Wednesday’s political round-up

December 14, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* SurveyUSA has published its latest 50-state poll, this time gauging support for each member of the Senate. Five of the top seven senators with the highest approval ratings are Dems, though Maine’s Olympia Snowe (R) and Susan Collins (R) lead the pack with approval ratings of 75% and 74%, respectively. The poll is probably most disappointing for Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), whose 46% disapproval rating is the highest of any incumbent seeking re-election next year.

* A new Quinnipiac poll shows New York’s big 2006 races continuing to shift away from the GOP. In the Senate race, Hillary Clinton now leads Jeanine Pirro by more than a 2-to-1 margin, ahead 62% to 30%. If Pirro quits to run for State Attorney General, she still trails the Dems in the race. The poll shows Andrew Cuomo ahead of Pirro in a hypothetical race, 49% to 32%, while Mark Green leads Pirro 43% to 35%. For what it’s worth, the New York Post reported today that Pirro will switch to the other race early in the new year.

* As for New York’s gubernatorial race, the same Quinnipiac poll shows State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) looking very strong with a 68% approval rating and big leads over all of his likely GOP rivals. The Republican who does the best in a hypothetical match-up, Tom Golisano, still trails by 38 points, 60% to 22%. As for the GOP primary, Golisano is ahead with 36%, followed by 9% for John Faso, though “undecided” is the clear winning with 42%.

* In Texas, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (R) is still vowing to take on Gov. Rick Perry (R) next year, but apparently, she’s at least considering the possibility of doing so as an independent. While Strayhorn insisted she is “a Republican candidate for governor in 2006,” she would neither confirm nor deny her interest in running as an independent or in another party. Speculation picked up recently when someone conducted a poll asking about a scenario in which Strayhorn might run as an independent. Strayhorn’s campaign has refused to comment on whether it was behind the survey.

* For nearly a decade, Dems have targeted Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) as a vulnerable incumbent in a swing Louisville-based district, but so far the party’s come up short every time. As of this week, however, Northup may face a Marine. Attorney and retired Marine Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) is apparently poised to enter the House race after receiving encouragement from his friend and fellow vet Paul Hackett. Horne, who fought in both Iraq wars, was in DC this week to talk with party leaders about the race and has begun interviewing consultants.

That link seems like a wealth of information for pollsters. For example, if the narrowest margin between approve and disapprove is an strong indicator of who is the most vulnerable, then Dems should start targeting those people. From most vulnerable to 7% difference: Conrad Burns (MT), Jim Bunning (KY), James Inhofe (OK), Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum (PA), Wayne Allard (CO), Mike DeWine (OH), Jon Kyl (AZ), Bill Frist (TN).

We shouldn’t be deterred from the fact that a lot of these guys are from red states. Remember that a lot of those states went to Clinton not too long ago and still have a lot of Dem and independent voters. And if these guys are in red states and still this weak, that should be an encouraging sign.

  • One of the things I find most interesting about the 50-state Senate survey is the composition of the top and bottom on “Net Approval Rating.” It is nice, of course, that 9 of the top 15 are Ds. But in some ways more meaningful is to look at the 6 R’s in that group.

    The top two, by a long shot, are Snowe and Collins, perhaps the two most liberal Rs in the Senate. Also in there are McCain, who is largely seen as someone not tied to the party line; Lott, who since he was thrown overboard has been entertainingly willing to buck the party; and Stevens, who is a corrupt establishment tool, unrepentant plutocrat and nepotistic, pork-barrelling, corporatist whore — but is not at all identified with the social knuckle-dragger wing of the party.

    On the other hand, Coburn, Cornyn, Frist, Santorum et al are in the bottom quarter. And these are surveys of Kansans, Texans, Oklahomans – pretty conservative survey samples.

    I think there is some reason to see some hope that the the tide is turning and progressivism is gaining some ground on fundamentalism.

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