It was the first big election of 2008, and Republicans had every reason to feel pretty good about it. Illinois may be a reliably “blue” state, but its 14th congressional district — up until recently represented by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) — is considered a safe Republican seat. Not only have voters in the 14th backed Hastert by wide margins for decades, but the district backed Bush over Kerry by 11 points, and Bush over Gore by 12. (Ronald Reagan, for what it’s worth, was born in this district.)
And now, it’s represented by a Democrat.
Stunning many who considered the district west of Chicago reliably Republican territory, Bill Foster, a physicist and Democrat, won a special election on Saturday to fill the Congressional seat that J. Dennis Hastert, the former speaker of the House, held for two decades.
Mr. Foster’s success deeply disappointed Republicans, in part for its broader implications: the victory in this early race may buoy Democrats as they look ahead to a string of Republican retirements this fall.
Mr. Hastert was one of the best-known Republican members of Congress and he was elected from what was once a Republican stronghold.
With all the precincts reporting, Foster, a political novice, beat James Oberweis, a dairy company owner, 53% to 47%.
A senior Republican official last night called the loss a “disaster.” It’s an entirely reasonable description.
The Republican Party in DC and in Illinois not only expected to keep this seat with a well-known candidate — Oberweis’ business is well known locally, and he has run for statewide office twice in recent years — they needed to win to demonstrate the party’s ability to win in November. To lose in a GOP district would point to serious problems down the road.
So, the party invested heavily. It didn’t matter.
By last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee had poured $1.2 million into this race; the Democratic Congressional Committee had given more than $620,000.
In terms of national politics, Obama cut an ad for Foster, while McCain campaigned for Oberweis. Score one for Obama.
On a related note, as David Kurtz reminds us, it’s yet another setback for the National Republican Congressional Committee: “Think Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is having fun yet as chairman of the NRCC? Since taking over the NRCC after the 2006 midterms, he’s struggled to compete with the DCCC financially, faced an ugly embezzlement scandal within the NRCC, and now lost the seat held by the last Republican Speaker of the House.”
Indeed, it’s also worth remembering that the NRCC, after a year of fundraising struggles, spent 20% of its cash on hand to win this race. And lost.
Republicans entered this race with everything on their side. They spent lots of money, ran a well-known candidate, took on a Democratic rookie, all in a district that’s backed Republicans consistently for decades.
If the GOP doesn’t look at these results and feel awfully nervous, the party just isn’t paying attention.
Post Script: DDay added this gem: “Put it this way: if I told you in the middle of 2006 that Democrats would control Tom DeLay AND Dennis Hastert’s seats in Congress within two years, would you believe me?”