Wednesday’s political round-up

June 1, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Former President George H.W. Bush apparently believes a different son, Jeb, should follow in the family business. In an interview on CNN’s “Larry King Live,” former President Bush said he would want Jeb to run for president “someday,” but now was not the time. “The timing’s wrong,” Bush Sr. said. “The main thing is, he doesn’t want to do it. Nobody believes that.” (No, the quote didn’t quite make sense to me, either.)

* With just a week left before New Jersey’s Republican gubernatorial primary, a new Quinnipiac poll shows businessman Doug Forrester with an 11-point lead over his principal rival, former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, 40%-29%. The other five candidates remain in single digits. Last month, Forrester led, but by only six points.

* Forrester’s lead over Schundler has not come on the cheap. Forrester has vastly outspent his six rivals, including having spent $2.4 million of his own money to pay for television commercials and other campaign expenses in just the last month. Forrester has spent a total of nearly $9 million on the race, which is far more than all the other contenders combined. In contrast, Schundler has spent under $1.8 million.

* Dems in Montana, who believe Sen. Conrad Burns (R) is vulnerable next year, now have some polling data to flesh out their suspicions. The bad news is a new Mason-Dixon poll shows the incumbent Burns leading his likely rivals. The good news is the poll shows Burns barely at the 50% mark, which suggests his support his thin for an incumbent senator in a “red” state. State Auditor John Morrison (D) trails Burns 49%-34%, while State Senate President Jon Tester (D) trails Burns 50%-26%, in large part because of Tester’s low name recognition.

* Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) has another GOP rival for next year, former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer. Spencer, who was forced from office by term limits in 2003, said yesterday he will seek the Republican and Conservative nominations to run for the Senate next year. He’s the second candidate to throw his hat into the ring, following lawyer Ed Cox, who last month announced his intention to run.

* Maryland is one of several states to have September primary elections, which gives candidates less time to compete before a general election and offers a huge financial advantage to candidates who don’t face primary opponents. A move is underway, however, to change the rules before next year’s elections to move the 2006 primary forward from September to June. The proposal has the backing of the state’s top elected Democrats, including two U.S. senators, six members of Congress, Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan. Republicans, including Gov. Bob Ehrlich, are cool to the idea, but Dem leaders in the legislature hope to have the votes to override a veto.

The reason that Poppy Bush doesn’t want Jeb to run in 2008 is that he knows that whomever is sworn in as President on January 20, 2009, will either inherit or preside over an economy in meltdown, and likely have a draft (or implement one) due to the ongoing quagmires in Afghanistan, Iraq, and probably North Korea, Iran, and Syria.

Most of W’s economic projections END with FY 2008 (i.e., end with September 30, 2009), and that date just so happens to be the magic date — sort of like Jack’s magic beans that grew to gigantic proportions — in which all of the tax cuts, if made permanent, will explode the deficits. Worse, Bush’s current and projected budgets have conveniently left out (1) the ongoing funding needs for Iraq and Afghanistan, (2) the cost of the Medicare drug plan, (3) the true cost of making the tax cuts permanent, and (4) most importantly to middle income taxpayers, the cost to “fix” and index (for inflation) the alternative minimum tax.

I’m not sure who would want to be President when all of this shit hits the proverbial fan. I AM sure, however, that it had better be a progressive Democrat; otherwise, the problem will go from a disaster to a calamity of epochal dimensions.

  • Representative Jim Nussle (R – IA1) has formally entered next year’s race for Iowa’s governor.

    Incumbent Tom Vilsack (D) has previously said he wasn’t running for a third term.

    Brief background from AP: “Nussle was elected to Congress in 1990, and for three terms has headed the House Budget Committee. He joins Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats as GOP candidates.

    On the Democratic side, state Rep. Ed Fallon of Des Moines has already announced his candidacy. Secretary of State Chet Culver, Senate Democratic Leader Michael Gronstal and Department of Economic Development head Michael Blouin are pondering bids.”

  • I think Jeb won’t run in 2008 because of the simple fact that it would be too dynastic or something to have the president’s brother succeed him. Also, despite what a lot of experts say, I don’t think Bush will be particularly popular by 08 (maybe 40 percent approval?), and associations with him will call to mind partisanship and too-Christian conservatism, making the election a cakewalk for Hillary or whoever gets our nomination.

  • From the poll you’d like to be able to pronounce, Quinnipiac University, from a survey taken from April 4 to 11, 2005, of 1,044 Florida registered voters (MoE, +/- 3%)

    In response to the question “Would you like Jeb Bush to run for President in 2008 or not?”, 69% said no, 21% said yes.

    The irony of it is that in response to the question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?”, 51% approved, 39% disapproved.

    So it appears Floridians like him as Governor, but don’t want him anywhere near the Presidency.

    Seeing as how I don’t live in Florida, that sentiment is OK by me.

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