Wednesday’s political round-up

October 18, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* The New York Times conducted a big statewide poll in Ohio and found that the state “appears to have become hostile terrain for Republicans this year, with voters there overwhelmingly saying Democrats are more likely to help create jobs and concluding by a wide margin that Republicans in the state are more prone to political corruption than are Democrats.” According to the NYT’s poll, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) now leads Sen. Mike DeWine (R) by 14 points, 48% to 34%. In the gubernatorial race, Rep. Ted Strickland (D) leads Ken Blackwell (R) 53% to 29%.

* In Pennsylvania, a new Rasmussen poll shows the Senate race no closer than last month. Bob Casey (D) still leads Sen. Rick Santorum (R) by 13 points, 54% to 41%. When leaners are added, Casey leads by 12, 55% to 43%. Last month, Casey was ahead by the same margin, 50% to 37%, though both candidates’ numbers went up as undecideds started to make up their minds.

* A new poll conducted by Northern Arizona University suggests Sen. Jon Kyl (R) may not be as vulnerable this year as many of us had hoped. He now leads Democratic challenger Jim Pederson by 16 points, 49% to 33%. Libertarian Richard Mack is a distant third with 2% support.

* In Illinois, the latest Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) far ahead of Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka, despite the fact that the incumbent is not terribly popular with Illinois voters. Indeed, according to the Tribune, fewer than half — 47% — of Illinois Republicans say they have a favorable view of Topinka, and only 63% of Republicans said they would vote for Topinka, compared with 80% of Democrats backing Blagojevich.

* In Maryland, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley now leads Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich, 50% to 44%. When leaners are added to the mix, O’Malley lead grows to eight, 53% to 45%.

* And in Louisiana, Rep. William Jefferson (D) is running for re-election despite facing a federal bribery investigation, but his party wants nothing to do with him. The Louisiana Democratic Party has rebuffed Jefferson and endorsed state Rep. Karen Carter, one of a dozen challengers who emerged after Jefferson was caught with cash in his freezer. The State Central Committee’s 69-53 vote at a special meeting in Baton Rouge was the first time in recent memory that an incumbent had failed to win the state party’s endorsement.

I think we have Ohio. We have to stay engaged locally, but we have it.

For the Senate, it’s still MO, TN, VA and NJ. We need 3 out of these 4 for a majority.

(By the way, stupid trivia question: what happens if the Senate is 50-50 AND if Lieberman doesn’t become a Republican? Who chairs the committees then?)

  • 80 % of democrats in Illinois supporting Blagojevich? If you look at the entire state, I’d estimate at least half the dems in Illinois can’t stand him. And for myself, it will be very tempting to punch the green party candidate for governor. Read that Chicago Trib article and you will get the bigger picture of the bullshit going on in this state.

  • What happens if the Senate is 50-50 AND if Lieberman doesn’t become a Republican? Who chairs the committees then?

    This actually happened very recently. After the 2000 elections, the Senate was split, right down the middle. Daschle and Lott struck a power-sharing agreement that made Republicans committee chairs (Cheney being the 101st member of the Senate), but with equal numbers.

    Shortly thereafter, Jeffords left the GOP and Dems were in the majority for about a year and a half.

  • I’m pleased to see the Democrats have told Jeffords buh-bye. It further highlights the attitude the lads across the aisle take towards their less than ethical peers.

    Casey needs to watch his back though. Santorum might get Gandalf to open a can of whup ass on him. Or should I say flagon, since there are no cans in Middle Earth?

    2Manchu – is that some sort of man-dog reference?

  • ***Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) now leads Sen. Mike DeWine (R) by 14 points, 48% to 34%.***

    The “GOP pulls D’Whine funding” story has gained traction here; the few signs that were starting to show over the weekend are pretty much gone, and a neighbor called me today, asking about how to get a bumper sticker off. Look for peanut-butter sales to go up!

    ***In the gubernatorial race, Rep. Ted Strickland (D) leads Ken Blackwell (R) 53% to 29%.***

    You know it’s bad for “J-Ken” when a Republican hunter pins a Blackwell flyer to a straw-bale and uses it for “training the rifle-scope.”

    All in all, Republicans are going to rue the day they stole Ohio—and we’re talking serious rue-age here….

  • lou, I’m in Illinois, too, and am likewise afraid Rod is as corrupt as they come. I just happen to think Judy is worse, so I’m conflicted. I’m going to early vote this Saturday and I still haven’t made up my mind about this race.

    I do like Pat Quinn. Maybe a vote for Rod is more of a vote for Quinn. Or maybe Rich Whitney will have a great green party showing. Who knows.

  • Someone explain this one to me– Ehrlich has somewhere between a 54-60% approval rating, but he trails to O’Malley by 6 points….HUH? How many times has an incumbent Governor with an avg 55-60 point approval rating lost an election? I think the results are off–especially considering there is a lot of talk about lower turnout as a result of people being pissed from the primary election and because blacks are angry that the Dems put up 4 white guys for statewide ticket while the Reps put up 1 black man, 2 white men, and 1 white woman.

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