I’m not entirely clear on whether we’re supposed to call them “Obamacans” or “Obamacons,” but either way, there’s a small-but-high-profile group of conservatives who, for a variety of reasons, are supporting Barack Obama.
Some of the names are well known in certain political circles, but hardly household names (Doug Kmiec, Jeffrey Hart, Armstrong Williams, Richard Whalen). Bob Novak suggests today, though, that the list may yet include some very big names: “[L]ooming on the horizon are two big potential Obamacons: Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel.”
The prototypal Obamacon may be Larry Hunter, recognized inside the Beltway as an ardent supply-sider. When it became known recently that Hunter supports Obama, fellow conservatives were stunned. Hunter was fired as U.S. Chamber of Commerce chief economist in 1993 when he would not swallow Clinton administration policy, and he later joined Jack Kemp at Empower America (ghostwriting Kemp’s column). Explaining his support for the uncompromisingly liberal Obama, Hunter blogged on June 6: “The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of ‘Weekend With Bernie,’ handcuffed to a corpse.”
While he never would use such language, Colin Powell is said by friends to share Hunter’s analysis of the GOP. His tenuous 13-year relationship with the Republican Party, following his retirement from the Army, has ended. The national security adviser for Ronald Reagan left the present administration bitter about being ushered out of the State Department a year earlier than he wanted. As an African American, friends say, Powell is sensitive to racial attacks on Obama and especially on Obama’s wife, Michelle. While McCain strategists shrug off defections from Bruce Bartlett and Larry Hunter, they wince in anticipating headlines generated by Powell’s expected endorsement of Obama.
While Powell may not be a legitimate Obamacon because he never was much of a conservative, that cannot be said for his close Senate friend Hagel. He has built a solidly conservative record as a senator, but mutual friends see no difference between him and the general on Iraq, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, George W. Bush and the Republican Party. In a speech today at the Brookings Institution, Hagel is expected to urge Obama and McCain to reach out to each other.
And sure enough, Hagel did just that — right before he explained why Obama’s approach to Iran and North Korea is the right one, and McCain’s isn’t.
OK, so Powell and Hagel are unlikely to throw their support to John McCain. But let’s say one or both of these two endorse Obama. Then what?
Novak said McCain’s campaign “wince in anticipating headlines generated by Powell’s expected endorsement of Obama.” But Kevin posed a related question from a different perspective:
[H]ow would the liberal blogopshere react if Powell endorsed Obama? Powell remains broadly popular, and there’s no question that a Powell endorsement would be a huge boost for Obama. On the other hand, lefty bloggers as a group mostly loathe Powell and would groan at the possibility of him having any influence in an Obama administration. That’s sure not change we can believe in.
So: yowls of protest, or a collective shrug because the world isn’t a perfect place and you gotta do what you gotta do if you want to win a presidential election? My guess: it all depends on just how bitterly Powell denounces the Republican Party in his hypothetical endorsement speech. If he sounds a bit like Larry Hunter, liberals will break out the balloons. If he plays the diplomat, expect some grousing.
I think Kevin’s guess sounds about right, though I’d add the response from the netroots might also depend on the likelihood of Powell serving in an Obama administration. If Powell made clear he plans to stay retired, and has no interest in additional public service, the ‘sphere would probably see this as a net plus — Powell’s reputation was severely tarnished during his tenure in the Bush administration, but only among those who were paying close attention. My hunch is he remains a very popular national figure.
His endorsement would carry weight, and the left probably wouldn’t mind if Powell wasn’t actually going to work for Obama. What say you?