I spend so much time and energy focusing on the 2004 elections, it’s sometimes easy to overlook the fact that there are three important statewide races this year. (If you include the circus in California, it could be four statewide races, but who knows when that election will happen?)
In Kentucky, a very competitive gubernatorial race is heating up. The Dem candidate is state Attorney General Ben Chandler, facing Republican Rep. Ernie Fletcher. Despite the fact that the state has been shifting to the GOP in recent years, and the fact that incumbent Democratic governor has been plagued by a personal scandal, the race is a toss-up with less than two months until Election Day. A poll conducted last week showed Chandler and Fletcher tied, each garnering 45% support.
It’s a fun race to watch. Kentucky has not elected a Republican governor in 32 years. When the current governor, Paul Patton (D), suffered politically due to an extramarital affair, the state GOP thought this would be an easy pickup. Chandler, however, a grandson of one of Kentucky’s most famous and popular politicians, “Happy” Chandler, has run a great campaign.
There are also major gubernatorial races ongoing in Louisiana and Mississippi to keep an eye on.
In Louisiana, which has the nuttiest campaign system in the nation, 10 Democrats, four Republicans, and four independents are vying for two run-off positions. After months of campaigning, no one’s really sure who the frontrunner is, or which issues are defining the race. For what it’s worth, the most recent polling I’ve seen suggests Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) enjoys a slim lead over former HHS official Bobby Jindal (R).
Meanwhile, Mississippi features the only gubernatorial race this year in which the incumbent is seeking re-election — Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is facing former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour. Everyone expects the race to be close, but no one has any idea how close. Not a single pollster has done a survey in Mississippi this campaign cycle. (What’s up with that?)
While all three are noteworthy, I know what you’re thinking. “Carpetbagger, will the results in these races tell us anything about the 2004 cycle?” Well, I’m glad you asked.
Unfortunately, the results probably won’t tell us much, if recent history is any indication.
In 2001, just two months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and with Bush’s approval ratings reaching all-time highs, there were two statewide gubernatorial races, one in Virginia, the other in New Jersey. Given Bush’s popularity, you might think the Republican candidates would have done pretty well. Wrong. Democrats won both campaigns fairly easily.
Did these odd-year campaigns give us any indications for 2002? Just the opposite. Dems won in 2001 but proceeded to get trounced in 2002, losing seats in the U.S. House for the first time in eight years and losing seats (and control of) the U.S. Senate.
Even if we look back on recent Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi elections, we don’t learn too much about the presidential elections that have followed them.
In Kentucky, Patton (D) won easily in 1999, but Bush went on to crush Gore in the same state a year later.
In Louisiana, Mike Foster (R) won his first term in 1995 by a wide margin, a year before Bill Clinton easily carried Louisiana in the 1996 election.
Mississippi, meanwhile, is completely turned around. In the last 40 years, the state has only elected one Republican governor. In the same period of time, the state has only supported one Democratic presidential candidate.
This is not to say these races don’t matter; they do. It just means we may not get any hints about the 2004 cycle this year.
One last thing to point out — if Dems will all three of these races, which I think is a distinct possibility, the party will have a majority of U.S. governors for the first time since 1992.