Wednesday’s political round-up

April 12, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In the closely-watched special election in California’s 50th congressional district, [tag]Francine Busby[/tag] (D) easily came in first with 43.9% of the votes, but will now face former Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in a June 6 run-off election. (Howard Kaloogian, the one with the fake pictures of Iraq, came in a distant fourth.) Though the run-off will no doubt be close, it’s worth noting that Busby earned more votes than her three closest GOP rivals combined.

* Sen. [tag]George Allen[/tag] (R) formally kicked off his re-election effort in Virginia yesterday, but the likely presidential candidate would not promise voters that he’d serve his full term. As the AP reported, Allen said, “I’m running for re-election — just that,” outside a microbiology research center. He had avoided any mention of a presidential bid in his speech to about 100 supporters.

* Michigan’s struggling economy seems to have taken a serious toll on Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s (D) re-election prospects. After months of polls showing her ahead but vulnerable, the latest EPIC/MRA poll shows Granholm tied with Amway heir Dick DeVos (R) at 43%.

* In Texas, Houston lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky easily won the Dem nomination yesterday to take on Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in November, defeating perennial candidate Gene Kelly in a Dem primary. “I’m calling for debates right now,” Radnofsky said, saying she would like to have debates on education, health care, veteran affairs and the economy. “If we talked about the economy, we could talk about whether Senator Hutchison really brings home the bacon the way she claims … when Texas is ranked 47th in bringing home the bacon.”

* In 2008 news, the Chicago Tribune’s Jeff Zeleny reported that [tag]John McCain[/tag] has successfully “reeled in” one of Iowa’s best known Republicans to join his 2008 team. “Chuck Larson, the former chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa and a state senator from Cedar Rapids, has jumped aboard the McCain bandwagon. He will be at his side Thursday as the Arizona Republican travels to four Iowa cities, launching his effort to win over GOP activists in a state that kicks off the road to the White House.”

Unfortunately for Francine Busby, 43.9% for her translates as 56.1% who voted Republican. Since her 43.9 is higher than the Democratic registration in the district, she probably got all the coastal-Republicans (who tend to be more libertarian and “economic” Republicans) she can get. That 56.1% are the “inland Republicans,” who are primarily Marines, retired Marines, and Mormons (lots of Mormons). In other words, “true believers” when it comes to “values voting.”

I wouldn’t call her a “dead duck” or a “sacrificial lamb” – and maybe maybe the news will continue to get bad and the Marines and retired Marines – who do value their pledge to protect and defend the Constitution – will take a look at who the generals are calling out Bush (2 of 3 are Marines), and some may switch. Maybe some wives upset over their husband’s upcoming 4th Iraq deployment will decide to vote that they don’t want to show their kids daddy’s name on some damn wall 20 years from now.

  • In Michigan, DeVos has already spent $2 million on tv ads, while Granholm hasn’t spent a dime. It may be time for Granholm to start *cough* clarifying DeVos’s claims.

  • Completely different subject, but deals with Chuck Larson – former IA GOP Chair. Remember those ads running in MN stating the media was lying about the war in Iraq….all was going really well, etc? The ad featured a national guardsman who was just full of total enthusiasm for the war and the “great” progress made. No one bothered to disclose that that National Guardsman in the ad was Chuck Larson.

  • Update: Bilbray isn’t a State Sen. He’s a former Congressman from another district who lost his seat several years ago, due mostly to his up-front support of the Clinton impeachment debacle. He’s currently a lobbyist, and that along with the carpetbagging-opportunist label makes this race a lot more interesting than one might otherwise think. C’mon Francine!
    . . . jim strain in san diego.

  • Update: Bilbray isn’t a State Sen. He’s a former Congressman

    Good catch, Jim. It’s fixed.

  • The whole thrust with Busby is to see just how disaffected nominally Republican voters are at this stage of the game. Things shook out pretty much as analysts were projecting for the primary. The real test is the actual election, and it will be closely watched by all sentient life forms on both sides of the cultural divide.

    And I second Jim’s sentiment = “Go, Francine!!” 🙂

  • In Texas, Houston lawyer Barbara Ann Radnofsky easily won the Dem nomination yesterday to take on Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in November

    any indication of whether or not Hutchison is vulnerable?

  • any indication of whether or not Hutchison is vulnerable?

    By any reasonable measure, she is not. Texas is not only a very Republican state, but Hutchison is generally considered the most popular politicians in the state.

    I like Radnofsky, but I think it’s fair to call this one a long shot.

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