It was expected Monday morning. The morning passed? OK, Monday afternoon. No? OK, Tuesday for sure. Um, Wednesday, no doubt. Maybe Thursday?
The political world keeps looking to Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist, whom we’re all sure is definitely going to retire, waiting for word that he’s stepping down. This was supposed to be the week we finally heard the news, the White House has already started interviewing possible replacements, senators are already putting together lists, the interest groups’ ads are ready to run — all we need now is that pesky little retirement announcement to be released.
Except it hasn’t happened.
The possible retirement of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist has taken shape as a hulking storm front approaching this anxious city. It won’t rain. It won’t blow over. It’s just parked there. Rumbling.
An entire industry of activist groups is waiting to lurch into action should the ailing jurist decide to create the first Supreme Court vacancy in 11 years — as many experts had expected him to do Monday, when the high court issued its last rulings for the current session.
They all had game plans for what to do if Rehnquist announced his departure. But he didn’t, and now Washington is stuck in a heightened state of readiness. Vacation plans are in limbo. Kids have been plopped into camps. Million-dollar ad campaigns are stuck in their starting blocks.
And as if that weren’t exasperating enough, there’s a real possibility that it may not happen this year at all. Lyle Denniston, an experienced court watcher who writes for SCOTUSblog, said, “With every passing hour, it becomes clearer and clearer that nothing is going to happen.” Sean Rushton, director of the Committee for Justice and the man who is supposed to the lead the right’s fight to replace Rehnquist, added, “It makes no sense to announce at this late date. The groups that we’re working with are now moving on.”
OK, let’s assume, just for the sake of discussion, that Rehnquist throws everyone a curve ball and doesn’t step down. Then what happens?
My friend Ryan Oddey at That’s Another Fine Mess raised a very good point recently about the ever-changing political landscape and how it might affect Bush’s approach to filling a high court vacancy.
If Rehnquist decides to stick around for another year, President Bush may find an ever harder time when it comes to appointing future judges to the Supreme Court. If the current political climate stays the course, and things for Bush continue to get worse, it is likely the Democrats will pick up seats in Congress come 2006, and the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate will shrink, with an outside chance of Dems regaining the majority.
Still, with fewer Republicans in the Senate, Bush will have a tougher time putting forth any radical judges, simply because the Dems will have more seats and require fewer Republican defections when it comes to voting down a nominee. If the Dems picked up more seats, the ability for the GOP to break a filibuster would become much harder in the event the Democratic leadership decides on that course of action.
This definitely sounds right to me. Bush and the GOP not only have been working under the assumption that Rehnquist will retire; they also need Rehnquist to step down while they have 55 seats in the Senate. If he retires next year after the next Supreme Court term, and Republicans aren’t able to rush through a confirmation vote before the end of the term, Congress will take up the vacancy in 2007. If Dems make gains in ’06, as many believe they will, the White House will find it increasingly difficult to ram a rigid ideologue down the Senate’s throat.
With a 55-45 chamber, Bush doesn’t mind picking a fight. With a 51-49 chamber, it might occur to him that it’s a fight he could lose.
The AP recently noted that some court watchers have said Rehnquist “looks better than he had been, is keeping a regular schedule and, maybe most important of all, still loves his work.” Don’t be surprised if the guy decides to stick around a while longer. The weeping sound you’ll hear will be coming from the West Wing.