Why poll watching can make you dizzy (and why McCain’s +4 is dubious)

July 29, 2008

Yesterday afternoon, a Gallup tracking poll showed Barack Obama leading John McCain nationally by eight points among registered voters, 48% to 40%. A couple of hours later, a Gallup/USA Today poll showed McCain leading Obama among likely voters by four, 49% to 45%.

Both from Gallup, both taken over a similar time period, both national, and both released on the same afternoon.

Indeed, nothing seems to match up right now. The two major tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) offer different results. The two major aggregate averages (RCP and Pollster.com) also offer different results. Ezra wisely concluded, “[T]here are too many polls showing too much noise and we’re too far from the VP selections, conventions, debates, and actual voting for them to mean anything. All these polls were a big topic of discussion in the MSNBC green room a few hours ago but so far as I can tell, none of them matter, or tell us anything on their lonesome.”

I agree with this wholeheartedly. And yet, I can’t help but wonder how, exactly, Gallup/USAT found McCain ahead among likely voters, especially when the same poll found Obama ahead among registered voters. I’m sensitive about appearances here, and I’ll be careful to avoid reaching the point at which I say, “I don’t like the results of the poll, so there must be something wrong with the poll.” That way madness lies.

That said, there really is something wrong with this poll.

Republican John McCain gained ground in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that found Democrat Barack Obama’s highly publicized foreign trip has not broadened confidence in his ability to be commander of the U.S. military.

The poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed a surge since last month in likely Republican voters and suggested Obama’s trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain.

Obama had a five-point lead among likely voters a month ago; now he’s behind by four points. That should be the first clue there’s something odd going on with the poll.

As it turns out, the problem lies with the definition of “likely voter.”

By showing a lead for McCain that contradicted Gallup’s own independent tracking results, the poll prompted Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz to ask how Gallup and USA Today selected the “likely voters” who purportedly now favor the Arizona Republican. While the answer to that methodological question (and several others) remains a bit murky, USA Today’s full writeup in Tuesday’s dead-tree edition offers a few more details — and one other nugget of information that should drive skepticism of their results through the roof.

As for how “likely voters” were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked “how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall.” Fair enough. But the very next sentence raises even more questions about whether USA Today’s effort is actually a snapshot of the electorate, as its website claims, or enters the realm of forward-looking hypothesizing. Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today’s own writeup, they reveal that “McCain’s gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge.”

Abramowitz says this contradiction is the equivalent of polling malpractice. “It is simply not plausible that there would be an 11-point swing in party ID among likely voters or that there is now an even split in the likely electorate between Republicans and Democrats,” he wrote in an email to the Huffington Post.

And on MSNBC this morning, Chuck Todd sounded off on the “likely voter” results:

“[Frank] Newport, editor of Gallup, a good pollster … even has a warning in USA Today this morning that says don’t believe the likely voter, follow the registered voter model. They report it anyway. … But the point is, is that this is — a good polling organization like Gallup, okay, these guys are in control of the gold standard of polling. They can’t figure it out. I think this is a warning to everybody that polling this year is very difficult. … Everything should be taken with a grain of salt.”

First, that’s good advice. Second, it doesn’t excuse the fact that the Gallup/USAT poll featured on the front page of this morning’s USA Today is deeply flawed.

“As for how ‘likely voters’ were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked ‘how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall.’ Fair enough”

Well, if you’re going to screen voters out based on how often they voted in the past, you’re going to eliminate a higher percentage of younger voters. Which would favor Grandpa Simpson . . . .

  • It clearly is the likely voter screen, since older people are more regular voters, GOP voters have in the past been more regular voters, young people and especially newer voters are less likely to pass the screen, ditto some minorities. The more relevant measures to me are the large enthusiasm gap on the Dem side, the massive numbers of new Dem voters who are widely being reported and and the incredible Obama ground game. If this keeps up, we will have a “Dewey beats Truman” moment.

  • Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today’s own writeup, they reveal that “McCain’s gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge.”

    David Broder must be ecstatic! Apparently the electorate is now so evenly divided that even when they tell us they’re more likely to self-identify as Democrat, they’re wrong. Instead, they really split 50-50 down the middle.

    What better demonstration that the public is tired of this era of partisan wrangling and ready to support a bipartisan view that both sides are equally at fault, no matter what the facts? Even when they say they’re Democrats, they’re just wrong.

  • If this keeps up, we will have a “Dewey beats Truman” moment.

    In fairness, I believed Kerry enjoyed the same advantages in 2004, but the youth vote didn’t turn out as I’d hoped making that election close enough to steal.

    I certainly think Obama’s voters are much more enthusiastic now, but I fret that a lot can change between now and then.

  • Don’t be so concerned with polls at this point in the game — just ask Hillary. But really, the USA Today/Gallup poll basically says its a dead heat. The other Gallup poll, when you consider the 2-point margin of error (and then only with a 95% confidence level) again shows — it’s a dead heat.

    If the election were held today, the winner would be determined as much by weather as by winning campaign ads.

    Right now shouldn’t be about who’s up or who’s down a tick or two. It should be about how many people you’re registering to vote!! That’s the real road to victory.

  • Let’s not forget that these polls are done via land lines. Very few younger voters have land lines anymore and wouldn’t be polled. In addition, there’s a fair number of older voters who don’t have land lines anymore either. Including me. I’m 60 years old and gave up my land line at least 2 years ago.

  • How about some more playing with polls?

    The Minnesota result is only the beginning of what appears to be a concerted effort by CNN to “keep things interesting”. Looking at the CNN national polling map, we see Virginia identified as red, meaning McCain is winning, and the poll connected to that designation (VCU) shows McCain up by 8 points. Yet the RCP Average for Virginia reveals Obama at +1. The VCU survey cited by CNN was done on May 12-18. RCP lists no less than six polls that are more recent. Five of them give Obama the lead, while one gives McCain the lead by a single point. Clearly this is a very close race, but why did CNN feel it necessary to quote a poll that is over two months out of date and well outside the statistical norm of the other polling? Are they too lazy to have looked at other polls, or are they intentionally selecting a certain poll merely for effect?

    There’s much more tearing apart of how many of these organizations are parsing and pulling and twisting data. There were many times that they used old polling data to McCain’s benefit or to Obama’s detriment. Check out that link. I think he did a fantastic job of tearing into the numbers being presented – and being presented nightly to millions of people.

    And it’s bullshit.

  • “Likely voters” have land lines. Still keep the Obama campaign on its toes. No sleep til Brooklyn!!

  • Okie, I often believe that these polls are going back and forth so that it becomes plausible for the GOP to steal the election.

    Tin foil hat? Who knows. I thought the same thing in 2006 and they were pretty roundly trounced.

    But to trust electronic voting machines – especially with no audit trail is stupid beyond words.

  • How can USA Today be expected to sell Obama advertising space if he has a big lead?

  • amy: I’m a likely voter and I have no landline. I’m also 30. Many folks around my age range that I know do not have a landline.

    I think this issue is going to swing polls hugely — and not just for young voters. As said above, many seniors have dropped their landlines; this is a growing issue election by election, and one that no one’s really accounting for.

  • Maybe. But then again, maybe not. It’s kind of like parsing something to death to get the meaning you want out of what a politician says.

    What concerns me is how close McCain is to Obama. Obama, in any rational society, would be 25 points ahead. This would be no contest. This would be a defining moment in American politics. Republican laissez-faire government doesn’t work in America (if it would work anywhere at all), and survival of the richest is the cruelest, crudest way to organize society. It doesn’t work. Greed does not trickle down. It begets more greed. The results are in. It didn’t work and won’t work. But the American people haven’t learned the lesson. McCain shouldn’t get 30% of the vote.

    But instead, McCain is breathing down Obama’s neck when you take all the polls into account. No other way to look at it. And that’s frightening, if not terrifying. This is the only advanced nation in the world where McCain would stand a chance. Think about that.

    So I don’t discount polls that worry me. I worry, instead. I hope I’m wrong.

  • Everything should be taken with a grain of salt.”

    My brothers Oog and Ugh and I trek great distances across old lava flows, across open plains filled with giant predators (the sabre-toothed tiger is especially dangerous) to the great salt flats in order to obtain enough salt to take these polls with.

    PS Oog says don’t end a sentence with a preposition.

  • if you’re going to screen voters out based on how often they voted in the past, you’re going to eliminate a higher percentage of younger voters. Which would favor Grandpa Simpson

    You’ll also filter out the new voters of various ages Obama is bringing with him. After the primaries — some of which had turnouts that exceeded that state’s turnout in the 2004 general election, if memory serves me right — tilting in favor of “likely” voters smacks of polling malpractice intended to give the appearance of a closer race.

  • “What concerns me is how close McCain is to Obama. Obama, in any rational society, would be 25 points ahead. This would be no contest. This would be a defining moment in American politics. Republican laissez-faire government doesn’t work in America (if it would work anywhere at all), and survival of the richest is the cruelest, crudest way to organize society. It doesn’t work. Greed does not trickle down. It begets more greed. The results are in. It didn’t work and won’t work. But the American people haven’t learned the lesson. McCain shouldn’t get 30% of the vote.”

    Lol idealist eutopia at its best. Not only is your opinion right for yourself, the people that don’t believe in it are stupid for not seeing the light. Do you lefties even realize you’ve become just as bad as religious conservatives? Faith based, intolerant and unquestionable.

  • Never mind the fact that the election is not won by the national popular vote but by state awarded electoral votes…

    …so in short…

    they are measuring the wrong thing and doing it wrong…

    …it’s all about keeping it simple for the population at large…

    …yes, only a few of us actually look at polls on a state basis and aggregate electoral votes…

  • As a person who lives in another country , one with an actual free press that is not beholding to Corporations and, thus, a media who whose obvious bias and agendas are for those Corporations, including ‘polls’, I find your media an absolute farce at best, and a criminal enterprise at worst. The job of any media in any country is to objectively report facts so that the people living in whatever country can them make choices and determinations based on those facts. When you have a media who primary agenda is to make ‘profits’ for the Corporations themselves you then create a media that lies, deceives, manipulates, and creates propaganda in order to serve the interests of the Corporations themselves. The ‘end justifies the means’ mentality. This is why your country went from being one of the most admired in the world for many, many years to one of the most hated and feared: a laughingstock of stupidity. And that happened once Bush was installed as your president. Once that happened you country became a fascist state: the melding of the Corporations with the government in which the government does the bidding of the Corporations themselves. This is what Hitler did, and it is what Mussolini did. It is what Putin is doing now. China is the most gross example of course. This is the company that your country now keeps. The whole world wants Obama to be the President of your country .. the whole world because of what he represents, of who he is. This is why there were 200,000 people in Berlin. He wants to make American what is always has been starting with a social system that is fair for all. And yet in your own country you have a Corporate media that is doing all that it can to defeat him because of their own interests: money/ profits equaling millionaire ‘journalists’ themselves. You pay these idiots enough and they will all become ‘dancing monkeys’ at the end of a line attached to the organ machine, the Corporations themselves playing the music. As a result, sadly and pathetically, you have something like McCain , who is the very embodiment of Corporate interests, a man who should actually be in DEPENDS and given given memory pills to help him keep one sentence actually connected to another in a rationale way , being protected by your Corporate media so that they can do all they can to get him installed as your next president. This is what the once great country called America has come too: a fascist state who wants to dominate the world for it’s own interests, a country in which the rich get richer, the poor ever more poor, the middle class subsidizing each and dying as a result, and a Corporate media that lies to you in order to make it all happen.

  • So Blue are you from one of the “progressive” European countries that was saved by Ireland from having your country’s sovereign rights taken away? I love how Europeans talk about America and yet their leadership is bypassing the people to take away their rights to roll up power to the EU government because when put to the voters like a couple years ago it won’t fly.

  • Wrong Cryos .. I live in Denmark … where the media is the most free in the world … and, you, Cryos , like many of your right wing mindset, take different facts that are not connected at all, then connect them to make a ‘story’ to justify your underlying stupidity and ignorance so as to avoid what someone is actually talking about.

  • Lol Blue then you are from a country whose leadership bypassed its voters to lose their sovereignty to the EU. And Blue you sound about as intolerant as a lot of lefties in the US so it goes to show that free media doesn’t equal tolerance. I understand what you are talking about but I don’t believe in socialism so I can call your socialism ignorance too as you will increasingly see over the next few years. We’ll see how your society handles it when you have to deal with more of the problems like the US has when the EU forces lower standard of living workers into your society.

    Good luck also with your country starting to reap the “benefits” of your socialism as you will be forced to reduce immigration because of the influx of intolerant muslims sucking off your society. In addition watch your free press start to dry up as the muslims take it away from you like indicated by the shift in the policy on the cartoons lately. In a few years when you have a larger base of freeloaders we’ll see how supportive you are of socialism as your standard of living drops to the floor to support people that don’t want to work hard and pump out kids. The US might have problems but the socialist euro countries are going to get hit hard too.

  • I recall the night Bill Clinton won in 1998. Because I had been living in a Republican stronghold I was sequestered away in my office all night working away designing business cards and ignoring the TV and had the radio playing a college station that had no news or commercials. I was honestly expecting the second term of DaddyBush to greet me when I went home. At the end of another nameless blues song, the DJ said simply, “Say Goodnight, George.” And then on with another song.

    I have a confidence this time that I will have the same smile I got right then again on November 4, 2008, at long last. And I wouldn’t call myself young, I have a landline but I don’t answer strange numbers, I’m just very very likely to vote.

  • It’s inevitable that at some point a poll here or there will show McCain. Rarely does a candidate go from May till election day and not have a single poll show the other guy ahead at some point. It’s really no big deal.

    I came across a poll from newsweek taken a bit after the Republican convention in 1996 that showed Clinton and Dole Tied. Obviously that was laughable. Point is a poll here or there showing the other guy ahead invariably happens. No real reason for concern.

  • PS, blue kicks ass. Cryos, must be one of those whiners that Phil Gramm was talking about.

  • Blue’s posting was spot on. Kind of harsh, sure. And awkward to read without line breaks, and because, well, I’m an American. But it was spot on none-the-less. Thanks, Blue.

  • I’ve conducted my own very scientific poll. At home in the city, walking through the neighborhood, shopping downtown, driving to the suburbs for wor, going to the far suburns to visit my sister….not one McCain bumper sticker anywhere. Not one. I don’t hear anyone, anywhere, mention his name. But everywhere I go I see Obama bumper stickers, t shirts, lawn signs. I’m finding these polls to be alittle suspicious. He draws gigantic crowds in the US and abroad. He’s getting the star treatment from the celebrity press. World leaders are lining up to meet him.

    CBS edited out John MCCain’s disastrous answer in Katies’ interview and dubbed in a more flattering answer and sold it as the real deal. I don’t trust any of this to be honest. It doesn’t make sence.

    Call me a kook, but it just smells bad.

  • You’ll also filter out the new voters of various ages Obama is bringing with him. — Gregory, @16

    I can confirm that, from my stint at the county fair, shilling for Dems, where we also offered voter registration help. We had people who weren’t all that young — mid-to-late twenties – who hadn’t bothered to register to vote before, but were suddenly swept up in the general enthusiasm. And we had people — in their 30ties and 40ties — who had voted before, but not in the past 2-3 elections. Which meant they’d have been removed from the rolls and had to re-register.

    My feeling is, they’ll come and vote; people who actively make an effort to register are more likely to follow through and show up at the polls than those who’d been nagged into registering. But they’d have been off the radar for pollsters. And I think they’ll vote Democratic, too, since they didn’t have to choose our booth to do it — the Marines were registering in the booth on our right, a religious booth was registering on our left and the Repubs were registering to the left of the religious. So there were lots of us and people could choose their own level of comfort.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PS Oog says don’t end a sentence with a preposition. — Dale, @14

    The way I was taught that principle was: prepositions are not to end the sentence with.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Cryos, must be one of those whiners that Phil Gramm was talking about. — Captain Kirk, @27

    Anyone who *chooses* to start his name with “cry” has gone past simple whining long ago; it’s boo-hoo all the time now.

  • Hey Cryos:

    You are from a country that has a monarch. And you have the nerve to question our government. A parliamentary system doesn’t even directly elect a president – at least not one that has any power. Your Prime Minister is elected by a negotiated alliance not by the people of your country.

    You live in one of the most homogeneous countries in the world and can not be considered one of the most tolerant if you don’t have anyone of which you need to be tolerant.

    We are not afraid of immigration to our country. Our country was built on immigration and we highly value legal immigration to our country. We welcome Muslims or any other religion without the racism and bigotry that you are spouting.

    Your GDP is smaller than the state of North Carolina. You are ranked 28th in the world barely ahead of Iran and behind all those countries you dislike in the EU, yet you are a part of the EU and you have already abdicated your own sovereignty. You are almost a third world country. No wonder you are fearful of global corporations.

    If it wasn’t for the United States you would be speaking German. And today instead of speaking your native language you are speaking English. Well if your country is so great, go speak your own obscure language on your own frigid, dark little island north of mainland Europe.

    What is your country known for except Hans Christian Andersen? What contribution in the modern era has your country added to the world? Do you have to go back to the Vikings to find something of which to be proud?

    I am glad that you like Obama, but you are the reason that he should not have given a campaign speech in Germany. You are not an American and you don’t get a vote in our election. So go pay homage to your king and talk amongst yourselves within your homogeneous intolerant society. As an American, I reserve the right to criticize George Bush but you are not an American and you don’t have that right. I don’t talk about your meaningless King or your irrelevant Prime Minister.

    If you don’t like America and Americans because of our foreign policy well that is just too bad and if you don’t like what we do within our country then you don’t have to live here. You can’t call us names or criticize us just because you have gotten too comfortable with Americans and their inalienable right to criticize ourselves. So do the right thing and apologize and mind your own business.

    Maybe I sound a little cranky and that is because I am Cranky! I am a Cranky American Voter!

    The Cranky Voter

  • The biggest problem with these polls is that they are worthless when predicting the election in November. People change opinions all the time and when your this far out, anything can happen. Thats why I like the Pew polls because they actually measure factors that can be used to possibly predict whats going to happen in November. Popularity polls almost never stay the same.

  • Hey, Cranky, @31,

    Not only are you cranky, but you’re confused as well. That, or else your reading comprehension is below par. Cry-out-so-loud is not the one who’s in the country you, personally, have liberated from the Germans…

  • All of the polls are potentially highly biased depending on the sample. McCain is being aided by the conservative media in this country and the USAToday/Gallup poll is a good example of their capacity to spin the news in his favor when he desperately needs a leg up. . Nevertheless, is refreshing to have someone like Obama on the political front who has the native intelligence to meet heads of state with grace while abroad, and while at home discuss the economy in detail with some of the most accomplished leaders in the field. McCain has so far shown himself to be much too addled to speak with clarity on any subject including his favorite topic “The Surge” which he seems to have invented. The CBS cover-up of McCain’s lapses concerning the Surge during the Couric interview is another glaring example of the tremendous anti-Obama bias. The economy is well beyond McCain’s capacity to comprehend. After nearly 8 years of reckless and mindless Bushism, the prospect of having another intellectual lightweight like McCain in the White House is chilling to say the least. However, in a country as anti-intellectual as the United States, Obama’s brains may in fact be a liability. Finally, the corporate media was in large part responsible for the success Bush had in the run op to the Iraq War. If they continue to shield from the voters a clear view of McCain’s doddering state they may be responsible for the further degradation of this nation.

  • Anyone who *chooses* to start his name with “cry” has gone past simple whining long ago; it’s boo-hoo all the time now.

    🙂

    Don’t play The Cryos Game, it ends with an unpleasant surprise.

  • Well, the polls might be accurate. The Obama campaign is pathetic. Tonight on the news hour Judy Woodruff interviewed a McCain spokesperson and an Obama spokesguy on the economy. It was a travesty. The McCain woman, a beautiful blond Stepford Wife type, like Cindy McCain, peddled unbelievable McCain economic talking points which any fool could see is pure bullshit. But the Obama guy, was even worse. He acted like he had just finished a cheeseburger and was interrupted burping, then gave some supercilious answer that made no more sense than the Stepford Wife. He was a complete nerd, and not in the good sense. Earlier we had a shot of McCain talking to an audience and ragging on Obama for his opposition to oil drilling etc and getting applause lines. Then we cut to Obama meeting with all the economic heavyweights: Bernanke, Paulson, Rubin etc. Afterward he made a grave statement about the state of the economy that might have aroused a snail but certainly with no fire.

    The Obama campaign is turning Barak into Thomas Dewey and McCain is grabbing the role of Harry Truman. This is a travesty. Where is the populist fire? Why doesn’t Obama point out that he’s the standard bearer of the Democratic Party: the party of FDR that gave us Social Security. Of Lyndon Johnson that gave us Medicare. Of Bill Clinton that gave us unparalleled prosperity and a balanced budget. McCain represents the Party that gave us Herbert Hoover and George Bush. Is this so hard to do? I can see it coming. Obama and his campaign are going to blow this election when any jerk of the street would be better than the odious John McCain. And I’ve been around. I first voted for President in 1960. Be prepared for another four years of disaster.

  • Now that it is official that the media is pro McCain, perhaps we can all see what they are up to – translate ‘over confident’ to uppity, and so on, on Scarbrough this morning they were laughing about an anti Obama video, in their minds because it was funny. They could have shown a far funnier one that is on the internet – re the commander in chief test, but they chose not to.Even the fact check website refutes the McCain ad about Obama visiting the troops, the media know it is not true, but they still keep pushing it. There is a petition on the website ‘Media Matters” to try to force the media to be more honest. Please sign it!

  • You modern liberal Obama supporters prove my point. A bunch of idealist based, name calling, little brats living in mommy’s basement talking about subjects you do not have any sort of handle on. Your simplistic conspiracy theories, idealistic statements with no logic or fact to support them and accusations just make you look childish and naive to anyone other than religious conservatives.

    It’s sad modern liberals have adopted idealist eutopian faith based religion as your primary argument. Modern liberals now rival religious conservatives for ignorance based on faith resorting to name calling, deflection, etc when your policies can’t explain reality. I don’t agree with “classic liberal” idealogy but can respect it since classic liberals retain the things modern liberals have lost; tolerance, respect, logic based reasoning and the ability to see multifaceted issues with the good and bad on both sides.

    I’m the whiner? Lmao modern day spoiled liberals who think a breathing human being has the “right to everything” are the ones incessantly whining when the reality of the world doesn’t meet their narrow misguided view of “how things should be.” Just as I dislike being more conservative to moderate and dealing with neo-cons and religious conservatives in my party I feel sorry for the real liberals dealing with this influx of clueless modern liberals.

  • To the people calling my posts “racist, bigoted”, etc go look at what is happening in Scandanavian countries and tell me I’m wrong. Look at how Scandanavian countries’ are having to back off of free press with the Mohammed cartoons and are running into immigration problems and starting to have to cut their benefits. Cranky is right about their homogenous population but they are now dealing with the issues of integration and multiculturalism and only time will tell how it works out imo. Even blue I bet would have to admit to this

    If you are going to criticize something at least have a clue what you are talking about. I guess with idealist eutopia though the facts and reality are just pesky roadblocks to what really matters; blind faith to eutopia. I have a couple of moderate muslim friends who don’t agree or like the “extremism” that is becoming a bigger and bigger majority of muslims as they feel it gives htem a bad name.

    France is another example of failing socialism both from the perspective muslims in France are trying to enact sharia law and France is having to overhaul its overly socialist labor policies as their labor market is becoming more and more complacent and less and less productive and competitive.

    Finally wow to modern liberals’ gullibility to subscribe fully to any conspiracy theory as long as it involves republicans, corporations, facism or any number of buzz words that their masters give to them. Please do yourselves a favor and look into the reality of the world and don’t subscribe to empty rhetoric about “republicans are bad and are tied in with Big Business.” pushed by socialists with financial support behind foreign corporations and competitors. Both parties are sold out to China and if you believe the democrats are squeaky clean and are really interested in learning the truth not blindly believing liberal talking points start looking into issues related to things like this. Please start thinking for yourself again like classic liberals do.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_campaign_finance_controversy

    Both political parties are selling the clothes on your back to distribute to foreign countries and corporations.

  • So, the democratic mutual admiration society, i.e. his highness, Barack Hussein Obama and his democratic cronies met behind closed doors … and, then upon leaving the meeting, graced us with glowing reviews of Obama’s humility and his inevitability to win in November. Then, for the umpteenth time, Obama told us how his 6 countries in 9 days photo op, proved how he is now a qualified expert in foreign policy. Then, he refused to acknowledge that the surge worked. Yes … I would call Obama a presumptuous arrogant empty suit, who is being packaged and agressively marketed to the American people. What a grand deception. I urge all Americans … if you really love this country, and you don’t want to see it turn into a third world country … make sure you … and everyone you know, vote for Senator John McCain in November!!!

  • Polls are nothing more than influence peddling for the saps who can’t think for themselves.
    “9 out of 10 dentist say brand x is the best.”

  • “This is why there were 200,000 people in Berlin.”

    I can’t help but comment on this also. Both in Berlin and Oregon (not sure if anywhere else) there were free rock concerts at the same location as the Obama speeches.

    If the press is so in the tank for McCain not Obama wouldn’t the media just simply mention it instead of conveniently omitting it? It couldn’t be considered bias since it is a simple fact. The fact I only knew this after looking at some blogs is interesting in my opinion.

  • We would have a lot less problems in America if we just beheaded all the liberals.

  • No poll will ever be accurate unless the pollsters find a way to solicit the opinions of the younger generation who are not only running this campaign so far but who use cell phones and NOT land lines. Pollsters who only contact folks using land lines are getting us older generation die hard people and not the youth. Young folks for the most part have not used land lines unless they are visiting mom or dad! Get with it pollsters or your data becomes inaccurate at best, dizzying in the least and misleading at the worst!

  • Thanks Caleb. I was curious about the assertion above but hadn’t looked it up yet or tried to find links.

  • Cryos — I am not dwelling in my Mother’s basement, I am the managing partner of a law firm which specializes in commercial real estate development, mostly for developers. Many of my clients are right wing — lifelong supporters of the GOP and big fans of Bush/Cheney until about 1-2 years ago, when even they realized what an idiot and impetent Bush is, and what an evil MoFo Cheney is. Some of my clients, believe it or not, are democrats even though they are in the top tax bracket — oddly enough, love of country transcends personal gain in their minds, so they can reconcile supporting Democrats even though they make a ton of money. left wing. My firm has 21 employees, and provides health insurance, a 401K and other benefits to every single one of them.

    The reality is that Democrats and Obama supporters. like me, work every bit as hard or harder than you or any other right wing nut that shits on us for being lazy, or elite, or whatever, and I feel the effects of the economy (and the consequences of right wing policies, both to my clients and my own business) every single day. Not one of my clients wouldn’t trade the last 8 years for the 8 years in which Clinton was President, even if they reviled him (for all the reasons wingnuts have always reviled the Clintons). They made much more money from 1992 – 2000 than they have made since 2000. And they are all facing seriously bad times for the forseeable future. All of which is due to the corproratist rape of the treasury that Dick Cheney and his chimp, Dubya, have perpetrated on the American people.

    Now McCain once sounded like a person who spoke his mind and was not afraid to part company with the right in order to get things done . . . until 9/11, and then the start of his campaign for President in 2005, at which point he sold his soul — any semblence of independence or decency — to get the GOP nomination. Now he is even more of a corporate GOP lackey than he has ever been – – he has signed up for the whole GOP corporatist shebang — privatization, the war (which facilittes corporate privatization), off-shore drilling, tax cuts for the rich, fiscal irresponsibility, you name it. He has voted with Bush 95% of the time, and he is now committed to continuing the policies of the Bush administration alomst across the board. Any rhetoric to the contrary is election year politics, and were the media not busy blowing him, and the corporatist world he represents (as Blue so aptly pointed out), they would out him on this stuff and let everybody know what a hypocrite, corporatist he has morphed into to shore up his GOP support. But that won’t happen, because the corporate masters they serve have a different agenda. So McCain flips and flops over and over — and says he will run a positive campiagn, but then puts out one false negative ad after another — with little or no consequence, because those who control the media want this to be close, and they would like the GOP to win — that’s where their bread is buttered, that’s where they get their ad revenues from.

    And then there’s Obama. You think we are drinking kool aid, or worshipping a messianic figure because of weakness or stupidity, but really, all we are doing is admiring somebody who is brilliantly intelligent, calm and cool under pressure, and who articulates a vision that we share enthusiastically. Put an end to the poilarity and start getting something done. Put an end to the funnel of corruption and corporate welfare that Bush created between the US Treasury and the Military Industrial Complex and start exercising fiscal responsibility and make government work again. End this stupid freaking war in Iraq, which never should have been launched, and which is a quagmire without end unless and until we let the Iraqi’s know that we are redeploying elsewhere, and pull out. Pay attention to global warming, and alternative energy — build new infrastructure and reignite teh economyu solving our energy and environmental problems at the same time. Adopt universal heath coverage so that the middle class is not always on the edge of financial ruin. Stop politicizing the Justice Department and other branches of government. Respect the separation of church and state. And so on.

    Obama is somebody who is entirely self-made, who has accompolished more in 47 years than most do in a lifetime, who is disciplined, cool under pressure, and open to both sides of an issue — who will not demonize his opponents or scare the public into making stupid choices.

    Your 8 year reign will be over in a few months. Not a moment too soon. And people like you will fade itnot the irrelevency you have long deserve..

    By contrast

  • By the way, Cryos was not questioning our government, he was questioning our media (and pointing out that our media is a tool of the corporate masters who pay the advertising revenue). The wingnuts here are apparently too stupid or too craven to understand the difference.

    I for one am sick of asshole wingnuts who attack foreignors on the theory that our Country’s shit doesn’t stink. We are soiling the world, and the Bush years are a stain — a disgraceful stain — on America’s international reputation that will take years (or decades) to repair — unless we elect someone like Obama who is respected and admired by all but a few cave dwellers here who fancy themselves teh masters of the universe. If this country is so great, how is that we re-elected the Chimp in 2004 knowing what a lying sack of shit he was? Are American’s that stupid and ill-informed? He cheated his way into the Presidency in 2000, but Americans actually gave him another 4 years knowing how incompetent he is. I blame the media, and the vanity of assholes who wear the flag on their sleeve but wouldn’t know the Bill of Rights if it bit them in the ass. Pathetic.

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