Now that the election is over, pollsters are conducting far fewer surveys and the polls themselves are generating far less interest. Nevertheless, the numbers still matter and, at this point, they’re definitely tilting against Bush.
About a month ago, Salon’s Eric Boehlert noted that Bush’s poll numbers were not just low, they were the lowest ever for a president who had just won a second term. Since modern-day presidential polling began, presidents routinely received a post-election “bounce” and head into their second inauguration with fairly strong support. Bush, on the other hand, has seen his popularity slip since the election.
Consider the latest AP data, by way of Ruy Teixeira:
Bush’s approval rating is at 49 percent in the AP poll, with 49 percent disapproving. His job approval is in the high 40s in several other recent polls — as low as any job approval rating for a re-elected president at the start of the second term in more than 50 years.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton had job approval ratings of around 60 percent just before their inauguration for a second term, according to Gallup polls.
President Nixon’s approval was in the 60s right after his 1972 re-election, slid to about 50 percent right before his inauguration and then moved back over 60 percent. President Eisenhower’s job approval was in the low 70s just before his second inauguration in 1957.
It’s not just the AP data; Bush is struggling to get to 50% approval in a wide variety of national polls.
Congressional Dems are feeling emboldened.
For a variety of reasons, Dems were far less willing to take on Bush when his approval ratings were high. That isn’t a problem now, as Bush’s job approval numbers are wholly unimpressive.
In fact, it’s not just Bush’s approval rating that’s on the decline. As Teixeira explained:
It’s worth highlighting the rest of Bush’s underwhelming approval ratings as well. Even his rating in his best area, “foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism” is a mere 50 percent approval/48 percent disapproval. His rating on the economy is 47/51; his rating on Iraq is 44/54; and his rating on “domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy” is 43/56.
Even Gallup offers the White House discouraging news. Bush’s Gallup numbers on Iraq, for example, which used to be one of his primary strengths, are 41/52. Less than one-in-five agree with Bush’s assertion that the Social Security system is currently in “crisis.”
This is starting to make a big difference on the Hill.
“What’s been clear and somewhat surprising in the weeks after the election is that Bush got virtually no bounce and no honeymoon from his victory,” said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. “What seems pretty clear is that there was nothing particularly healing about Bush’s victory.”
That has emboldened Democrats to resist, and they see attractive targets on the horizon. “If you look at the major priorities that Bush has outlined for a second term, they all create significant opportunities for Democrats,” said Mark Mellman, who was Kerry’s campaign pollster.
Bush’s Social Security proposal that would allow younger workers to invest some of their contributions in personal savings accounts has further served to unite Democrats across the ideological spectrum — from the liberal Campaign for America’s Future to two centrist groups, the Democratic Leadership Council and the newly formed Third Way.
“I don’t think Democrats are frightened of him,” said DLC President Bruce Reed. “They’re frightened of what he wants to do but not frightened of what he can do to them, the way many were on tax cuts.”
While I’d argue the Dems shouldn’t have been frightened of him to begin with — Clinton’s approval rating was near 70 when the GOP impeached him — it’s encouraging to see the Dems feeling some sense of empowerment and hope. It’s tough being in this deep a hole (an even smaller minority in the House and Senate than the last Congress) and the Republicans are pushing a daunting agenda (phasing out Social Security, more tax cuts for millionaires, sweeping budget cuts for working families), but if these polls give Dems the backbone they need to mount a credible opposition, so be it.