What do you know, Iraq can get worse

Speaking in Ohio yesterday, the president boasted that “normalcy is returning back to Iraq.” In his speech, Bush used the phrase “security gains” four times, including a reference to the ongoing offensive in Basra: “This offensive builds on the security gains of the surge.”

The president kind of smirked when he said it, leading me to wonder if even he found his own rhetoric hard to believe.

This, for example, is not, or at least shouldn’t be, “normalcy” returning to Iraq.

Abu Iman barely flinched when the Iraqi Government ordered his unit of special police to move against al-Mahdi Army fighters in Basra.

His response, while swift, was not what British and US military trainers who have spent the past five years schooling the Iraqi security forces would have hoped for. He and 15 of his comrades took off their uniforms, kept their government-issued rifles and went over to the other side without a second thought.

For that matter, the NYT reported, “Violence also broke out in Kut, Hilla, Amara, Kirkuk, Baquba and other cities. In Baghdad, where explosions shook the city throughout the day, American officials said 11 rockets struck the Green Zone, killing an unidentified American government worker, the second this week…. The Iraqi government imposed a citywide curfew in Baghdad until Sunday.”

Can’t you just taste the “normalcy” returning to Iraq?

And then, of course, there’s our role in dealing with this crisis — or, at least trying to deal with the crisis — which apparently includes a far larger military role than the administration had let on.

U.S. forces in armored vehicles battled Mahdi Army fighters Thursday in Sadr City, the vast Shiite stronghold in eastern Baghdad, as an offensive to quell party-backed militias entered its third day. Iraqi army and police units appeared to be largely holding to the outskirts of the area as American troops took the lead in the fighting.

Four U.S. Stryker armored vehicles were seen in Sadr City by a Washington Post correspondent, one of them engaging Mahdi Army militiamen with heavy fire. The din of American weapons, along with the Mahdi Army’s AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades, was heard through much of the day. U.S. helicopters and drones buzzed overhead.

The clashes suggested that American forces were being drawn more deeply into a broad offensive that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, launched in the southern city of Basra on Tuesday, saying death squads, criminal gangs and rogue militias were the targets.

Not that U.S. officials are actually in a position to know what’s going on. The WaPo reported that Maliki “decided to launch the offensive without consulting his U.S. allies,” and an administration official conceded that “we can’t quite decipher” what is going on. It’s a question, he said, of “who’s got the best conspiracy” theory about why Maliki decided to act now.

How reassuring.

When the offensive began earlier this week, the administration’s talking points emphasized that Maliki was leading a U.S.-trained Iraqi Army, with little help from American troops. It was part of the broader Bush-backed spin — the president’s policy has been so successful, Iraq can now go after the Mahdi militias on its own.

Except the offensive has been a disaster, Iraqi troops are taking off their uniforms to fight the Iraqi Army, U.S. officials have to guess what’s going on, and we have the untenable political task of fighting Shiite militias while carefully not blaming Moqtada al-Sadr’s political movement, for fear of him officially calling for an end to the ceasefire.

Anyone who thought this fiasco couldn’t get worse was mistaken.

We have literally stepped between the two Shi’ia warring factions in Basra to stop their provincial civil war.

And amazingly, we seem to have taken the side of the Iranian-backed Badr Brigades against the Sadrist al-Mahdi Army.

So, why can’t we leave and let these people just get on with killing each other until they are sick of it?

The word is OIL.

  • He is always smirking. I think, either he takes nothing he says seriously or he doesn’t actually know what he is saying and is just thinking of some dirty joke someone told him while he is reading off the teleprompter.

  • An American history professor I had years ago asserted in lecture that “normalcy” was a word made up by Warren G. Harding.

    If so, what we have here is the worst president borrowing the coinage of the former worst president.

    How fitting is that?

  • Guys, did you not listen to the President when he said yesterday that this was simply a byproduct of Iraq getting better? See, things may appear to get worse because they’re actually getting better. The Iraqi people, armed to the teeth, are now free to take responsibility for their fate into their own hands and participate in the great ritual that epitomizes the essence of democracy and freedom: a fight to the death.

    A military-enforced curfew in Baghdad is a sign that things are returning to normal, just like they were before we invaded, when their fearless leader… uh.. oh wait…

  • I think that he smirks because he considers himself superior to everyone else. It’s a condescending smirk.

    I hate to be a pessimist and a cynic, but… what’s happening in Iraq probably IS the normal state of things. It will remain so until the next strongman, warlord or whatever consolidates power… like Saddam.

    Hasn’t that always been obvious?

  • Mr. Bush – Even you have to stand naked! Our troops are in the middle of violent chaos, and you call it normalcy? I didn’t know Mr. Bush was so enamored with Pres. Warren G. Harding. Mr. Bush’s foreign policy regarding Iraq and the “war on terror” is nothing more than an idiot’s folly. What me worry? Hell Yes! -Kevo

  • “The president kind of smirked when he said it, leading me to wonder if even he found his own rhetoric hard to believe”

    Come on, Steve. Brent nailed it in his post above. The asshole is ALWAYS smirking.
    Can you think of a situation when he wouldn’t smirk?

    He’ll probably walk daughter/skank Jenna down the aisle with a big smirk. (Of course, in that case it might be warrented.)

  • phoebes said:
    Come on, Steve. Brent nailed it in his post above. The asshole is ALWAYS smirking.
    Can you think of a situation when he wouldn’t smirk?

    Bush smirks when he knows he’s lying because he also knows that no one in the corporate-controlled media is going to call him on it.

    When Bush thinks he’s telling the truth — based on the twisted, upside-down reality that exists only in the minds of the Republican Koolaide drinkers — he o_ver ar_tic_u_lates everything so we poor, ignorant peasants who don’t have Harvard MBAs can understand.

  • At least for the last five years, something approaching chaos has been normal in Iraq. The last few months were pretty abnormal, with the chaos is just now returning.

  • Well, when you take the whole five years in balance, normalcy has returned.

    Here’s my humble conspiracy theory: Maliki is a Dick Cheney stooge [Hey! Wasn’t he just over there???] The “success” of the surge has led to relative quiet and the slight draw down of troops back to pre-surge levels. And the feeling among American voters that it’s OK for us to leave Iraq now.

    So, Cheney got his stooge to ramp up the bloodshed, expose more evil militants, create some more violence and put our soldiers back in harm’s way so the voters in November will feel more compelled to “stay the course.” Which means four more years! And more troops guarding the oil that only Western firms can distribute [the Western firms that are making record profits!]. And Haliburton has more blown up shit to rebuild at exorbitant prices.

    In September we’ll go from yellow to amber and in November, when Diebold announces McCain as the winner, it’ll seem perfectly plausible.

    Usually I’m not a conspiracy nut. But man, Dick Cheney scares me. And this follow-the-money trail was awfully easy to recreate.

  • What? You mean those people we bribed to quit fighting are fighting again? I’m sure that behind the scenes Bush is pondering another big loan from China, so we can solve this problem by sending some more cash. How many billions does “normalcy” cost?

  • I think Bush is sufficiently stubborn that he really believes he is right. He’s hardly alone in this – look around the right-wing blogosphere and you see those talking points getting echoed.

    The smirk is GWB’s way of trying to project his confidence that he’s right. It’s also a bit of a coverup for his nervousness. He’s not afraid he’s wrong, but he is afraid he’s going to screw up the talking points and say something stupid, so he smiles as a reflexive way to hide the fear.

    I’m waiting for someone to come out and say “the fact that this is Shia on Shia means the Iraqis have gotten beyond their sectarian divides”. It seems like the next obvious spin.

  • How many billions does “normalcy” cost?

    Could be about the same as universal health care for Americans, but then we have our priorities, right?

  • phoebes

    He’ll probably walk daughter/skank Jenna down the aisle with a big smirk. (Of course, in that case it might be warrented.)

    especially if she wears white.

  • I know there’s no accounting for taste, and also that languages are evolutionary and therefore not classifiable in terms of good nor bad. Nevertheless “normalcy” (instead of “normality”) sounds just as bad to me as the Vietnam era “abolishment” (instead of “abolition”).

    Though he didn’t invent the word, “A return to normalcy” was U.S. Presidential candidate Warren Harding’s campaign promise in the election of 1920. Maybe that’s what turns me off about the word. And it’s no stretch to think of Harding and the Shrub together, except that Harding was more competent and probably had higher morals.

  • There’s talk that this Basra offensive is a power play for Maliki – Basra is key for controlling oil exports from the south and it just won’t do that it’s a Mahdi holdout, especially with elections coming up. Nevermind the fact that Maliki wouldn’t be in power if it weren’t for support from Sadr’s side… he doesn’t like them anymore.

    Who is Iran supporting through all of this? Are we supporting the ISCI because they speak more English? Doesn’t this just seem like it’s doomed to fail?

    This sure seems like a great position we’ve gotten ourselves into. Damn.

  • Cue the choppers flying in to evacuate the Green Zone while howling mobs surround it on all sides. It’s getting ugly out there, folks.

  • Anybody else notice what’s going on in Kurdistan?

    “Large convoy of Turkish military vehicles seen heading toward border with Iraq”
    http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/27/europe/EU-GEN-Turkey-Iraq.php

    “Jitters over Syria’s Kurdish clashes”
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JC29Ak01.html

    Then I saw this a few days ago:

    “Iran shells Kurdish bases in Iraq”
    http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-kurds24mar24,1,7357610.story

    Will Iraq become the Middle East’s next Lebanon?

  • What’s scary about the continual fracturing of the Iraqi society and power structure is that the US, by supporting and propping-up the Maliki government, is on the side of a smaller and smaller minority. By not having worked harder on the diplomatic front to build coalitions in Iraq that agreed to do positive things, we are now allied with a minority group that a majority of Iraqis now despise. In order for the US to “win” anything we’ll have to quell dissent from a majority, or move to get the Maliki government out of power that then delegitimizes out “freedom agenda” even more. Bush’s diplomatic inaction snatches defeat from he jaws of victory, but then again why expect a loser to win anything?

  • OkieFromMuskogee @ 6

    but… what’s happening in Iraq probably IS the normal state of things. It will remain so until the next strongman, warlord or whatever consolidates power… like Saddam

    Hasn’t that always been obvious?

    Painfully obvious. WMDs give ’em democracy rubbish is a(nother) smokescreen. This was the guaranteed destabilizing result of removing Saddam from the face of the earth. Next step is to keep everybody on the earths crust shooting at each other while the pumping below their feet continues. Now we are left with talking points on tweaking troop levels.

    And I hear that Kalifornia/CARB is preventing alternative transportation from gaining traction (pun intended) letting the automakers off the hook on alternative automobiles (~70% of our oil consumption/addiction is for transportation), but don’t get me started.
    pluginamerica

  • Capt Kirk said: “What? You mean those people we bribed to quit fighting are fighting again? I’m sure that behind the scenes Bush is pondering another big loan from China, so we can solve this problem by sending some more cash. How many billions does “normalcy” cost?”

    No. We bribed the Sunnis in the West to stop fighting us and fight al Qaeda.

    The Shi’ia in the South are fighting because the British left Basra in their hands and they couldn’t work together.

    Nor were they paying ANY attention to the Iraqi National Government in Baghdad.

    It’s a mess.

  • If Sadr’s Mahdi Army wins out over Maliki, it will be an Iranian proxy gov’t and we can’t have that. That is probably one reason why we are getting all the anti-Iranian talking points. So, if we kill Sadr, he becomes a martyr. If we don’t fight him (and he’s immensely popular) he becomes the Ayatollah of Iraq with ties to Iran. If it all dies down, we are seen as backing an upopular gov’t. Sheesh!

    I was actually praying that Iraq truly was better, even though I suspected it wasn’t. And just when my son is going back over there in July…of course.

  • The thing to remember about Sadr is that he spent those years in Iraq while Saddam was running things, while so many of the ‘national’ leaders we support lived in exile.

    The other thing to remembe about Sadr is that he is quite open about wanting the U.S. occupation of Iraq to end.

    That, to Boy George II, is totally intolerable.

    Sadr’s is the Shi’ia militia that is LESS influenced by Iran, not more. The Badr Brigades are totally in their pockets.

    So, as Sadr and a majority of Americans want the same thing (America out of Iraq) he is really the closest ally we have in that country.

  • Re: Bent comment… “either he takes nothing he says seriously or he doesn’t actually know what he is saying and is just thinking of some dirty joke someone told him while he is reading off the teleprompter.”

    Please….the man can’t even walk and chew gum at the same time.

  • The only way to prevent the civil war is to give to these people this waht they want. If they want to have anutonomy, they should get it, if they want to be an Iranian part – it should be guaranted. Iraq is artificial country created by GB after II world war and it has no sense to kill these poor people to keep it in whole, to keep a new Husseinalike regime by the way sitting in US pockets ( it is the same thing, the only difference is that names were changed: firstly Hussein and now Maliki ) . How does it look the future of the country: civil war in the country or proamerican military regime who would jail and murder hundreds of tousends of people to keep power i country? It is the only perspective of existence of Iraq. These people did not want existence of the country in Husseins times when they had much more now and the more they do not want existence of this country in times when they have nothing ( only ruins )and their life is exposed on death practically day in day.

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