives, such as making Bush’s tax cuts permanent, because it would sap money and the president’s political capital.
Bush can be as cocky as he wants, but these guys are running scared. The White House can deal with a few GOP defections here and there, but if the Dems stick together, and those few Republican defections turn into 40, he’s going to suffer one of the biggest political defeats for any president in a long time.