What to expect when you’re expecting results out of Indiana, North Carolina

May 6, 2008

In about two hours, the first set of polls will close in Indiana, with the rest closing an hour later. In three-and-a-half hours, the polls will close in North Carolina. Various exit-polling data will no doubt be circulating beforehand, and most of the numbers will no doubt be wrong.

The question, of course, is whether the race for the Democratic nomination will be any different after we know the results than it is now.

Looking at the available data, it’s clear that Hillary Clinton enjoys an edge in Indiana, while Barack Obama is favored in North Carolina. On the prior, averaging the polls together, Clinton is up by about four in Indiana (SurveyUSA, which has been pretty reliable, shows her up by 12; Zogby, which has been unreliable, shows Obama up by two). Averaging the N.C. polls together, Obama is up by about seven (his biggest lead is 10, according to PPP; his smallest lead is three, according to InsiderAdvantage).

If things go according to plan, what happens to the state of the race? Not a whole lot. If Obama wins North Carolina by a half-dozen points or so, no one will be surprised. The same goes for Clinton in Indiana. If Clinton pulls an upset and wins North Carolina, she’ll claim some major momentum. If Obama pulls an upset and wins Indiana, Clinton will struggle to continue. Barring either, not a whole lot is likely to change.

What about the race for delegated delegates? Truth be told, at a certain level, it doesn’t much matter; that race is already over — Obama’s lead is, for practical reasons, insurmountable. Regardless, North Carolina has more delegates than Indiana, and if the results are largely in line with conventional wisdom, Obama should have a net gain of a few delegates when the smoke clears. (The same goes for the popular vote, since N.C. has more voters.)

I noticed the Huffington Post’s main headline currently reads, “It’s almost over.” It could be referring to the wait for the last two big contests of the Democratic race, or it might actually refer to the notion that the Democratic race could be over tomorrow, though it’s pretty unlikely.

Is there a realistic scenario in which Clinton drops out after tonight’s results? The NYT’s Adam Nagourney considers what might happen if Obama manages to win both contests.

A double Obama victory would almost certainly mean lights out for the Clinton campaign.

“That would signal the end of the Clinton campaign,” said Jerry Meek, the chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, who has not endorsed anyone in the race. “I don’t see how she could continue.” He added, “She’d be fighting a losing battle.”

The ever-tenacious Mrs. Clinton has proven so eager to keep fighting that she might try to soldier on. It could be a tough, lonely road. Several of her advisers have said they would counsel her to quit the race if she lost both.

Even if she resisted, twin victories by Mr. Obama would go a long way to addressing concerns about the damage Mr. Wright inflicted on him, as well as his ability to “close the deal,” as Mrs. Clinton likes to say.

It is difficult to envision what her argument would be to stay in the race should that happen. More than that, Mr. Obama would no doubt encourage superdelegates, many of whom have been holding back to see how the voting plays out, to rally around him and bring the race to a close. And if there ever was a moment for the party’s big leaders to step forward, this would be it.

This analysis strikes me as correct, though given the polls, it seems more realistic to think Clinton will win by double digits than Obama ekes out an upset.

The WaPo’s Dan Balz added the latest in his “Eight Questions” series this morning — I’ve actually come to look forward to these pieces — and he notes a few angles that will be worth watching, including my personal favorite: “Will the gas tax holiday proposal help or hurt Clinton?” (I’m guessing it helps, but I hope I’m wrong.)

I’ll have a few items tonight, as results start to trickle in. Any predictions?

You know, I really can’t believe the Super Delegates are ‘waiting for Barack’. Rather, they seem to be waiting for Hillary to give them a compelling reason to go her way. I think Senator Obama tries to get every Super to endorse/commit publically as soon as he can. Senator Clinton on the other hand seems to know she can’t ask that same commitment without some momentum behind her.

Somehow, unless this is a slam dunk double for Obama, I’m sure it’s going to go on. Even if it is a double win for Clinton you can’t ask Obama to drop out after Clinton hung on for over a month.

  • Like Clubber Lang said when the press asked him if he had a prediction for his fight with Rocky Balboa – “Pain”.

  • Prediction: If Hillary should somehow lose both races, she will demand that Obama drop out.

  • I predict that Clinton will continue her drive to split the Democratic party, no matter what happens tonight.

    How’s that for a safe prediction?

  • Actually, Lance, I think they’re waiting for Hillary’s death rattle to ensure that she can’t rise from the dead and eat their brains. I think most Supers have decided to go for Obama, but need a good kick — like a decisive win for Obama today, or the end of the primaries.

  • Nothing will change. Why would it? Hillary is redefining the role of poor loser, and if she wins so much as one precinct between the two states, she would shamelessly use that a justification for carrying on the self-destructive farce. Her fall has really been sad to see.

  • “Prediction: If Hillary should somehow lose both races, she will demand that Obama drop out.”

    Well, that’s not entirely fair. She might demand that he consider serving as her veep.

  • There is no way Obama can beat McCain–the polls clearly show this. If we want a Democrat in the White House, we have to support Hillary. The Republican Machine will roll right over Obama, not because of Rev. Wright, not because of Bill Ayers, not because of Rezko, not because of his flag pin, not because of his elitist remarks, not because of his wife’s anti-american sentiment; they will roll right over him because he has been a senator for less than three years, two of which he spent selling his books and campaining. The American voters will not trust the economy and the safety of this country to someone who has no experience. We cannot rely on his judgement to appoint his advisers–look at his judgement with his reverend. Come on people, wake up!!!

  • ResumeMan, I agree, but I think they’re waiting to miniimize the fallout from the Clintons. If the super delegates made their move now the Clintons would claim they’ve cheated voters in states who haven’t yet voted. They would say Obama stole the nomination through insider manuevering (ironically the very theing they are attempting to do). By wating untill June 3rd the super delegates will leave the Clintons with no arguement. the primaries will be over, she will have lost. Florida and Michigan are really dead issues. Those delegates will be seated when there is a nominee. Even waiting untill June 3rd won’t save the Deomcrats from a clinton meltdown, but she won’t be out campaigning, and she can be ignored to an extent. the focus will become Obama vs McCain. Clinton will be a side show.

    BUT, she’s getting wackier by the day, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the super delegates made their move after tonight and ended this circus. It will depend on whether the Democratic Party thinks Clinton is doing too much damage right now.

    I don’t think they’re being indesisive or cowardly. I think they’re attempting to minimize the damage the Clintons will certainly try to inflict.

  • “The American voters will not trust the economy and the safety of this country to someone who has no experience.”

    And I don’t think the American voters can trust the economy and saftey of this country to people who have been making the decisions for decades and are the root cause of our problems any longer. It is time for a change. McCain, Clinton, they’re not that change.

  • We cannot rely on his judgement to appoint his advisers — BWeb, @8

    We can count on Clinton’s judgment, though — to fire all economists. Much more healthy for the country as a whole.

    Go, take a cold shower — might wake you up enough to make some sense.

  • “Come on people, wake up!!!”

    Unless there’s a lot of impressionable superdelegates who are still haunting the interwebs in search of a guiding principle to go by, your argument won’t help. Although I admit, it is a breathtakingly dumb one, and you get props for that.

  • And I will not trust the opinion of someone who can’t spell judgment. See BWeb at 8 above as evidence in advance that my prediction of “Pain” will come true.

  • BWeb, have you seen Obama’s numbers? The money he’s rolling in? The sheer quantity of young voters he’s bringing to the booths? Only a true, career-ending scandal – real or heavily manufactured by the right-wing spin machine – will stop Obama. That, or of course, outright theft. Neither of which I rule out. But if/when Obama gets the chance to debate McCain, it’s gonna be a sad day for the GOP. Dirty deeds and thievery will be the only way they’ll come close to winning this time.

  • See BWeb at 8 above as evidence in advance that my prediction of “Pain” will come true.

    That’s just Mary, BWeb. She’s got handles galore here, at Washington Monthly and everywhere else, I suppose.

  • I pray Hillary Clinton leaves while she can do so with some dignity. Obama won this thing fair and square and the American people have already told her so. Clinton’s “experience” is the best case for her to get out because we’re ready for a change.

  • There is no way Obama can beat McCain–the polls clearly show this.

    No. They don’t.

    Of the latest round of general election matchups, five have Obama leading McCain — AP-IPSOS has it Obama 46, McCain 42; CBS-NYTimes has it Obama 50, McCain 38; the Economist has it Obama 43-41; CNN has it Obama 49, McCain 45; NBC/WSJ has it Obama 46, McCain 43. Only three have McCain leading Obama, and always within the margin of error — USAToday/Gallup has it McCain 47, Obama 46; Rasmussen has it McCain 47, Obama 43; Fox News, McCain 46, Obama 43.

    So, by a two-to-one margin, the polls have Obama ahead. And the ones that have him trailing are statistical ties.

    So, no, the polls don’t suggest anything like what you’re saying. At all.

  • I sure am surprised that good Democrats don’t want to let this play out the way it’s supposed to. To win the nomination you must have 2025 pledged delegates. Neither will have. That leaves this whole thing up to discussion, decision making and politicing at the the Convention. The Obama supporters want to suggst that the popular vote or the “most’ delegate votes is the “winner’ and want to act like some playground kids who think it should be over and Hillary should just “go home”. Well, if they are so certain that it’s over” then why doesn’t Obama just retire to Illinois and wait for his coronation. We have a goodly number of matters to be settled-MI and FL. This fiasco was caused by the shortsightedness of the Dem leaders at the state and nat’l levels but, by no means, should it prevent those voters from being heard. That issue as well as others (electibility etc.) have to be seriously considered before either candidate is crowned. After all, the goal is to “bury the Repubs in ’08!”. Right.

  • BWebb,

    “The American voters will not trust the economy and the safety of this country to someone who has no experience.”

    Remind me again how much experience W had in 2000?

    Predictions?
    Obama wins North Carolina by 9, Clinton wins Indiana by 6.

    Neither candidate drops out and the MSM ignores McCain’s flip-flops and Hagee connection.

  • … twin victories by Mr. Obama would go a long way to addressing concerns about the damage Mr. Wright inflicted on him, as well as his ability to “close the deal,” as Mrs. Clinton likes to say.

    I thought close the deal was a troll thing.
    Had no idea it came from the filthy mouth of the head chimp over at Hillaryland…

  • I was listening to Limbaugh in the car, and he’s pretty proud of his “Operation Chaos”. He’s still sending his sheep to the polls to vote for Clinton in order to keep it going. I doubt they’re affecting who wins or loses, but I strongly suspect they’re continuing to have an impact on margins of victories.

  • I think all the remaining supers know Obama is going to win, but nobody wants to be the one who puts the nail in the coffin. As TPM has reported, they don’t want to piss off donors who are Clinton supporters, and it’s well past the time when they can make a bold statement by endorsing one or the other. At some point, when the number of supers necessary gets small enough, the avalanche will start and the slight advantage of getting on board before Obama is over the threshold will outweigh the wrath of Clinton donors and voters, but I don’t know when that is. I would have thought it would have happened already, but I guess any supers who have waited this long are by definition seriously risk-averse.

  • Wow, fillphil, there’s so much wrong with your post I don’t know where to begin.

    First, it’s 2025 delegates, not “pledged delegates.” There aren’t that many pledged ones. (But the Clinton campaigbn has just changed the goalposts here — you must not have gotten your McAullife talking points.)

    The popular vote is the metric advanced by the Clinton team, not by Obama supporters. And even then, Obama is still leading.

    Michigan and Florida are already settled. Both campaigns agreed they wouldn’t count. Only after she decided she might need those delegates did Clinton reverse course and — contradicting signed statements from her campaign and verbal statements she herself made — argue that those delegates should count.

    And you can put as many scare quotes around “most delegates” and “win” as you’d like, but those are the rules here on Planet Earth. You might as well have written a piece on baseball mocking the people who believe the team that gets the “most runs scored” will “win” the “game.”

    Obama is running by the rules and winning by the rules. If you want to find people who are acting like children, look to the Clinton campaign and their ever-changing rationales.

  • fillphil: “I sure am surprised that good Democrats don’t want to let this play out the way it’s supposed to… That leaves this whole thing up to discussion, decision making and politicing at the the Convention.”

    Would you care to point me to where in the rules it says that the superdelegates aren’t allowed to make a decision before the convention?

    The purpose of the nomination process is to win the election. Having a candidate in June campaigning against McCain makes us more likely to win the election than having things up in the air until August. And to pre-empt the obvious question of why we weren’t arguing for it to be over in, say, January, until the last primary on June 3, there are balancing factors that make it arguable that continuing the race is better for the goal.

    There is nothing that will happen between June 3 and the convention that will affect the superdelegates’ decision of who should be the nominee. They’ve had a year to get to know the candidates and learn about their positions and their politics. So there’s no positive to balance the negative, and there’s nothing keeping them from deciding but cowardice or putting self-interest above the goals of the party.

    (And to answer your other snide question, the reason not to sit at home and wait for the coronation is that the “he’s clearly going to win” is based on a sometimes implicit and often explicitly stated assumption of “based on their continuing campaigns.”)

  • Will the gas tax holiday proposal help or hurt Clinton?

    Neither. Hillary’s supporters will rally behind her plan to help the common man. Obama’s supporters will call her proposal self-serving and disingenous.

    Virtually all these people decided who to vote for months ago.

  • So “TR”: Your suggesting that all the issues I mentioned are not to be discussed and that Hillary can “change the rules”. I remind you that it makes no difference how the Clinton or Obama camps want things done, there is a lot left that is to be decided and neither they,you or anyone else can declare it a “done deal’, It’s gonna end up in the hands of the Demo leadership and that’s the way it was designed. 9 innings, 4 quarters whatever, it ain’t over.

  • As someone who hates the whole idea of “superdelegates”, I actually support the decision of supers like Russ Feingold, Jimmy Carter and Al Gore to remain uncommitted. Voters have turned out in record numbers this year and should be allowed to make the decision in this election. I don’t want a group of political insiders picking the nominee, even if they pick my candidate.

    If I were living in Montana or South Dakota, I’d want my chance to vote too. It’s only people who’ve already voted who are annoyed that this hasn’t ended yet. (Anyone who’s worried about the drawn out primary should lobby to have a shorter calendar in 2012.)

    That said fillphil, this election is over. The remaining supers are going to break largely for the winner of the pledged delegate count. If Hillary manages to crack 30% in both races today, then she has a chance. Otherwise, the numbers just don’t work.

  • No, you can discuss them all you want.

    It’s just that your talk is pointless, because there’s no chance Hillary wins the nomination. None. Zero.

    She won’t overtake Obama in the pledged delegate lead unless she wins al of the remaining contests by a 2-to-1 margin. If she finishes up tonight anywhere close to what the polls suggest — a solid win in Indiana (+6), a strong loss in NC (-10) — then she needs to win 85% of the remaining votes cast. Do you *seriously* believe that could happen?

    As long as Obama has the pledged delegate lead, the remaining superdelegates are going to stick with him. They’ve been going his way by margins of 3-1 in the last few weeks, with no signs of abating. The only switches have been from Hillary’s camp to Obama’s — never the other way around — and news reports out of several states are suggesting that several more supers will go to Obama if he still has the delegate lead by the end of the primaries. Which, again, he most assuredly will. But even if some supers decided to break with what has been the trend so far, Hillary would need 66% of the remaining supers.

    So yes, you can discuss these issues all you want. But don’t expect me to take what you say any more seriously than I would take the deranged ramblings of a street corner bum.

  • TR says: “no chance of Hillary winning the nomination!”

    Now whose comments sound like the “deranged rambling of a street corner bum”.?

    Why aren’t you on TV.? You could make millions with your predictions.

  • how many votes are coming from Republicans making mischief and voting for Hillary? Take those away and would this race be over?

    And will the superdelegates notice that the Repubs are hoping to run against Hillary, and insure that Obama gets the deserved nomination?

  • CNN.com is calling NC for Obama on the basis of exit polls alone, while 20% of IN precincts are reporting, showing Clinton with a ~15% lead, and they’re still saying it’s too close to call. Surprise landslide in NC?

  • CNN needs to get a freaking grip. What is their problem?! EXIT POLLS?!

    I’m serious. This crap has to stop.

  • exit polls are as accurate as real polls. sometimes more accurate. and less subject to fraud, electronic fraud, etc.. If the exit polls in NC show Hillary not winning by a mile in certain rural white areas then CNN knows its over for here there.

  • The hypocrisy of the Clintons will not be televised:

    http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-18805
    This is what the Clintons said about IN in 1992

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4757257&page=1
    HCR criticizes Indiana plant closings which Bill approved while in office

    http://youtube.com/watch?v=P48VQ5xOfOQ
    Hillary’s main PA cheerleader, Gov. Rendell praises Louis Farrakan

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64fDLplBfQ&feature=related
    Hillary comments, “God bless rich people…”

    Hillary: To elite to know how to use coffee machine
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C9bkuJliMY

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq8aopATYyw&NR=1
    The Shocking Video Hillary Does NOT Want You To See! (1of2)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMfUajhL24I&feature=related
    The Shocking Video Hillary Does NOT Want You To See! (2of2)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C9kP6wz5l4
    Zennie Recap on Peter Paul v. Clinton

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTyhVQKI-UY&NR=1
    Don’t Tell Everything

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPxtv6kcn7s&NR=1
    Hillary Campaign Frauds Exposed by Peter Paul on ABC 20/20 – John Stosel reporting

  • It doesn’t matter that exit polls are accurate, Steve. Reporting the results of an election is about reporting the results of an election, not about reporting polls. That means waiting until the results come in.

    These people look like idjits falling all over each other to be “first” to “call” an election, and the emphasis on who “won” without any knowledge of the actual vote unfortunately supports the silly idea that anything other than delegates matters in this race.

    I know I sound like I’m making a mountain out of a molehill here, but I have really had it with the MSM’s obsession with instant gratification at the expense of proper journalism.

  • There isn’t a hidden message in the title of this post about an addition to the Carpetbagger family, is there? :O

  • Maria, “proper journalism”. Bahahahahahaha! We were talking about CNN.

  • 8. BWeb said: There is no way Obama can beat McCain–the polls clearly show this.

    What polls have you been smoking? There have been a few outliers favoring both Clinton and Obama but the vast majority show both beating McCain and little difference between them (within the margin of error).

  • one of the things that still bothers me, and i hope it really won’t happen, is represented by the cbs reports on katie’s show tonight that the negatives of each candidate are huge. it’s a result of the long, devisive campaign, and we can only hope it changes before the general.

  • President Obama?
    It is getting close to being a reality.
    It is not over yet, and we still have a chance to see another President Clinton, although it is a slim chance.
    One thing is for sure …
    McCain has no chance.
    In fact, every Republican must be shaking in their paid for out of your pocket shoes.
    If you think the Republicans took a beating last time, just wait until November!
    The brooms are coming out again to sweep up the Republican mess.
    I am,

    George Vreeland Hill

  • Hey! Bob Cesca at HuffingtonPost stole my material. But at least he had a cool YouTube video of Clubber Lang’s prediction of pain, even if he was a few hours later than I was.

  • BWeb said:
    For the record, judgement can be spelled either way!!!!

    Sure, and HRC can change the rules as she goes, but there is only one correct answer.

  • It is indeed a sad time for United States of Africa. No I am not a racist but can not help myself from noted that americans have become willingly stupid and now Obama could be easily compared to any of the cult leaders with the stupid and blind group of Americans followers. No need to tell you how sorry Americans will be but perhaps a bit too late. By now Hamas is jumping for joyas they must know what many other observers know that America is for sell as it already sucumbs to fear not from Islam but from within the Country. Is not just politics it just simpy a dangerous movement as it is clear that whites are becoming dominated by blacks. We have Black America Months and just watch Tv ..It apperas that the only people living in U.S.A of Africa is blacks and whites , the other races are not acknowledge. U.S.A of Africa from this moment on have no right to criticize any other country’s election as this election in particular has been corrupted from the begining to make sure Obama gets the nomination.. From the begining whites as well as blacks are continuing to state that they do not want 1968 all over again if Obama does not win. The rest of the world is watching perhaps even applauding and cheering Obama but only because there would be more reason to have a greater laugh. How sad it is that until not that long ago I love U.S.A and now begining to come to the conclusion that the U.S.A that was is dying and will not longer be viewed as a powerful country but as a very pittiful one. Call me a racist if you would like I am not but Blacks do not have a sense of loyalty to no one and only to each other as long as it serves and satisfy their bitterness and ignorance that is why they will always be the most disgraceful and criminal race that have ever existed .

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