Wednesday’s political round-up

October 17, 2007

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In a special election in Massachusetts’ fifth congressional district, Nikki Tsongas, wife of the late Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, narrowly defeated Republican Jim Ogonowski, 51% to 45%. Why was the race so close in a Democratic district? Here’s some good analysis of the campaign (and here’s some more), but the long and the short of it is that Tsongas was a lackluster candidate backed by a tired political machine, while Ogonowski, an Iraq war vet who lost his brother on 9/11, ran a good race. Still, a win is a win.

* CNN: “The Iowa Republican Party will hold its caucus on Jan. 3, while the South Carolina Democratic Party will ask the Democratic National Committee to move its primary to Jan. 26, the two state parties announced Tuesday. What remains unclear is what date New Hampshire will hold its primary for both parties, and if Iowa Democrats will join their GOP colleagues on Jan. 3 or hold their caucus on another date.”

* On a related note, there are some rumors that New Hampshire is seriously looking at a December primary. (Won’t someone please stop the madness?)

* Following up on yesterday’s announcement, Bob Jones University president Bob Jones III endorsed Mitt Romney today. Jones said the endorsement “is all about beating Hillary,” and also preventing Giuliani from getting the nomination. “If it turns out to be Giuliani and Hillary, we’ve got two pro-choice candidates, and that would be a disaster,” Jones said.

* Romney also earned the backing today of former Sen. Connie Mack (R) of Florida, who remains a popular figure in the state.

* Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) endorsed Rudy Giuliani today. “The one (issue) that I wanted to hear him give me an answer and look me right in my eyes was that issue of who can I expect, what type of individual can I expect on the Supreme Court,” Perry said at a news conference with Giuliani. “He clearly said … you can look for people like Scalia and Roberts and Alito.”

* With former Gov. Mark Warner (D) looking very strong in Virginia’s Senate race, rep. Tom Davis (R), long expected to be a candidate, started backing away from the race yesterday. “There are other races; this isn’t the only shot,” said Davis. “You’ve got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don’t go to the Senate, so what?”

* Bush’s approval rating dropped to just 24% in a new Reuters/Zogby poll, which is a new low, even for Bush.

* Rep. Steve Pearce (R) has shrugged off discouragement from party leaders and will take on Rep. Heather Wilson (R) in New Mexico’s open-seat Senate race. The Democratic field is still taking shape, with Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in the race and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish being heavily pressured by national Democrats to consider a bid.

…there are some rumors that New Hampshire is seriously looking at a December primary. (Won’t someone please stop the madness?)

Not without years of psychotherapy. It’s become a national trait.

  • …51% to 45%. Why was the race so close in a Democratic district?

    A winning margin of 6 points is considered close? what was the last margin of victory in that district?

  • Can’t we bring Tom Cruise’s future crime unit in on this and just preselect a president?

  • More accurate information concerning MA-05 race coming from MA blogs. National blogs got it wrong when it comes to whether MA-05 is very liberal or not.

    http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9126

    The myth of the “underperforming” Tsongas campaign
    ,,,
    Third, as democraticavenger has helpfully and painstakingly shown, Tsongas did as well or better than Deval Patrick in almost every city and town in the district — the major exception being Dracut, Ogo’s hometown. Deval won the district 51-40, with Mihos at 7% — give some of those Mihos voters to the Republican, and you get the spitting image of what happened last night. Yet most here would agree that Deval Patrick ran an outstanding, grassroots, “people-powered” campaign — exactly what kos & co. wishes every candidate would run.

    And here for some more detailled analysis town by town.

    http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9122

  • in related news, the 2112 new hampshire primary is now scheduled for wednesday, november 5, 2008.

  • Connie Mack is popular in FL. calvin has the misfortune of living in his district. He’s not very gosh darn popular with calvin.

    calvin would also advise the gentle reader to consider looking into his recent past. The part where Mrs. Mack divorced the FL version of Sen. Allen. calvin doesn’t have any links, but suffice it to say that Mrs. Mack is probably wondering why it took her so long to pull the divorce trigger.

  • Iowa and New Hampshire must maintain their pre-eminence in the presidential selection process. The interests and concerns of Iowa (crop subsidies) and those of New Hampshire (black flies) so closely mirror those of my own state of California that I would be more than happy to have the worthy voters of Iowa and New Hampshire directly and solely elect our presidents without the muss and fuss of a general election.

  • The problem with fixing the primary system is, so far as I can see, one of those “you can’t get there from here” things. We can come up with better ideas than what we have pretty easily (take your pick: national primary, regional primaries, rotating order of state primaries), but there’s no way to decide on one of them and enforce it. So we get this race to ever-earlier primary contests with Iowa and New Hampshire leading the pack due to seniority.

    Eventually we’ll get to a pipeline approach: primaries held prior to their preceding general elections, such that we will know the nominees several elections in advance. The limiting factor here will be the inability for candidates to enter primary contests prior to their being born. Here, however, our emerging dynastic politics can help. Thus we could have Chelsea Clinton’s firstborn entered as an infant in 2012 into the 2042 race, running against Jenna Bush’s firstborn.

  • Is the victory by Tsongas a preview of the national elections? A coronation by a tired Democratic establishment of a woman who has absolutely no qualifications other than her marriage?

    If so, the Democrats will be aiming for a 51-49 percent victory. Hardly the stuff of liberal dreams.

  • The only way to stop the “me-first” madness that’s infected the primary season is to shift into a two-day model. Day One: everyone votes. It doesn’t matter what times the different states open and shutter their polling stations, because “Night One” consists of all ballot boxes being quarantined until Day Two—whereupon each and every ballot is counted, with the tallies being reported throughout the day and evening until all results are in. To assure the sanctity of the voting process, all media must be barred from the polling sites and adjacent properties; no more “exit polls” to try and influence the outcomes.

    Give the power of the ballot back to thePeople—and take it away from the talking heads and political hacks….

  • (Won’t someone please stop the madness?)

    At this rate, the primaries will creep back until they are scheduled for dates already in the past. At that point, we will automatically enter the blissful, post-primary season.

    Now, if only we could move up the date of the election and inauguration, too.

  • With regard to Bush’s approval ratings, check this graph out, which plots all polls throughout this disastrous presidency: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

    The Reuters/Zogby poll at 24% is below last month’s previous record low of 29%, while Congress’s rating is 11%.

    And yet, every Republican candidate is playing to that

  • Sorry, the rest of that comment# 13 got et up somehow.

    I just made the point that in response to this historic public disapproval of Bush’s presidency, the Republicans are simply offering more of the same, or even worse.

  • It’s hard to believe at 24%, impeachment is off the table. If Pelosi put it on the table, Congressional approval might actually go up. For krisesakes, the House isn’t getting any laws passed; legislation is either obstructed in the Senate or Vetoed by Bush. Might as wll put this time to use stuffing the Unitary Executive Genie back in the bottle and unraveling the Criminal Enterprise infesting our government.

  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approval_rating#Lowest_approval_rating:

    Gallup poll history and records for past presidents.
    Bush hasn’t slid below Nixon yet. I guess the Tom DeLay mentality has given Bush THAT much of his legacy.

    Interestingly, Bush’s DISAPPROVAL rating has topped all others!
    Bush has polarized us like no other.
    At the web link I gave, look at the pictorial graphs of each president. The yellow indicates “No opinion”.
    EVERYONE has their opinion about King George.

  • In regards to the chart mentioned in # 13, it’s interesting to note the differences between FOX and CBS. As much as 20%. From a statistical perspective it would be interesting to know the sample size, selection method, etc.

  • # 16

    I suspect the numbers would have been different if people really knew the truth about their president. The media as a whole has done a wonderful job of sugar coating his reign.

  • What would happen if there were NO primaries and just a general election with all candidates on the ballots and one runoff after that? IOW, don’t have the parties narrow the field so much on the first round but rather let the voters vote for whomever they like, regardless of party, and then a runoff of the 2-4 candidates with the most votes?

    I REALLY don’t like having only two major candidates in presidential elections. This would avoid narrowing the field so early.

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