About a month ago, Adm. Michael Mullen, the incoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the president’s “surge” policy had a short shelf-life — troop deployments could be maintained only through April 2008. The Boston Globe reported today that the surge could last a little longer, but not much.
The Pentagon cannot sustain its current force levels in Iraq beyond next summer, effectively giving the Bush administration and the Iraqi government until the middle of 2008 to capitalize on recent security improvements before the US military must draw down its forces, according to US military officials and foreign policy analysts. […]
The practical limits on current troop deployments have led military officials and analysts to warn that there will be a window of less than 12 months for the military to show sustained, and sustainable, success — and for the Iraqi government to fashion a political settlement between warring factions.
By then, they said, the White House will have little choice but to phase down the American military commitment in Iraq.
Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, deputy commander in Iraq, told reporters it would be nearly impossible to sustain our troop presence beyond August 2008, questioning whether “there’s anybody to backfill those units” that leave Iraq at the end of the 15-month tour.
With this in mind, Slate’s Fred Kaplan explained, “The U.S. Army and Marines are simply running out of combat troops,” which leaves Bush with limited options. The administration could extend the soldiers’ tours of duty, again, which the Pentagon says is “off the table.” Bush could go to “full mobilization” of the Reserves, a first since WWII, which as Kaplan noted “would be a huge social disruption” for which the nation is unprepared. The administration could find troops in other countries willing to replace our own, but no one seems anxious to help out. Or Bush could reinstate a draft.
Given this reality, Kaplan argues, Bush should be toning down his rhetoric and lowering expectations “so that the inevitable drawdown of U.S. troops from Iraq won’t appear to be a defeat.” Instead, the White House is doing the opposite.
The long and short of it is that by next spring some of the 20 U.S. combat brigades currently in Iraq — perhaps as many as a quarter to a half of them — will be pulling out, and nobody will replace them. This is a mathematical fact, quite apart from anything to do with the upcoming election or the war’s diminishing popularity.
Whether or not you regard this fact as lamentable, President Bush only makes things worse by howling that any pullback would erode American power and embolden the terrorists. Even if his warning is true, for a president to state it so urgently, over and over and over and over, deepens the damage when the storm hits. And given that the storm is certain to hit, it’s irresponsible — it’s baffling — that he’s howling so loudly.
When some U.S. troops start coming home next year, by necessity, our enemies will crow and brag that they were responsible. There’s just no reason for our president to make their job easier.