You don’t have to embrace modern science to win GOP votes

August 13, 2007

In early May, at the very first debate for Republican presidential candidates, The Politico’s Jim VandeHei opened up a question about modern biology to the entire field: “I’m curious, is there anybody on the stage that does not agree — believe in evolution?”

The camera didn’t show the 10 candidates for very long, but three would-be presidents raised their hand: Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo.

Eric Kleefeld noted that those three candidates ended up doing pretty well over the weekend at the Ames Straw Poll.

Think about this. The combined vote total at Ames for Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo — the three candidates who have professed to not believe in evolution — was 47.1% among these core GOP activists in Iowa.

Sure, there must been some science-based people who voted for these faith-based candidates. But there were probably just as many creationists, if not more, voting for the publicly evolutionist candidates.

And we trust these same Republican activists to run the Iowa caucus, where they’ll pick the man who could be the next president?

It’s a keen observation, but it’s worth keeping a few things in mind here.

Iowa Republicans are some very conservative folks. Quick trivia quiz — in 1987, who won the Ames Straw Poll? That would be crazed TV preacher Pat Robertson. (Indeed, Robertson ended up coming in second in the Iowa caucuses, beating George H.W. Bush rather easily.)

That 47% of these folks would back creationist candidates is kind of predictable. Hell, Tom Tancredo is certifiable and he came in fourth with 14%.

Matt Yglesias, responding to Kleefeld’s post, notes today that it’s distressing to realize just how many Americans reject modern biology, but I’d focus that just a bit — creationism is really big with Republicans. From a Gallup poll in June:

The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

In fact, the problem isn’t that Americans in general are confused, but rather that the GOP is throwing off the curve.

Here’s the breakdown on belief in evolutionary biology by party affiliation:

* Dems — 57% believe in evolution, 40% do not

* Independents — 61% believe in evolution, 37% do not

* Republicans — 30% believe in evolution, 68% do not

So, with that in mind, the results from Saturday shouldn’t be too big a surprise. It’s a Republican audience in a “red” state. I’m actually kind of grateful it was only 47%.

I think on a poll like that, there has to be an answer like “Do you think that humans may have come from evolution, directed by a supreme being?” I think that point of view represents what’s really in a lot of people’s hearts.

The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life.

As I’ve noted here previously, I think this is exaggerated and I think that a lot of people think they have to say this to be a good Christian or to be taken as such, but either don’t believe it have significant doubts that it’s true. People can always be scared that someone who may have influence over their life will read the poll results, even if most of us know that a scenario like that is very unlikely.

  • “Do you think that humans may have come from evolution, directed by a supreme being?”

    My point is that without this answer, the poll results may be skewed.

  • No surprise. Most people have a problem with evolution because they believe that it conflicts with their religious beliefs. If they understood both evolution and the Bible they would find out that they are both compatible.

  • It is still scary as hell especially when you consider that these same republicans couldn’t tell you anything more about evolution than, “it;s a belief that man evolved from apes”, or the notion of creationism than, “God made man in the garden of eden”. That’s all the information they know to support their beliefs. After that they don’t want to talk about it anymore(unless they are members of some fundamentalist group).

    They do not even know what the “missing link” is, or that man and dinosaur did not live at the same time. Their beliefs are based on what they are told and not from what they have learned.

    That is what is so dangerous, that they so easily ignore reasoning that differs from what they already believe. It doesn’t really have anything to do with being president is the main reason it is so easily discarded. But it does mean that the science behind global warming will be impacted by faith rather than reasoning and rational thought. That makes it a dangerous view for a world leader to have.

  • It may be foolish of me to suggest this, but I think the problem with the poll is its use of the word “believe.” The word belief seems to push the debate into the realm of religious faith and seems to predispose the questionee to have to pick whether their religious doctrine is god-based or Darwin-based. If the question posed was “Do you think it is a fact that life has evolved over time on this planet?” I think the results would be increasingly in favor of evolution.

  • Here was Huckabee’s longer response in a subsequent debate:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na4L7k6g0HQ

    This seems to be a bit more sensible in that for him, it’s about belief in God. I am able to reconcile both, so perhaps that’s why. But CB’s point is well-taken: no rational-thinkers need apply here. They just want to keep the American people scared (no matter what is causing the fear…)

  • There’s that word again, believe. I don’t know that I “believe” in evolution, it just happens to be the best explanation we’ve come up with given the facts at hand. Until something better comes along — something that fits the evidence more closely. Where does “belief” fit in?

  • See, the problem with polls like this is that a lot people are complete idiots. Some are Republicans. But I repeat myself.

  • I think we need a better distinction than just Independent. For one thing it makes the two current dominating parties into the default parties with all else lumped under Independent. Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are both Independents which shows how unacceptable the term is. It is sort of like having to define yourself in terms of deism a la a-theist.

  • Petorado: It may be foolish of me to suggest this, but I think the problem with the poll is its use of the word ‘believe.’ The word belief seems to push the debate into the realm of religious faith and seems to predispose the questionee to have to pick whether their religious doctrine is god-based or Darwin-based.”

    It certainly is foolish of you.

    There’s NO SUCH THING as a ‘Darwin-based’ religious doctrine, unless there’s a First Church of Charles Darwin, Sanctified out there I don’t know about.

    Evolution is a scientific theory. Creationism/Intelligent design is religious dogma, unsupported by reality-based evidence.

    Conflating evolution with a religious belief is a favorite tactic of the ID’ers to make their beliefs seem equivalent, “just another theory”.

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