Wednesday’s political round-up

September 27, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A new Field Poll in California, which tends to be pretty reliable, suggests Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has widened his lead over State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D). As the race stands, the incumbent now leads 44% to 34%. The 10-point lead is Schwarzenegger’s biggest to date, and is three points higher than it was in July.

* It’s hard to believe the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race was tied in the spring. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Ed Rendell (D) beating retired football player Lynn Swann (R), 55% to 39%. Pollster Clay Richard said Rendell “remains untouchable.”

* There are two new Rasmussen polls out of Florida. The Senate race is hardly worth mentioning (Sen. Ben Bill Nelson now leads Katherine Harris 56% to 33%), but the gubernatorial race is one to watch. According to the latest numbers, state Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) now leads Rep. Jim Davis (D) by just five points, 45% to 40%.

* In Hawaii, after the GOP’s Senate candidate suffered from a serious illness, the state party announced that state Rep. Cynthia Thielen will be the Republican taking on Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) on Nov. 7.

* In Nebraska, both incumbents in the state’s two big statewide races appear safe, according to the latest Rasmussen polls. In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Dave Heineman’s (R) re-election bid couldn’t be much more secure — he now leads challenger David Hahn (D), 72% to 18%. The Senate race is more competitive, but only slightly — shows incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson (D) continues to enjoy a big lead over businessman Pete Ricketts (R), 55% to 32%.

* And in Arizona, Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) still enjoys a comfortable lead in the latest Rasmussen poll against Republican challenger Len Munsil, 56% to 38%. The state’s U.S. Senate race is slightly more interesting, but not yet competitive. The latest poll shows incumbent Sen. John Kyl (R) leading businessman Jim Pederson (D), 50% to 39%. For what it’s worth, the 11-point margin is six points smaller than it was a month ago.

In regard to the Florida race, I think you mean Sen. Bill Nelson. Ben Nelson is, as you correctly state further down, the incumbent senator from Nebraska.

  • In regard to the Florida race, I think you mean Sen. Bill Nelson.

    Damn, I hate when I do that. Thanks, it’s fixed.

  • Whatever the outcome in the Pennsylvania races for governor and senator, comparing the county by county results will be quite interesting. Where will Casey be strong and Rendell weak, and of course the flip, where will Santorum be strong and Swan weak? And where will strength and weakness be aligned by party?

    I know that Philadelphia and the surrounding counties love Rendell and hate Santorum. After the election, the state party leaderships will examine the entrails, and I know that the state and national Republicans will not be happy with the long term prospects for their party in the state. Ironically, the Republican state party chairman is from suburban Philadelphia, so defeats are bound to leave a bitter taste in his mouth–particularly because all the right-wing nonsense is driving the suburbanites to the Democratic column and the national party will keep ignoring that.

    Pennsylvania has the opportunity to tell Karl Rove: “Up yours.”

  • What about the republican outfit that just did a FL-Gov poll that shows it 50% to 40% in favor of Crist? Or Mason-Dixon that shows it at a 15 point spread. Also important to note that Davis has never broken the low-40s. Seems like a lot of blogs cherry-picked the poll info they wanted in 2004 and ended up being off in their predictions by wide margins. Lots of time left for the GOP to minimize Dem gains.

    This tighter poll from Rasmussen might also fit Stu’s concerns about polls with inflated undecideds – or it might not. In either case, it’s worth mentioning the 3 polls since they are so different.

    http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/09/growing-undecided.html

  • ***Pennsylvania has the opportunity to tell Karl Rove: “Up yours.”***
    —————————————–slip kid no more

    Not only PA, slip—it looks pretty good for Ohio to do the same!

  • Other polls show the Pederson-Kyl face off in Arizona much closer than that; the trend lines in all of the major public opinion polls show Pederson closing in on Jon Kyl and in all cases, less than half of voters are supporting Kyl. Over the last few weeks his approval ratings have dropped and a Survey USA poll recently showed Pederson trailing Kyl by just 5 points. If that doesn’t sound like a competitive race, I don’t know what is. Both campaigns have usurped the airwaves with more television commericals than Arizona has ever seen. Jon Kyl is not John McCain to Arizonans and 2006 is a completely different environment than 2004. If the National GOP loses any more respect in Arizona public opinion, Jon Kyl is going to sink with them.

  • I’ve heard that a third of Florida’s citizens handle snakes and talk in tongues–all to do with the growth of “Christian Rock.”

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