We now have enough to field a baseball team

Florida Senator Bob Graham today became the ninth, and perhaps last, Democrat to enter the presidential race for 2004. If he can quickly and fully recover from his recent heart surgery, Carpetbagger believes Graham will be a dominant figure in the race. Indeed, while lying in his hospital bed, he was already being touted by many DNC insiders as a top-tier candidate.

The conventional wisdom appears to be that Graham’s entry into the race hurts John Edwards the most. Edwards was the only Southerner in the race, and as his campaign staff likes to remind people, every successful Democratic ticket in the last century, except for Roosevelt/Wallace in 1940, featured at least one candidate from a Southern or Border State. Edwards no longer gets to tell crowds (and potential donors) that he alone can keep that tradition alive. That same conventional wisdom states that Joe Lieberman also suffers from a Graham candidacy, because Lieberman has been so aggressive and successful in raising money in Florida.

But Carpetbagger believes Howard Dean will also be hurt by a Graham campaign. Dean has told audiences for months that he’s the only candidate in the race to have served as a governor, which gives him unique experience that qualifies him for the presidency. Dean has even included a phrase in his stump speech about how the other candidates who have served in Congress have voted on balancing a budget, protecting the environment, and enforcing civil rights, but as a former governor, he’s the only one who’s actually done it. The good doctor also gets to remind the party faithful that the only successful Democratic presidential candidates of the last 30 years were Carter and Clinton — both governors. Just as importantly, particularly with primary voters, Dean has been bashing the hell out Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, and Gephardt for having supported Bush’s resolution on Iraq in Congress.

Graham can match Dean on every one of those points, including having voted against the Iraq resolution.

Graham is, in many ways, the ideal Democratic presidential candidate. He’s not just from the South, he’s from Florida, the single most important state in the union when it comes to presidential politics. He’s not just from Florida, he’s wildly popular there (the Graham family practically helped build the state). He’s not just a popular Senator, he was a successful two-term Governor. He hasn’t just developed a strong reputation on national security issues, he’s the former chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence, and has been a leading voice in Congress on anti-terrorism issues for years (including well-before 9/11).

The one thing you notice about Graham when looking over his resume is that he’s a grown-up. By Election Day 2004, Graham will have been serving in elected office for 38 years, more than any other candidate. In fact, among the seven Republican candidates to seek the GOP’s 2000 nomination, the total years of elected office experience combined was 48, so Graham’s record of public service is pretty impressive.

Alas, all is not good news when it comes to the Graham campaign. Assuming he recovers fully from heart surgery (about which he was not entirely forthcoming), he’s got a long way to go to catch up to the other top-tier candidates who’ve made dozens of trips to Iowa and New Hampshire between them, plus raised millions of dollars. Graham is just getting out of the starting gate while the other guys have already reached the first turn, and his staff has said he’ll be taking March off to recuperate. Not a good sign.

Just as importantly, Graham may be a grown-up, but for a presidential race, he may be too grown up. At 66, he’s the oldest of the nine Democratic candidates. His campaigning style is reserved and, how do I say this politely, mild. He’s not a politician who’s going to pump up a crowd for his fiery oratory skills; he’s a public servant who’s going to write a legislative proposal on how to improve national security at airports.

Perhaps after a term of Bush, America will be ready for someone who is a little more seasoned. We’re about to find out.