The first clue that there was something odd about the results of the straw poll at the “Values Voter Summit” was Ron Paul’s strong, third-place showing. Paul emphasized his opposition to abortion rights during his speech on Friday, but he also garnered a smattering of boos when describing his libertarian worldview.
When the results were published, though, there was Paul with 15% support. How’d this happen? As it turns out, the straw poll wasn’t actually a straw poll — the event’s religious right organizers made it easy to stuff the ballot box by allowing online voting.
The official tally, which included over 5,000 votes, showed Mitt Romney on top with 27.6% support, followed by Mike Huckabee with 27.1%. Paul was third with 15%, and Fred Thompson was fourth with just under 10%. But if you limit the results to people who were actually in the room for the far-right gathering, you get an entirely different set of results.
1. Mike Huckabee – 488 votes – 51.26%
2. Mitt Romney – 99 votes – 10.40%
3. Fred Thompson – 77 votes – 8.09%
4. Tom Tancredo – 65 votes – 6.83%
5. Rudy Giuliani – 60 votes – 6.30%
6. Duncan Hunter – 54 votes – 5.67%
7. John McCain – 30 votes – 3.15%
8. Sam Brownback – 26 votes – 2.73%
9. Ron Paul – 25 votes – 2.63%
That’s a huge difference. Huckabee goes from a close second to an easy first. Romney goes from the big winner to a distant second. Paul goes from third to last. John McCain … well, he’s still unpopular with this crowd no matter which results you look at.
Apparently, conference attendees had to vote in-person, but the Family Research Council let online visitors register a vote for as little as $1. Romney’s campaign recognized the opportunity in advance, and sent a mass alert to its email list on Thursday: “Let me tell you how simple this is! Just go to www.frcaction.org and click on the large banner ‘Participate in the 2008 American Values Straw Poll.’ ”
Of course, the discrepancy between the official straw-poll results and the opinion of those activists who showed up raises a few pertinent questions.
First, are we seeing a schism between religious right leaders and the religious right rank and file? Dobson, Perkins, and others are mad as hatters, but they’re also savvy political players. They perceive Huckabee as right, but uncompetitive and unelectable. Romney, in the eyes of many evangelical leaders, is the credible anti-Giuliani. It’s possible the event organizers set up the system this way on purpose, in order to get the desired result. It suggests the movement’s foot-soldiers are not necessarily on the same page as those at the top.
Second, can Huckabee actually capitalize on his strong showing? He did well in the Ames Straw Poll several weeks ago, but it didn’t translate to a boost in fundraising and/or endorsements.
Third, Romney may have “won” the straw poll, but isn’t he the big loser out of this? He showed up, brought along plenty of supporters to fill the room, and delivered his best pitch. But for those who heard him speak, he got 10%. Will he win over Dobson, but not Dobson’s acolytes?
And finally, if the religious right leaders do consider abandoning the GOP if Giuliani gets the nomination, might Huckabee be a possible candidate? The former Arkansas governor told the faithful that they should never negotiate on core principles. “Let us never sacrifice our principles for anybody’s politics,” he said. “Not now. Not ever.”
“I don’t want expediency or electability to replace our vales. We live or die by those values,” he said. “I want to make it very clear that I do not spell with ‘G-O-D,’ ‘G-O-P.’ Our party may be important, but our principles are even more important.”
In other words, the party isn’t as important as the issues. Sounds to me like someone who might balk at supporting Giuliani and might consider taking a principled stand on a third-party platform.
Stay tuned.