Utah notwithstanding, the bottom is falling out for Bush

October 19, 2005

A new national SurveyUSA poll has Bush’s overall approval rating at 38%, making it the fifth national poll released in the last week or so showing Bush’s support below 40% (following along the same lines as Gallup, NBC, AP, and CBS).

SurveyUSA, however, as it is wont to do, breaks down the numbers state-by-state.

The top five:

Utah — 61% approve, 36% disapprove
Idaho — 55% approve, 44% disapprove
Wyoming — 54% approve, 44% disapprove
Alaska — 52% approve, 44% disapprove
Nebraska — 52% approve, 45% disapprove

The bottom five:

Massachusetts — 28% approve, 68% disapprove
Vermont — 29% approve, 69% disapprove
Rhode Island — 29% approve, 70% disapprove
New York — 30% approve, 66% disapprove
Illinois and Connecticut (tied) — 32% approve, 66% disapprove

One interesting angle to this poll, however, is that the top five, instead of just being Bush’s strongest states, are practically the only states where Bush remains strong at all. In May, Bush was above 50% in 13 states. By September, that number had fallen to 10 states. In this poll, as Kos noted, Bush is above 50% in only six states (Alaska, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming).

Moreover, Bush has consistently relied on the South to bolster his national numbers. But if you define the South as the 11 states of the old confederacy, Bush’s approval rating now tops the 50% mark in zero southern states.

A reader recently asked me why I frequently do posts about these polls. With Bush no longer running for anything, he said, it doesn’t really matter.

To be sure, this has some merit, and the polls aren’t nearly as interesting as they were during the campaign. But I do these posts for a few reasons: 1) It’s a morale booster; 2) Bush’s sinking popularity has a ripple effect for Republicans nationwide and the president’s agenda on the Hill; 3) I think it’s helpful to remind Bush critics everywhere that they’re not alone; and 4) I just find the polls entertaining.

“A reader recently asked me why I frequently do posts about these polls. With Bush no longer running for anything, he said, it doesn’t really matter.

To be sure, this has some merit, and the polls aren’t nearly as interesting as they were during the campaign. But I do these posts for a few reasons: 1) It’s a morale booster; 2) Bush’s sinking popularity has a ripple effect for Republicans nationwide and the president’s agenda on the Hill; 3) I think it’s helpful to remind Bush critics everywhere that they’re not alone; and 4) I just find the polls entertaining.”

It’s good you mention that because I think those points have a lot of merit, even though I did believe the polls to be pointless too. Maybe I’m thinking optimistically, but I think the dissatisfaction with Bush will translate into huge opportunities for Democrats to gain some Congressional seats, if they can only get their act together. Optimistically, it could be that 2006 will be our 1994. Optimistically, I say, because I still don’t see a lot of strong opposition coming out of the Democrats.

  • If morale boosting is what you’re after, you might note how Bush polled in Texas.

    Good point. In Texas, Bush’s approval rating has dropped to just 42%. Amazing.

  • I’ve been speculating – the latest Gallup poll has appproval of Congress down to 29 and disapproval up to 64. Combined with the rising tide against Iraq; Bushs’ sinking approval, Miers, Katrina, and Cronyinsm; if Bush is named as an unindicted co-conspiritor…

    Congress may have to hold impeachment hearings for the sake of self preservation. The base may not care about the legal status of the Crony-in-Chief, but comparisons to Nixon will be inevitable.

    And IF CONGRESS DOES NOT ACT, then the Democratic party should sue for access to Electronic Voting codes. Dems should also seek to bar the use of Diebold technology in the next two national elections. A congressional failure to act would raise a red flag that the Majority Party has circumvented the need to bow to the the will of the people and do not fear being voted out of office for their dereliction of duty. Because they CAN’T be voted out.

  • If one goes by population, using the census date from April 2000, here’s how things break down:

    THE TOP FIVE
    Utah — 61% approve, 36% disapprove
    pop 2,233,169 (1,362,233; 803,941)

    Idaho — 55% approve, 44% disapprove
    pop 1,293,953 (711,674; 569,339)

    Wyoming — 54% approve, 44% disapprove
    pop 493,782 (266,642; 217,264)

    Alaska — 52% approve, 44% disapprove
    pop 626,932 (326,005; 275,850)

    Nebraska — 52% approve, 45% disapprove
    pop 1,711,263 (889,857; 770,068)

    Total pop: 6,192,873 (2.2% total US pop)
    Approve: 3,556,411(57%)
    Disapprove: 2,636,462 (43%)

    THE BOTTOM FIVE:
    Massachusetts — 28% approve, 68% disapprove
    pop 6,349,097 (1,777,747; 4,317,386)

    Vermont — 29% approve, 69% disapprove
    pop 608,827 (176,560; 420,091)

    Rhode Island — 29% approve, 70% disapprove
    pop 1,048,319 (304,013; 733,832)

    New York — 30% approve, 66% disapprove
    pop 18,976,457 (5,692,937; 12,524,462)

    Illinois and Connecticut (tied) — 32% approve, 66% disapp
    pop 12,419,293 (3,974,174; 8,196,733)
    3,405,565 (1,089,781; 2,247,673)

    Total pop: 42,807,558 (15.2% total US pop)
    Approve: 13,015,212 (33.6%)
    Disapprove: 23,440,177 (66.4%)

    OVERALL
    Total pop 11 States: 49,000,431 (17.4%)
    Approve: 16,571,623 (46.8%)
    Disapprove: 26,076,639 (53.2%)

  • I think the polls have an additional value – for years Bush supporters have suppressed dissent and criticism of the Bush regime policies as “unAmerican”, and parleyed a relatively slim electoral victory as a “mandate” – and the media has tended to go along with this viewpoint. Yet as the polls show that the vast majority of Americans disagree, this has “legitimzed” dissent and criticism (not that it needs to be legitimized, but illustrates that Bush supporters arguments no longer hold water) and this is being increasingly recognized in the media.

  • I think when approval/disapproval balance tips in one direction then that direction should be emphasized. To clarify: if more state polls have higher disapproval than approval numbers, then the disapproval should be featured. For example, while Texas gives George W. Bush a 42% approval rating, the disapproval rating for Texas is 54%!!!!!

  • My son in Boise will be pleased to know that 569,338 others in his state agree with him – in fact, being in Boise he’s probably in the majority (those who disapprove), which is positively liberal compared to the rest of the state. Enlightened educated folks, and all that…

  • another reason why it matters:

    the r. party has identified itself completely w/bush; a consensus candidate that unified the free marketers with the religious flank and appealed to cautious dem. centrists because he ‘seemed nice’.

    consider that reagan only gained the affection of the wider r. party after he won the first term election, and went on to gain the affection of many americans after they ‘got to know him’ over eight years. (a point many who never liked him have a hard time admitting).

    the whole bush disaster – it seems to me – came about from trying to manufacture – or market – a year-eight reagan from a year-one bush. it worked for a while because the rove machine was good at both presentation of the product and countering threats to brand loyalty. however they oversold the dream and when the time came for – oh – a modicum of real leadership and a sympathetic connection to the citizens in perilous times, the product was a lie.

    this would not be such a big deal for the r.’s if they were not all chained at the ankles on the capsizing ship (i am mixing metaphores and apologize for it). plenty of good republicans were able to jump free of nixon and lead the party to greater glory. that is not the case now.

  • It matters a great deal to those of us in the south who are looking for ANY indication that the repug stranglehold could be broken here. Unlike most of the blue state crowd, we are suffering routinely under the neocon agenda at the state and local levels. The more popular the conservatives are at the national level, the bolder these local wingnuts get with their intelligent design and school voucher programs. An 18% drop in SC is like manna from heaven to us.

  • I think the other thing that matters about these polls is that when the president loses popularity, it makes it that much more difficult for him to advance his agenda. If his support is low enough, it’s likely that members of the House and Senate are more inclined to distance themselves from an unpopular president, and thus are more likely to vote against the wishes of the administration.

    Witness how much bolder the craven Republicans have become in the Senate in this second term. Recently they’ve dared to vote FOR a measure that included laws against torture of POWs in spite of Bush’s veto threat. (The House is a different story, as they still seemed to be ruled by the iron fist of the DeLay machine.)

    Despite what the Republican propaganda machine would have you believe, and what the DeLay Machine believes about themselves, it really is true that you can only fool some of the people some of the time. Bush’s popularity is sinking despite the MSM’s efforts to carry water for his administration. Sooner or later, Republican office-holders will need to wake up to the fact that the citizens of this country are increasingly disapproving of them, and there’s no upside to rubber-stamping the administration’s plans and actions.

    As we sit on the sidelines and watch the president’s numbers slide further and further downhill, we should also be watching the Senate to see if they’re becoming correspondingly independant. (The House is under more rigid Republican control and Republican members are less likely to break ranks.) The closer that Republican senators who are up for re-election in ’06 ally themselves with this administration, the easier it will be for their Democratic opponents to remind voters of just how this unpopular president got his way.

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