The God machine was a little distracted by the major political events of the week, so this week’s stories have a decidedly political bent. First up, did the “God gap” between Dems and Republicans narrow this year? Well, maybe a little. The front page of the WaPo today notes, “Democrats Win Bigger Share of Religious Vote.” The only problem is that the “bigger share” wasn’t that big.
As the results of the midterm elections sank in this week, religious leaders across the ideological spectrum found something they could agree on: The “God gap” in American politics has narrowed substantially.
Religious liberals contended that a concerted effort by Democrats since 2004 to appeal to people of faith had worked minor wonders, if not electoral miracles, in races across the country.
Religious conservatives disagreed, arguing that the Republican Party lost religious voters rather than the Democrats winning them.
Either way, the national exit polls told a dramatic story of changing views in the pews: Democrats recaptured the Catholic vote they had lost two years ago. They sliced the GOP’s advantage among weekly churchgoers to 12 percentage points, down from 18 points in 2004 congressional races and 22 points in the 2004 presidential contest. Democrats even siphoned off a portion of the Republican Party’s most loyal base, white evangelical Protestants.
“The God gap definitely didn’t disappear, but it did narrow,” argued Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “And it narrowed in part because evangelical voters had major questions about the direction of the country.”
That certainly sounds encouraging, but the news shouldn’t be overstated. When the AP reported this week that “nearly a third” of white evangelicals voted for Democrats on Tuesday, it was hailed as a seismic shift. It really wasn’t. Dems won 25% of the white evangelical vote in ’04, and 28% in ’06. Some on the left are arguing that these results prove Dems are making great gains among this constituency, and many on the right are arguing this proves the GOP is losing its theocratic base. I think they’re probably both wrong.
On the other hand, while white evangelical votes may not be changing much, their attitudes may be shifting in interesting ways.
A new poll from Beliefnet of evangelical Christians found a constituency whose political beliefs are in flux.
Significantly, about 60 percent of those polled in the Beliefnet survey said their views of the Republican Party had become less positive in recent years.
“It’s not that they are soured with the Republican approach to culture war issues like abortion, it’s that they are angry with them on issues such as Iraq and corruption,” said Steven Waldman, editor in chief of Beliefnet.com, a Web site on issues of faith.
As with other Americans, the Iraq war topped evangelicals’ list of electoral concerns, with 22.5 percent citing it as the issue that most affected their votes.
Also of interest, 46% of evangelicals said they believe Bill Clinton was as good a Christian, if not better, than George W. Bush, which is surprisingly high. For that matter, only 17% of evangelicals hold Jerry Falwell in a favorable light. Not bad, not bad.
And before we wrap up This Week in God, a friend of mine noted yesterday that Sen.-elect Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) appears to be the very first self-professed atheist elected to the U.S. Senate. I’m a little hazy on the specifics of Sanders’ faith — congressional directories generally list him as Jewish — but there’s some evidence to suggest that Sanders is, in fact, a non-believer.
The House has its first Muslim, the Senate has its first atheist … three cheers for religious diversity on the Hill.