When bad focus groups generate worse ads

One of my favorite moments from the six Republican debates thus far came in May, when Mitt Romney tried to explain how he perceives threats to the U.S. from the Middle East: “This is about Shi’a and Sunni. This is about Hezbollah and Hamas and al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the worldwide jihadist effort to try and cause the collapse of all moderate Islamic governments and replace them with a caliphate. They also probably want to bring down the United States of America.”

It seemed to impress the Republican faithful — and The Note touted how remarkable the answer was — but it didn’t make a lot of sense. Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda, for example, have nothing to do with one another. The latter is a terrorist organization; the prior has renounced violent jihad and, in some countries, participated in elections. Romney was articulating a national security strategy that conflates groups, sects, and agendas that have nothing to do with one another — but he was saying it in such a way as to make it sound like he was informed.

It’s exactly this kind of thinking that led to this ad, which may very well be the single dumbest commercial of the year, at least so far. (via Matt Yglesias)

For those of you who can’t watch video clips, the ad features Romney saying the following: “It’s this century’s nightmare, Jihadism — violent radical Islamic fundamentalism. Their goal is to unite the world under a single Jihadist caliphate. To do that, they must collapse freedom-loving nations like us. As President, I’ll strengthen our intelligence services. Increase our military by at least 100,000. And monitor the calls Al-Qaeda makes into America. And we can stop and will stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. I’m Mitt Romney and I approved this message.”

It’s a bit like the debate — Romney tries to come across as knowledgeable, but ends up not making any sense at all.

I don’t doubt that the ad tested well, particularly with a conservative audience. Romney hit all the hot buttons, the ad shows him shaking hands with a soldier, and if your only outlet to the world is Fox News, the ad probably sounded quite persuasive.

But that’s exactly the problem. It’s strikingly ignorant.

I recently explained that some portions of the conservative movement are genuinely convinced that we’re this close to a global Islamic theocracy. It’s utterly absurd — as Yglesias put it, “The idea that we should be laying awake at night afraid that a group of at most several thousand people who control almost no territory or valuable military equipment might establish a universal caliphate or ‘collapse freedom loving nations like us’ is ridiculous.” And yet, that’s the basis for a campaign ad from a top-tier Republican candidate.

Indeed, notice the ad talks about terrorists “collaps[ing] freedom-loving nations like” the U.S. How is that even possible? Romney doesn’t say, but if we vote for him, he’ll prevent it. Please.

And what does this have to do with Iran? Nothing, but Iran is in the Middle East, and when trying to sucker the far-right GOP base, that’s all that matters.

As Kevin noted, there’s nothing serious about this style of campaigning: “There are no actual proposals or serious thoughts here. It’s just a puerile contest to see who can stuff the most World War IV bullets into a single 30-second spot.”

And Republicans wonder why we can’t take them seriously on national security.

Being the that ad is 100% pure horse hockey, I’m sure this question isn’t all THAT important (kinda like asking Santa if he could beat Superman in a fight), but I am AWFULLY curious as to how Mitt intends to replenish the military – PLUS AT LEAST 100,000 MORE TROOPS – at a time when the only way the military meets recruitment goals is to have ridiculously low goals to meet?

Brrr…anyone else feel a draft? I know I do. And yet, no one seems to be SAYING anything about a draft…curious, that.

  • The gap between the knowledge level, interests and concerns of the Republican base and the general public never fails to amaze and depress me. (Though I guess the optimist would look at this divide and be grateful that a majority of us are on the good side of it.)

    Reading Matt Taibbi’s political coverage in Rolling Stone, watching those debates, and hearing about moronic statements like this–I can’t bring myself to watch the ad–I can’t help but wonder how any of these candidates think they’ll be able to make the journey back from Crazy Base Land to winning a majority of votes next year, or even getting remotely close enough to steal it.

    Increasingly, it’s like the whole concept of “being taken seriously” is something they thumb their noses at. On security, economics, “social issues,” and just about everything else, they’re nowhere close to rational, relevant or even coherent.

  • Unfortunately, this is exactly the kind of schlock that a lot of Americans lap up with gusto. He’s not stupid sounding, and since they are stupid, they can’t tell that he’s full of shit. So all they have to go on is his demeanor and the press corpse.

    And of course the press corpse saves its “fact checking” for after the elections, because that’s what you do. Unless Al Gore is the target.

  • This century’s nightmare are the seven years that the world has been subjected to by the Bush Cabal and the NeoCon Supremacists.

    Willard is only doing what NeoCons do –exploiting and manipulating the fear brought about by 9/11 and prolonging the psychological trauma upon the American Public. He is vying for the Reich Wing Authoritarian vote with the world’s preeminent 9/11 Evangelist, Rudolf W. Giuliani, so he had to pack as much fear, hatred, and lust for vengeance as he could fit into 30-seconds.

    Willard is way off on the U.S. being “collapsed” (I think that this choice of the word “collapse” was deliberate to maximize 9/11-style fear) by any outside force. Just ask Abraham Lincoln:

    “All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.”

  • Willard is way off on the U.S. being “collapsed”… by any outside force.

    If it won’t even prevent the jihadi takeover, what’s the point of having a citizenry armed, by any objective measure, to the teeth?

    Target shooting? Domestic violence? Domestic race war? Wolverines?

  • Bullshit! It’s rabble-rousing at its best aimed at the lynch mob known as the right wing republican party. Thank God they are in the minority. The king of “phony-baloney” making such obviously stupid comments that should embarrass the GOP instead makes them cheer. Not an ounce of sense in the video and Mitt thinks he’s really said something. How pathetic. When will potential presidential candidates learn that we want them to do what we decide not live out some fantasy in their head as if they were a dictator. Only looney tune dead enders will think Mr. Phony-Baloney’s video has any merit at all. Sick Mitt isn’t going for the Nobel Peace prize that’s for sure.

  • “The idea that we should be laying awake at night afraid that a group of at most several thousand people who control almost no territory or valuable military equipment might establish a universal caliphate or ‘collapse freedom loving nations like us’ is ridiculous.”

    I’m sure before 9/11 if anyone had floated the notion that a small group of terrorists would hijack planes, destroy the WTC towers and kill about 3K of our citizens, it would probably be called “ ridiculous ” also. Have we forgotten? I guess some have.

    Some Republicans are in favor of strong defense and strong intelligence to preempt the sort of thing that happened on 9/11 from reoccurring. That attacked could have been stopped. Saying that there are only a few that would harm us, or saying that they really can’t harm us any way since they have no country is akin to burying your head in the sand. That’s not leadership, that’s ignorance. Just look at how 18 or so of these poor, young, terrorists used our own infrastructure against up. They hi-jacked our own planes and caused billions in damages.

    ““There are no actual proposals or serious thoughts here. It’s just a puerile contest to see who can stuff the most World War IV bullets into a single 30-second spot.””

    Let me remind you that it IS a 30-second ad. One can’t expect major intellectual discussion in such a short time frame.

  • check out this post from Bill Maher:

    Have too many Americans become gullible, ill-informed idiots who have elevated feelings over facts and replaced critical thinking with a blind sense of trust for authority? I’m not trying to be insulting here; I’m just trying to figure out Rudy Giuliani’s poll numbers.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-maher/idiocracy_b_68102.html

    and here’s what he’s talking about:

    http://worldwideweird.blogspot.com/2005/11/i-cant-believe-it-wasnt-police.html

  • ’m sure before 9/11 if anyone had floated the notion that a small group of terrorists would hijack planes, destroy the WTC towers and kill about 3K of our citizens, it would probably be called “ ridiculous ” also. Have we forgotten? I guess some have.

    or, perhaps, some never even had a clue that that exact scenario was envisioned:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Bojinka

  • Mitt Romney on Lawyers and Use of Military Force
    October 12, 2007; Page A15
    I’m disappointed The Wall Street Journal got it wrong in yesterday’s editorial “Send In the Attorneys?” The question I was asked at the Republican debate in Michigan was not when I would use military force, but rather when congressional approval would be required. What I said in response, and have said since, is that a president must act to protect the American people. As to what involvement Congress may have, that’s a matter for legal consideration.

    If there is any confusion, let me be very clear: As president I would not shrink from the use of military force when grave threats confront America. At the same time, when time and circumstances permit, I would indeed seek the involvement of Congress as required by law and the Constitution.

    Mitt Romney
    Belmont, Mass.

  • I really appreciate your understanding of those of us who can’t watch videos, i.e., readers, who read newspapers instead of watching TV news. I never watch videos in political blogs, but very few provide the translation into writing. Thanks.

  • I’m sure before 9/11 if anyone had floated the notion that a small group of terrorists would hijack planes, destroy the WTC towers and kill about 3K of our citizens, it would probably be called “ ridiculous ” also. Have we forgotten? I guess some have. – cwpete

    Nope we haven’t forgotten… But I seem to remember reading at the time that all the terrorist types were surprised that the WTC fell. So apparently completely destroying the WTC and killing 3k of our citizens wasn’t really the plan all along. It just turned out that way. But you’re right, when the notion was floated it was considered ridiculous. I think the relevant quote is “All right, you’ve covered your ass now” uttered by none other than George W. Bush…

  • JKap-

    Lincoln goes on to say in that speech: I hope I am over wary; but if I am not, there is, even now, something of ill-omen, amongst us. I mean the increasing disregard for law which pervades the country; the growing disposition to substitute the wild and furious passions, in lieu of the sober judgment of Courts; and the worse than savage mobs, for the executive ministers of justice.

    cwpete- you said:
    Some Republicans are in favor of strong defense and strong intelligence to preempt the sort of thing that happened on 9/11 from reoccurring. That attacked could have been stopped. Saying that there are only a few that would harm us, or saying that they really can’t harm us any way since they have no country is akin to burying your head in the sand. That’s not leadership, that’s ignorance. Just look at how 18 or so of these poor, young, terrorists used our own infrastructure against up. They hi-jacked our own planes and caused billions in damages.

    Yes, strong defense and strong intelligence is a good game plan, but how could that have stopped 9/11??? The terrorists were already in this country. They did not fly in from Iraq or Iran. They had been living on American soil for months and in some cases years. So building up the armed forces isn’t really going to help is it?
    Strong intelligence is needed, I will grant you that. However, the NSA spy program was already in place before Feb. 2001. That didn’t stop 9/11. Bush was warned that bin Laden was going to attack the U.S., but that warning went unheeded. So, even with strong intelligence in place, the terrorists were still able to succeed in their attack.

    And yet, even with their successful attack, were they able to ‘collapse freedom loving nations like us’? Hmmm, well…we’re still here, seven years later. Granted, our civil liberties are slowly being eroded and taken from us, so in some sense perhaps their attack may yet collapse our freedom. But I believe cooler heads will prevail in America, and the jihad that the Republicants want us to rush into to protect our Christian nation will eventually be quashed.

    Lincoln was right, only America itself can destroy America. I’m sure the neo-Cons will keep trying however.

  • You know, its bizarre when you think about it – this points out a strange Republican dichotomy – and in a way, an American one.

    They’re convinced on one hand America is absolutely perfect and can’t be beat – except for some liberal loosers and hippies. America’s military is unstoppable, our economy is perfect, we’re just fantastic.

    On the other hand, they’re absolutely terrified various rabbles of religious fanatics whose most major attack succeeded because some people didn’t pay attention to history or a memo, are going to collapse all of Western civilization. Worse, Iran may somehow, despite being under so much observation that it makes reality TV seem non-invasibe, get an actual BOMB possibly maybe one day. And if that happens the world ends.

    OK, so which is it Repulbicans? If we’re so tough, then we can laugh this off in our confidence and stop panicking. If we’re under a global threat from some cave-dwellers and a Holocaust denialist vaguely hoping for more public approval, then we’re not tough.

    Something doesn’t make sense here. There’s plenty of tesosterone and fear, but little thought.

  • Way to make friends with the Islamic people on the planet Mittens. Brilliant. Bravo.

    I’m sure that if you became president, your paranoid, ham-fisted approach to international relations and your insulting (and one assumes intentional) ignorance of a major religion will make people eager to cooperate as you keep TWAT rolling with those imaginary soldiers of yours. Though keeping anything rolling might be kind of difficult if you keep talking that way and the Saudis get pissed.

    Dipshit.

  • I don’t think that Mitt actually believes any of that bullshit he mentioned in the ad… Mitt is actually pretty smart. Having said that, it’s pretty sad that he has to lower himself to the level of the uneducated primal Republican primary voter, in order to have a shot at the nomination.

    Even if he gets the nomination, Mitt will have a hard time trying to explain to reasonable people (independents) why he did say those weird things.

  • Romney reminds me daily how right my father was fifty years ago when he explained to me that the way you understand Mormons is to remove the second “m”.

  • #15:

    “Yes, strong defense and strong intelligence is a good game plan, but how could that have stopped 9/11??? ”

    The patriot Act would have stopped 911 had it been in force at the time. People who purchase one way tickets are reviewed. There are US marshals now on every flight. Cockpit doors are sealed & locked. These terrorists were also in communication with Bin Laden, the patriot act may have monitored such calls. Also, provisions of this act would have stopped their financing. The simple fact is now we are far more vigilant preempting these attacks. I point to the fact that there have been no further attacks against us since then. No more embassy bombing, no more attacks on the USS Cole, nothing.

  • The inference that Mitt Romney cannot sustain the spending campaign assumes several items that are quite generally incorrect.

    a Mitt cannot sustain such spending because his net worth is limited.

    The plan, to make Romney President has been 10 years in the making, we told the WSJ and others back in 2002, 2003 and proved fraud issues in 2004.
    Romney (and his company, family & empire) is akin to a Star Wars type of clandestine rise to being the Emperor of the Federation.
    His net worth and controls over monetary funding is far beyond the $250 million that the press has stated. FAR BEYOND in the Billions!

    2. The purusuit for the Presidency is a goal of money and power with such life time alli’s as FMR Corp, the single largest privately held fund in America at $1.5 Trillion in holdings, owned by Ed & Abigal Johnson.

    3. Outside of the effort of run for Senator that was overcome by becoming Govenor in Maas. what items do you see that Mitt has not accomplished when he has placed HIS money on the line!

  • An enlightened, modern Caliphate might actually be a salvation for Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine’s West Bank, Egypt, and Iraq and we might also learn a thing or two from it. Since the Caliph is thought to reside in Baghdad we the USA ought to offer him our gigantic new embassy to use as his residence.

  • Well it’s a primary, of course he’s making an ad that only makes sense to FAUX “News” morons, because that who votes in the Repug primary.

    Of course, the far greater threat to our freedoms are the jihadists and religious fundamentalists who are in the White House currently, and plotting to field a third-party candidate for Preznit if flip-flop Mitt isn’t able to beat Ghouliani in the primaries.

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