Whatever Bush is selling, people aren’t buying

A new Quinnipiac poll is out this morning, offering a pretty thorough take on how Americans perceive the president’s warrantless-search program, among other things. At this point, the clear majority of Americans are right where the Democrats are.

By a 76 – 19 percent margin, American voters say the government should continue monitoring phone calls or e-mail between suspected terrorists in other countries and people in the U.S., according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. But voters say 55 – 42 percent that the government should get court orders for this surveillance.

Voters in “purple states,” 12 states in which there was a popular vote margin of 5 percentage points or less in the 2004 Presidential election, plus Missouri, considered the most accurate barometer of Presidential voting, want wiretap warrants 57 – 39 percent.A total of 57 percent of voters are “extremely” or “quite” worried that phone and email taps without warrants could be misused to violate people’s privacy.

Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said, “Don’t turn off the wiretaps, most Americans say, but the White House ought to tell a judge first. Even red state voters, who backed President Bush in 2004, want to see a court okay for wiretaps.” Coincidentally, this is the same line Dems have been arguing since December. (Maybe the Dems’ message machine is more effective than we give them credit for. That, or common sense is just winning out.)

In fact, the Quinnipiac poll is chock full of interesting numbers — all of which should give Karl Rove heartburn.

* Approval rating — Only 36% of voters approve of the job President Bush is doing. That’s the lowest of his presidency in a Quinnipiac poll. In the competitive “purple” states, Bush is down to just 31% support.

* The war on terrorism — By a 10-point margin, 52% to 42%, Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling terrorism. This, too, is the lowest of his presidency in a Quinnipiac poll. In the competitive “purple” states, the disapproval is even stronger, 57% to 39%.

* Partisan control of Congress — By a 49%-37% margin, voters want the Democrats to win control of Congress in this year’s House and Senate elections. It’s the biggest gap in a Quinnipiac poll since Bush took office. In the competitive “purple” states, the gap leans even more in the Dems’ direction, 53% to 33%.

Now, if only the election was on March 7, instead of November 7, I’d feel a lot more confident.

(Maybe the Dems’ message machine is more effective than we give them credit for. That, or common sense is just winning out.)

talk about a tough call…hard to credit the Dems with an effective message machine, yet based on the last 3 elections (2004, 2002, 2000) its hard to credit the general public with common sense.

Given the general attitudes of the public on most public policy issues and the opposite pattern in the voting booths, I must reluctantly credit the Dem’s message machine. Please let it continue to be effective!

  • I think it’s time for the Democrats to reinvent the “soft on communism” tactic they used in 1960. Use that new “Top Ten Agenda for 2006”, which makes no mention of national security or funding for Iraq, as proof that the GOP have spit in the face of the 3,000 victims of 9/11, how they had failed to provide our troops in the field with the equipment and personnel they need to WIN the fight against the insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving the US in a more vulnerable position against terrorism, and how they are more concerned about plugging the leaks that have embarrassed this administration, while at the same time ignored the deliberate leaks (Valarie Plame leak, exposing the al Queda member working for MI5 in London) that have damaged our ability to defend our nation against threats abroad.

    This is how I get when the toddler wakes me up at 5 in the morning, and the coffee here sucks.

  • Two problems with these polls as they relate to the midterm and 2008 presidential elections. Incumbents often poll poorly against an unidentified candidate (or potential candiates) — but do better when the opponent has a name and accompanying baggage. Second, the trend is to think everyone else’s congressmen are bums — but ours are pretty good. Doesn’t mean Dems can’t pick up some seats or win in 08, just that these polls can’t be used to predict those outcomes.

  • Beep52,

    you make some good points, but how do you explain the 1994 midterm election results? I think Mr. Carpetbagger’s discussion of the increasing number of Republican incumbants decided to not seek reelection is the key here (as I think it was in 1994). As more Republicans retire, more chances for Dem pickups are available. The story on the midterm elections is by no means done.

  • Another point is that Dems need to loudly reject the strawman that we want to stop trying to find/listen to actual terrorist conversation and electronic traffic.

    We want it to be done *with oversight*, because NO PRESIDENT can be trusted to be above the law, and spy on Americans without a warrant.

    I am curious that 19% wanted wiretapping to stop altogether. Surely very few people who are serious about policy hold that position(?)

  • By a 49%-37% margin, voters want the Democrats to win control of Congress in this year’s House and Senate elections

    This is a powerful election slogan for the Dems…
    restore checks and balances in 06 ..vote democtatic

  • The key to a Democratic takeover of Congress is a tight combincation of unity and clarity. While simply “getting rid of Republicans” works for me, it won’t work overall. There needs to be a set of very specific goals and promises that voters find credible and desirable. That way, the broad and platitudinous Republican drivel will be nullified. The old reliable “gays, guns, bibles,” etc. won’t stand a chance against a specific, detailed health care plan or energy plan. It’s time Democrats step up and provide leadership. The message has to be sharp and has to be repeated in order to survive the MSM’s habit of ignoring substance.

    The vaporous “war on terror” has worked for Bush because there’s no other president to compare him to, we haven’t been attacked, and we blew up a lot of ragheads. It’s time for Democrats to clarify the WOT. Name some objectives (and call them “targets”). And continually cast the Republicans, based on 2manchu’s idea, as soft on terror.

    Bush really is sinking in the public mind. We may soon see “Don’t Blame Me…” bumperstickers. With luck, we’ll see impeachment stickers.

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