Wednesday’s political round-up

October 4, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Democratic chances of beating California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in November appear to be slowly fading away. A new San Jose State University poll shows the incumbent with a 13-point lead over Phil Angelides (D), 46% to 33%. Schwarzenegger is, oddly enough, garnering about 20% support among California Dems. “They know he’s a Republican, but they don’t see him as Bush’s evil twin,” said Phil Trounstine, who heads the San Jose State research center. “To some degree, he has neutralized his Republican partisanship.”

* Last month, a Rasmussen poll showed Charlie Crist’s (R) lead over Rep. Jim Davis (D) in Florida’s gubernatorial race narrowing to just five points. Today, a new Rasmussen poll shows Crist surging to a huge lead, 54% to 38%. The poll was taken before the Foley sex scandal broke, though it’s unclear if the controversy will affect state races.

* Speaking of Florida, the Senate race continues to be hardly worth watching. Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) now leads Rep. Katherine Harris (R), 54% to 37%. The 17-point margin is smaller than Nelson’s 23-point lead a month ago, but no one seriously expects the gap to narrow much further.

* In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court rebuffed Green Party Senate candidate Carl Romanelli’s bid to get on the November ballot for the U.S. Senate campaign, delivering another setback for Sen. Rick Santorum (R), who wanted to use Romanelli to cut into Bob Casey’s (D) support.

* And in Massachusetts, Deval Patrick (D) enjoys an almost-ridiculous lead in the state’s gubernatorial race against Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey. A new Rasmussen poll shows Patrick ahead, 57% to 24%. Independent candidate Christy Mihos garnered 9% support. If elected, Deval will be the first African-American governor in Massachusetts’ history and only the second in the United States.

Regarding the Patrick/Healey race, it really is amazing how far we’ve come. Race is simply not an issue. The issue is competence, and on that score Patrick blows Healey away.

Look into Kerry Healey’s credentials and you find a second-string researcher posing as a criminologist – which happens to be one of those titles that actually has no accepted (let alone) accredited definition. She’s done nothing but threaten to blow her husbands millions in her attempt to stay in office – but I’m guessing he’s probably vetoing that by now.

Patrick is winning on the merits. Amazing.

  • If you’re wondering how big the Democrats will win this fall, consider this: CQPolitics, an arm of Congressional Quarterly, has downgraded Colorado’s 5th Congressional District from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.

    When the 5th is merely Republican Favored, you know the GOP is in trouble nationwide.
    http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/opinion_columnists/article/0,2777,DRMN_23972_5040148,00.html

    The district will probably stay red. But this is Colorado Springs and includes five military facilities. The GOP member who vacated the seat has criticized the GOP candidate for running “one of the sleaziest, most dishonest campaigns” he’s ever seen. A quote frequently on the Rocky Mountain News web-site has the Dem challenger saying “I couldn’t pay my opponent to be this bad.”

    Oh, yeah. The key backer of the GOP candidate? Denny Hastert.

  • You have to sort of admire the flexibility Schwarzenegger has shown. When his ratings were low after his initiatives failed, he hired a Democratic chief of staff and started doing very middle-of-the-road kinds of things. Of course he probably listened to HIS wife, unlike Bush.

  • I watched last night’s MA governor debate. It’s quite remarkable, and largely due to Patrick’s incredibly pleasing demeanor – he manages to convey gravitas, good humor, and seriousness just by standing there.

    Healey, on the other hand, comes off as awkward, stiff, kind of shrill, and basically unlikeable.

    There was a local poll recently showing that the MA electorate disagreed with Patrick on a number of his positions. Unfortunately for Healey,

    Healey’s battle to close the gap between her and Patrick will be made difficult by her low personal popularity with the voters. Forty-two percent of those surveyed had an unfavorable opinion, while 40 percent viewed her favorably . By comparison, Patrick, fresh off his huge primary win on Sept. 19, received a rating of 63 percent favorable, 16 percent unfavorable.

    Patrick surely has the charisma. It remains to be seen whether he can be taken down by the mud the Healey camp is slinging around. I don’t think he can. He may have made mistakes in the past (Healey hasn’t???), but he inspires trust.

  • I realize the race for Kansas governor is all but a done deal, but Sebelius (the incumbent Democrat in a traditionally Republican state) has one of the best campaign ads I’ve ever seen.

    It’s simple, clean, and amazingly effective.

    And I really, really wish she’d run for a national office.

  • Many folks in MA have become utterly numb to state politics. The economic grind and the housing squeeze keeps everybody hunched over, just praying they don’t get hit by a meteor. In recent elections, the choice has always been “more of the same”, so voters were losing interest and hope.

    Deval is so very refreshing and sincere that people get excited when they see him talk. And when those people take their impressions on the road, it has a real impact. Aggressive, and positive, grassroots work by Deval Patrick is making the real difference.

  • If elected, Deval will be the first African-American governor in Massachusetts’ history and only the second in the United States. — CB

    I didn’t realise that. But, if true, that makes VA’s Douglas Wilder the first and only, until now? How very, very perverse that the racist South seems to have let go of its hangups years earlier than the oh-so-pure Massachussetts (and Vermont and Maine and New Hampshire)…

    Mind you, I’ve always felt that, while VA (and all South) has more racists than I feel comfortable with, some of the Northern States had plenty of *potential* ones. Just not enough real life experience. Poles of my childhood had been extremely anti-racism also when it came to blacks, but then we only had *one* black national (son of an American soldier who was passing through). But ask Poles about *Jews*…

  • “I didn’t realise that. But, if true, that makes VA’s Douglas Wilder the first and only, until now? How very, very perverse that the racist South seems to have let go of its hangups years earlier than the oh-so-pure Massachussetts (and Vermont and Maine and New Hampshire)…” – libra

    Or maybe Virginia just has a larger pool of black politicians to draw from who could be governer?

    Don’t read too much into this.

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