It was supposed to be the ad to end the campaign. Karl Rove did focus groups on the spot and saw reactions so strong, he held it to the very end of the race so it’d have strongest impact. GOP weirdo Dick Morris said the ad “has sparked an amazing surge in Bush’s support to the point where every poll but one shows him well ahead of his Democratic rival. It perfectly captures the odd juxtaposition of seeming peace and tranquility at home and the looming danger from abroad.”
All of this because of the infamous “wolves” ad. The reality, of course, is that the ad is something of a flop. Bush is not enjoying “an amazing surge” because of it (he’s not surging at all) and voters aren’t even impressed with the spot or its message.
This week, the Today show convened a focus group of self-identified uncommitted voters from Ohio and Pennsylvania. They were shown Bush’s “wolves” ad, followed by Kerry’s “middle class squeeze” ad. The results were good news for those of us anxious for a Kerry victory.
Several voters, for example, said afterwards that the “wolves” ad actually moved them towards Kerry, not Bush. One man said, “I think it’s very sensational. And I think that they’ve tried to sensationalize the whole fear factor.” Another said the ad had a “big impact” on him — against Bush. A third said, “It’s a lie. It moves me more towards Kerry.”
Matt Lauer concluded:
“By the end, even those supporting Bush were not buying the ad.”
Kerry’s ad, meanwhile, produced a reaction in which “undecided voters moved towards John Kerry then neutral. Bush supporters responded positively to the message of a new direction.”
Probably not what Rove had in mind.