Wednesday’s campaign round-up

April 2, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Another big endorsement pickup for Obama: “Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has won the endorsement of one of his party’s top foreign policy figures, Lee Hamilton, who hails from Indiana, home to one of the next crucial primary votes. Hamilton, a former U.S. House member who co-chaired the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and headed the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he was impressed by Obama’s approach to national security and foreign policy.”

* After a brief lull last week, there are a couple of new polls out of Pennsylvania this morning. Quinnipiac shows Clinton leading Obama by nine (50-41), down from a 12-point lead two weeks ago. Public Policy Polling, oddly enough, shows Obama up by two (45-43), which is a 28-point swing in just two weeks. For the record, the PPP poll is the first to show Obama leading in Pennsylvania, and given all of the other data — from Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and others — I don’t buy into the results at all.

* Speaking of polls, the internals of the latest Quinnipiac report offer some good news for Clinton fans. In Florida, she leads McCain by two, while McCain leads Obama by nine. In Ohio, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain, but Obama’s margin is smaller. Likewise, in Pennsylvania, Clinton leads McCain by eight, while Obama leads McCain by four.

* John McCain told Don Imus this morning that he has begun “getting together a list of names” for running-mate consideration. “I’d like to get it done as early as possible. I’m aware of enhanced importance of this issue given my age,” McCain said.

* March wasn’t as big a fundraising month for the candidates as February, but the Dems still fared pretty well. It looks like Obama took in over $30 million, while Clinton collected about $20 million.

* It’s not a big surprise, but I believe this was the first on-the-record confirmation: “In an interview with me this morning, senior Hillary adviser Harold Ickes confirmed that Reverend Jeremiah Wright is a key topic in discussions with uncommitted super-delegates over whether Obama is electable in a general election.”

* Apparently, things got a little heated over the weekend when Bill Clinton met privately with California’s superdelegates at their state party convention.

* Indiana, one of the more competitive primaries remaining on the calendar, appears to favor Clinton at this point. SurveyUSA shows her leading Obama by nine, 52% to 43%.

* Interesting Gallup poll: “Only 42% of Democrats nationwide want Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic vice presidential nominee if Barack Obama wins the presidential nomination, while 55% think he should pick someone else. By contrast, the majority of Democrats — 58% — would like to see Obama nominated as vice president if Clinton heads the ticket.”

* McCain has assured the right that he won’t try to “soften” the party platform in opposition to abortion and gay rights.

* The Richardson/Carville drama continues to percolate.

* And Gallup is insisting that its daily tracking polls do not fall victim to a “day of the week” effect, and that recent trends to that effect are a coincidence.

Wonder if McCain is looking for someone older to make him look young?

“Let’s see … Alf Landon is dead, Strom Thurmond is dead … Ted Stevens is crazier than I am … Hey — Bob Dole!”

  • It is interesting that every major poll that we are seeing for Pennsylvania is showing the same trend toward Obama? I am a realist, so I don’t expect him to overtake Clinton in the state, but if this trend continues it could be a low single digit difference on primary day. Wouldn’t it be interesting if the margin was say 2-5%?

  • This is what Obama does: surges late and closes the gap. Go to Pollster.com and check the graphs on almost every state. It would not suprise me if he pulled this out of the hat. Pennsylvania seems to be our last best hope of ending this in a reasonablr fashion (If she loses and then bows out). However, I’m certain if she scrapes by, even theoretically, on any metric, it will used as an excuse to continue… *Sigh*

  • Hmm, you have to like the realism about age on the part of McCain, but he’s going to have to be careful that he’s not interpreted to mean “you’re really voting for my running mate, because I’m not going to be around much longer.”

    Also regarding age, the poll numbers in Florida are interesting. Hillary smokes Obama in the old white people vote, especially old white women, and that’s huge in Florida. There’s been some discussion about whether America is ready for a black President, but this really points up that it doesn’t matter if America is ready so much as whether key demographics in swing states are ready.

  • Re Brooks in #5. Great. Old white ladies in Florida get to decide who’s president. Unfortunately I can see that happening, especially if the Republicans continue to refine their methods of excluding blacks.

    Nobody said this would be easy.

  • Well isn’t it nice that for every person Bill Clinton convinces that Obama can’t win the general election the enthusiasm and expectations of Dems are lessened by that amount. It’s like talking down the economy.

  • But aren’t these little old ladies the ones who couldn’t figure out the butterfly ballots? Who’s to say they understood the pollsters?

  • Why the surprise about the Quinnipiac poll. This has been true all along; Clinton does better in popular vote in all the large population states. Precisely why Obama campaign has until very recently refused to consider a re-do in Michigan and Florida. And, by the way, old folks are citizens too and, as such have a right to vote, as do the “lunch pail” Democrats you also malign.

  • I think it’s important to note how shrill Hillary has become, and the smackdown Lee Hamilton puts on her ass:

    “He wavers from seeming to believe that mediation and meetings without preconditions can solve some of the world’s most intractable problems, to advocating rash, unilateral military action without cooperation from our allies in the most sensitive region of the world,” Clinton said Feb. 25 in Washington.

    Hamilton said he agreed with Obama’s position on meeting with U.S. adversaries such as the leaders of Iran without conditions. Also, Obama’s consideration of unilateral military action against terrorist hideouts in Pakistan, is already U.S. policy…

  • speaking of polls, rasmussen has Clinton ahead nationally by 1 percentage point.

    Gallup has a new poll analysis out today Obama, Clinton Leverage Different Groups vs. McCain

    This is very interesting, the head to head matchups vs. McCain show 10% of blacks defecting to McCain if Clinton wins, truthfully I don’t beleive this scenario actually plays out in November, I think some of those may decide not to vote, but would they actually vote for McCain???

    This same analysis shows white conservative democracts backing Clinton by very large numbers, while 35% defect to McCain if Obama is the candidate.

    I don’t generally read too much into polls, and I’m not trying to make a point except that this is some interesting analysis.

  • The Democratic candidates didn’t campaign in Florida. Hillary is leading there by name recognition mostly. Obama always does better in a state once he actually gets there and makes the rounds.

  • Speaking of polls, the internals of the latest Quinnipiac report offer some good news for Clinton fans. In Florida, she leads McCain by two, while McCain leads Obama by nine.

    This is a result of Clinton’s baseless lies and line of attack blaming Obama for the punishment that Florida and Michigan deserved. Do you foolish, destructive Clintonistas still think her blatant, self-serving distortions have no effect on the success of the Democratic party?

    This may be good news for Clinton fans, but this is resoundingly bad news for Democrats.

  • racerx: “Nobody said this would be easy.”

    Oh, I don’t know about that. It wasn’t too long ago when many were suggesting that Democrats could nominate the proverbial yellow dog and beat the GOP in November.

  • This is a result of Clinton’s baseless lies and line of attack blaming Obama for the punishment that Florida and Michigan deserved. – doubtful

    Howard Dean will suffer politically for this travesty, so what if a small group of politicians in an effort to protest the monopoly of early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire decided to “break the rules”, does this justify disenfranchisement of millions of voters in 2 of the nations BIGGEST swing states?!?!

    Seriously, do you think you are doing your candidate justice by repeating this nonsense that FL & MI voters got what they deserved? It would be in Obama’s best interests to appear to be on the side of voters in MI & FL, instead he himself decided not to compromise because it would hurt his front-runner status.

    He did it to himself, stop blaming her… besides, Floridians are not robots, we tend to think for ourselves, and if you remember we actually voted in favor of Clinton over Obama by 17%, so these numbers are right in line with the demographics of the state.

  • Speaking of polls, the Public Policy Poll is reporting that in Pennsylvania, Obama has pulled ahead of clinton and the race now stands at 45% Obama, 43% Clinton.

    Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

    Obama’s steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race.

    Obama has his customary large advantage with black voters (75-17) and is keeping it relatively competitive with white voters (49-38)

    He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton’s 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

    Full results here.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf

  • Seriously, do you think you are doing your candidate justice by repeating this nonsense that FL & MI voters got what they deserved? -Greg

    I never said the voters got what they deserved, I said the states got what they deserved, and they broke the rules knowing full well they’d be punished for it and Clinton and Harold Ickes agreed…then. The voters were unfortunate collateral damage that Clinton didn’t give a shit about until it suited her needs.

    They are the only ones who’ve changed their tune.

    You truly have no concept of rules and consequences. The state governments of MI and FL brokes some rules and must suffer the consequence. Their motivation is irrelevant, but if it were a protest as you claim, then it certainly wouldn’t be the first or last time someone was punished for protesting. Typically protesters wear their punishment as a badge of courage. Not a tiny violin of pity.

    Obama and Howard Dean didn’t do anything to Florida or Michigan, so you can dispense with the lies. Be made and Ickes and the rules committee if you can handle the cognitive dissonance.

    I know you live in Florida and that therefore renders you entirely incapable of understanding or comprehending anything related to an election, but please, join us in reality for a moment.

    Obama had nothing to do with the elimination of delegates from those states. No one has been disfranchised. You can complain if someone prevents you from voting in November, but you have no rights to voting in a primary to lose and as far as I recall, you did get to vote. You just don’t get to seat any delegates.

    And there is nothing in the Florida demographics that suggests Obama would fare so poorly against McCain as the false equivalence you cited. So it must have another cause. And my educated guess is that easy led sheep have bought Clinton’s lie hook, line, and sinker, that somehow a scary black man has prevented them from mattering.

    Stand up and take responsibility for your own state government and stop blaming those that had nothing to do with your loss of delegates and their inability to organize a revote.

  • there is nothing in the Florida demographics that suggests Obama would fare so poorly against McCain – doubtful

    Florida is made up of mostly old white people, this demographic favors Clinton, not Obama.

  • Oops! I posted a poll CB had already referred to. – aristedes

    He also went on to say:

    For the record, the PPP poll is the first to show Obama leading in Pennsylvania, and given all of the other data — from Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and others — I don’t buy into the results at all.

    One of the many reasons I still read Steve’s writing, despite our differences of opinion about who would make the better candidate, he is usually factually accurate and tends to not see things that aren’t there.

  • doubtful

    you sound as angry as rev wright.

    obama opposed NEW primaries in Florida and Michigan, and those voters know it even if his opposition was covert. there was no “rule” precluding a new primary.

  • YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

    If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. 🙂

    Best regards

    jacksmith…

  • Don’t buy into the Florida, Michigan and Ohio polls yet. Remember Obama has NEVER even campaigned there. Hiliary is ahead by name recognition only. He only spent 2 days in Ohio and still only lost by 10 points. He started 25 behind Texas and ended up with more delegates. When he does start appearing in these states people will get to see and hear him there. He has been in Pa for 1 week and already we are seeing in movement. Remember where he has come from before writing him off.

  • You Might Be An Idiot……

    Well, I guess I’m another idiot who was completely turned off by Queenie’s sense of unconditional entitlement to the Democratic nomination…and another idiot who, as a lifelong New Yorker, was appalled when Hillary opportunistically moved to NY at the end of her husband’s administration just so she could have a shot at office when he finished (as if she really was representative of the State and knew the issues that were of importance to NY)….and another idiot who realizes that her VAST pool of experience is a mile wide and much less than an inch deep.

    Really, Jack, where’s the pay stubs for all her incredible experience? Did she drop them in Tuzla as she dashed for the car?

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you believe that Hillary really has that much more experience than Barack.

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