Bush will deliver a nationally televised address tonight, on the first anniversary of Iraq’s alleged sovereignty, hoping to help turn the rhetorical tide regarding the war. As is always the case, the stagecraft has been carefully planned — Bush will speak at Fort Bragg, N.C., home of the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division,, using soldiers as background props.
It’s worth noting, however, that Bush goes into tonight’s address having lost a great deal of support. And since tonight’s speech is about changing the rhetoric, and not the policy, one wonders if the president really understands the level of concern about the war nationwide.
Indeed, two new polls paint a startling picture. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll, for example, shows support dropping dramatically for the president.
A sense of obligation balances negative public views on Iraq: Despite broad concerns and sharp criticism of the administration’s performance, nearly six in 10 Americans say U.S. forces should remain in place until civil order has been restored there.
That expression of resolve works to President Bush’s advantage as he prepares to address the nation on Iraq, as does a slight improvement in some bottom-line measures. But steep challenges remain: Recriminations against his administration have jumped, with a majority for the first time saying it “intentionally misled” the public in going to war, and nearly three-quarters saying it underestimated the challenges involved.
A record 57 percent also now say the administration intentionally exaggerated its evidence that pre-war Iraq possessed nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. Views such as these cut to the administration’s basic credibility and competence, vital commodities as Bush tries to turn public opinion in a more favorable direction. He speaks tomorrow night, the first anniversary of the handover to an interim Iraqi government.
Bush’s overall position isn’t enviable. Not only do 51 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance, a record 40 percent disapprove “strongly” (compared with 27 percent who strongly approve). That exceeds career-high strong disapproval for his two immediate predecessors, President Clinton (33 percent strongly disapproved in fall 1994, shortly before his party lost control of Congress) and Bush’s father (34 percent in summer 1992, shortly before he lost re-election).
On Iraq specifically, 56 percent disapprove of Bush’s work, and 44 percent disapprove strongly. (Strong disapprovers outnumber strong approvers by 19 points.) A majority hasn’t approved of his handling of the situation there since January 2004, shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein. On a more emotional level, nearly a quarter of Americans say they’re “angry” about the war.
A new USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll isn’t any better.
Just one in three Americans now say the United States and its allies are winning the war, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. That is a new low, down 9 percentage points since February. Half say neither side is winning.
By a record 61%-37%, those surveyed say the president doesn’t have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq.
Bush’s job-approval rating has suffered, too. His approval rating is 45%, equaling the lowest of his presidency. At 53%, his disapproval rating has reached a new high.
The same poll also showed that Americans now see the war in Iraq as separate from the war on terrorism, a majority say we made a mistake sending troops to Iraq, and a plurality says the war in Iraq has made the U.S. less safe from terrorism.
Will tonight’s revised sales pitch make any difference in rallying support and turning the polls around? Recent history says no. As Salon’s Tim Grieve noted, we’ve seen this movie before.
Check out this report from Fox News: “Seeking to allay fears that the Iraq situation is spiraling out of control, President Bush will tell Americans and the world Monday night that he has a blueprint to create a democratic nation out of the Arab country.”
That was May 24, 2004, and the speech Bush delivered then was widely panned for being long and rhetoric but short on specifics.
Four months and about 250 fallen U.S. soldiers later, Bush tried again. His aides told the networks in October 2004 that the president would be delivering a “major policy address” on the war on terrorism. CNN and MSNBC took the bait and covered it live, but what they got was the switch: As Slate’s Fred Kaplan wrote at the time, “The president announced no new policy, uttered not one new word about terrorism, foreign policy, or anything else. . . . In short, the cable networks were lured into airing an hour-long free campaign ad for George W. Bush.”
Expect more of the same tonight.